Championship Openers
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Through the first eight playoff games, home teams have gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. The Giants stopped the bleeding for the visitors with their outright road victory over the Packers on Sunday, helping the team cash generous 3/1 (Bet $100 to win $300) money-line tickets.
Total players riding the ‘over’ run cashed another 3-1 weekend and it could’ve easily been 4-0 if the Texans and Ravens didn’t slow down in the second-half (3 points) of their battle.
Prior to this weekend, Sportsbook.com had the following odds on the four final teams:
New England (5/2)
Baltimore (7/1)
N.Y. Giants (10/1)
San Francisco (12/1)
The “Early Super Bowl Line” was NFC -4.5 but you can be assured the number will move the other way, with both NFC favorites Green Bay and New Orleans getting knocked out of the Divisional Playoff round.
Baltimore at New England
Line: Patriots -7.5 (50.5)
Movement: Depending where you shop, you might’ve been able to get 7 or 8. One major offshore (5Dimes) opened New England at -8 and are offering -9 (+110). The Wynn in Las Vegas opened the total at 49 before adding a hook (49.5) but most other shops have the number at 50.5.
Notes: In the 2009 playoffs, the Patriots were blasted 33-14 at home to the Ravens in the Wild Card round. New England snapped its three-game playoff skid last Saturday with a 45-10 blowout win over Denver. The Pats enter this game with a nine-game winning streak (6-3 ATS), with five victories coming at home. Baltimore was inconsistent on the road this season, producing a 4-4 ledger. Under the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the Patriots are 4-1 in the AFC Championship, the lone loss coming in the 2006 title game to Indianapolis (34-38). Baltimore is 1-1 in its last two trips to the conference finale, with its most recent loss coming to Pittsburgh (14-23) in the 2008 postseason.
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco
Line: 49ers -1.5 (45)
Movement: Most books opened 1, with a few adding some cents (-20, -30) on top. The Greek must’ve received some heavy SF action as they pushed the number to 3 (EVEN). The total was holding steady but took a dip to 44 but has settled at 44.5 points.
Notes: These two teams met from the Bay Area in Week 10 and San Francisco captured a 27-20 victory over New York as a four-point favorite. The first six scores were field goals, but the game ended with four touchdowns. And the Giants turned the ball over on downs on the SF 10-yard line in the final minute. Including Saturday’s upset over the Saints, the 49ers have gone 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS at home this season. The lone loss came in overtime against Dallas (24-27) in Week 2. New York enters this contest on a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. The Giants have produced a 6-3 record away from home, which includes the win over Green Bay in the Divisional Playoffs. These two franchises met in the 2002 playoffs and San Francisco rallied from a 24-point deficit for a 39-38 victory at home. For those who forgot the wild affair, try to remember the 49ers’ prolific combination of Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens.
Championship Angles
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS
It’s Championship Week in the NFL and with it two teams are one win away from playing in Super Bowl XLV in Indianapolis on Feb. 5. Like most football fans nationwide, everyone has an opinion on the teams that figure to advance. Our database does, too. There are generally three schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the final four teams on this week’s card. You can look at them fundamentally, statistically, or you can analyze them technically.
While having varying opinions on which of the four teams will advance, and why, handicappers alike often times speak in foreign tongues. With reasons ranging from players and coaches to fundamentals to situations, the views are many.
But since our database speaks a language of its own, we are limited to asking questions and reading answers germane to our query. Here are answers to five Q&A queries we posed to the database and the answers we found surrounding NFL Championship games.
All results are ATS (Against the Spread) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise.
Q – How have home teams fared in this game?
A – NFC hosts are 22-9 straight up and 18-13 ATS, while AFC home teams are 20-11 SU and 17-14 ATS.
Q –Who is the better money winner, favorites or dogs?
A – Favorites have owned the edge, going 42-19 SU and 35-26 ATS, including 33-17 SU and 32-18 ATS when laying less than 10 points.
Q – How do teams that own the better record perform?
A – As the majority of time these are almost always the home team, the record for teams with a better win percentage are solid, going 40-17 SU and 33-24 ATS. When installed as dogs or favorites of less than 10 points these better record teams are 30-16 ATS.
Q –How has the Over/Under fared in these games?
A – Surprisingly, these games have had a tendency to fly over the total in this round, going 27-16-1 ‘Over’ in games since 1990. More specific, games in which the posted totals have been at the opposite end of the ladder (more than 46 points or less than 41) have gone ‘Over’ in title games to a greater degree. That’s confirmed by the fact that those games with a total of more than 46 points have played ‘Over’ the number in eight of 10 occurrences, while totals of less than 41 have gone 12-4-1 to the ‘Over’ as well.
Q –What wins in conference title games, offense or defense?
A – When it comes to advancing to the Super Bowl one fact is critical: size matters when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard in divisional round playoff games. Teams who score 14 or fewer points in championship games are soon to be extinct as they are 4-36 SU and 5-35 ATS since 1980. On the flip side, those teams who score 28 or more points in conference title games are 32-5 SU and 31-6 ATS over the same span. FYI: home teams that manage put up 28 or more points in this round are an eye-opening 23-0 SU and 21-2 ATS.
There you have it. The database has spoken. Somewhere between its language and yours is a winner or two on this week’s card. Enjoy the games…
Final Week of Playoffs
By Jim Feist
This is it, the final weekend of games before the Super Bowl with the Ravens, Patriots, Giants and 49ers squaring off. The last month we've been hearing about playoff seedings, bye weeks and home field advantage. Are all those things really important? Historically it has been during the second round of the playoffs. Teams with the bye have home field advantage and two weeks to prepare, both of which are usually important edges this time of year.
However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge.
The last three years all five of six home teams (Colts, Saints, Cardinals, Steelers twice) won plus went 4-2 ATS, but notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 21 of 38 NFL title games straight up, and the visiting team is 20-18 against the spread. Going 23-15 straight up is a slight edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.
Within those statistics remember that there have been road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl. Four years ago both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20. Six years ago Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.
In 1995, San Diego was a 9½-point dog at Pittsburgh, but pulled the upset 17-13. In 1999 Atlanta was an 11-point dog at 16-1 Minnesota, yet won 30-27 in overtime, while Tennessee flattened big home favorite Jacksonville, 33-14, in 2000. Nine years ago the Patriots were a double-digit dog at Pittsburgh but won 24-17, and seven seasons ago the upstart Panthers rained on the Eagles' parade in a 14-3 NFC Championship game upset in a somewhat frustrated city of brotherly love.
Those were just the big underdogs that triumphed. Smaller dogs have won in the conference championship games, as well. When Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, they won 27-10 at Philadelphia as a 4-point road dog. In fact, coming into this weekend, the dogs are 14-8 against the spread the last 11 years in the NFL title games. The NFC has seen the dog go 9-3 ATS the last 12 years, including the last two seasons when the Packers covered at New Orleans and the Cardinals were a home do to the Eagles. Philadelphia's trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt. Certainly you can't discount home field advantage, something the Patriots used in consecutive years to beat up the indoor Colts, 24-14 and 20-3 in the Foxboro cold, with the Colts turning the trick at home in 2007. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.
It's difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake -- the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.
Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 24-12 straight up in NFL championship games and 19-17 against the spread the last 18 years. The total is 22-14 "over" during that time (2-0 over last January). Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite. The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as a 2-point home dog. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road dog. Throw in a 16-3 Ravens win at Oakland, a 27-10 Tampa Bay victory at Philly in 2003, the Steelers rout at Denver and the Giants' win at Green Bay last season and the road dogs have packed quite a playoff bite.
Several big favorites have struggled, as well. The Rams were a 13-point favorite over Tampa Bay in 2000, yet needed a late TD to survive, 11-6, eight years ago the 10-point favorite Rams came from behind to squeeze by Philly, 29-24, and in 2008 the Chargers were a +14 dog but stayed all the way in a cover at New England. Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution. The current trend: the favorites are on a 6-2 ATS run in Conference Championship games.
Final Week of Playoffs
By Jim Feist
This is it, the final weekend of games before the Super Bowl with the Ravens, Patriots, Giants and 49ers squaring off. The last month we've been hearing about playoff seedings, bye weeks and home field advantage. Are all those things really important? Historically it has been during the second round of the playoffs. Teams with the bye have home field advantage and two weeks to prepare, both of which are usually important edges this time of year.
However, during the conference championship games that kick off this weekend, history shows us that the two remaining teams in each conference are often on fairly equal footing, both straight up and against the spread. You might think the team with the home field has a big edge.
The last three years all five of six home teams (Colts, Saints, Cardinals, Steelers twice) won plus went 4-2 ATS, but notice that since 1992, the home team has won just 21 of 38 NFL title games straight up, and the visiting team is 20-18 against the spread. Going 23-15 straight up is a slight edge for the home teams, though far from dominant than many might expect to find in the second-biggest game of the season.
Within those statistics remember that there have been road underdogs that not only got the money, but won the game and advanced to the Super Bowl. Four years ago both road teams covered. The Patriots topped San Diego, 21-12, but failed to cover, while the +7 underdog road Giants won at Green Bay, 23-20. Six years ago Pittsburgh was a road dog at Denver, but clobbered the Broncos 34-17.
In 1995, San Diego was a 9½-point dog at Pittsburgh, but pulled the upset 17-13. In 1999 Atlanta was an 11-point dog at 16-1 Minnesota, yet won 30-27 in overtime, while Tennessee flattened big home favorite Jacksonville, 33-14, in 2000. Nine years ago the Patriots were a double-digit dog at Pittsburgh but won 24-17, and seven seasons ago the upstart Panthers rained on the Eagles' parade in a 14-3 NFC Championship game upset in a somewhat frustrated city of brotherly love.
Those were just the big underdogs that triumphed. Smaller dogs have won in the conference championship games, as well. When Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, they won 27-10 at Philadelphia as a 4-point road dog. In fact, coming into this weekend, the dogs are 14-8 against the spread the last 11 years in the NFL title games. The NFC has seen the dog go 9-3 ATS the last 12 years, including the last two seasons when the Packers covered at New Orleans and the Cardinals were a home do to the Eagles. Philadelphia's trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year run by underdogs covering in the NFC championship tilt. Certainly you can't discount home field advantage, something the Patriots used in consecutive years to beat up the indoor Colts, 24-14 and 20-3 in the Foxboro cold, with the Colts turning the trick at home in 2007. However, there is generally greater balance between teams simply because at this point in the season, the remaining four teams are very strong and often evenly matched. In mid-January, you rarely find a team that has glaring weaknesses, for example, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in some offensive or defensive category.
It's difficult for teams with major weaknesses to make the playoffs in the first place, and if they do make it, opposing coaches will attack those weak spots to their own advantage. The cream rises, which is what competition is all about. You also know that teams will be playing at a high level of intensity, as there is so much at stake -- the winners go to the Super Bowl, the losers go home and sulk about what might have been. After such a long season, teams that have come this close to the Holy Grail are going to give everything they have for four full quarters.
Slicing the history another way, we find that the favorites are 24-12 straight up in NFL championship games and 19-17 against the spread the last 18 years. The total is 22-14 "over" during that time (2-0 over last January). Oddly, there have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite. The NY Giants rolled 41-0 in 2001 over Minnesota as a 2-point home dog. In January of 2000, Tennessee ripped the Jaguars 33-14 as a 7-point road dog. Throw in a 16-3 Ravens win at Oakland, a 27-10 Tampa Bay victory at Philly in 2003, the Steelers rout at Denver and the Giants' win at Green Bay last season and the road dogs have packed quite a playoff bite.
Several big favorites have struggled, as well. The Rams were a 13-point favorite over Tampa Bay in 2000, yet needed a late TD to survive, 11-6, eight years ago the 10-point favorite Rams came from behind to squeeze by Philly, 29-24, and in 2008 the Chargers were a +14 dog but stayed all the way in a cover at New England. Still, before you jump on the live dogs, remember that the favorites had a nice run of their own from 1993-97 going 8-2 against the spread in the NFL title games. This is why looking at trends and angles must be approached with great caution. The current trend: the favorites are on a 6-2 ATS run in Conference Championship games.
Total Talk - Championships
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Playoff Recap
The ‘over’ has posted a 6-2 mark through the first eight playoff games and it could easily be 7-1 if the Houston-Baltimore matchup didn’t come to a screeching halt in the second-half. After seeing 30 points posted in the first 30 minutes, the pair combined for three points in the final two quarters.
While that outcome was tough to stomach for some ‘over’ bettors, the toughest beat of the weekend occurred in the Giants-Packers battle. With just seconds left in the first-half, New York added a Hail Mary touchdown as time expired to take a 20-10 lead over Green Bay at the break. Most shops had the first-half total at 27½ points.
Similar to the game results, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the first-half of this year's postseason, while the ‘under’ has produced a 5-3 record in the second-half. And, that number could be 6-2 to the ‘under’ if the Saints and 49ers didn’t explode for a 34-point fourth quarter, 28 of them coming in the final four minutes. If San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t play hero and stays inbounds instead of scoring (the smart play), you might’ve seen three points instead of 21.
Including the second round results, the ‘under’ stands at 122-119-5 (51%) on the season.
Championship History
Let’s preface this section by saying that past playoff history has meant absolutely nothing this year. The Wild Card and Divisional Playoffs used to trend toward the ‘under’ and we’ve seen nothing but shootouts. Ironically, the Championship round has been geared towards high-scoring affairs. Does that mean we should expect some slugfests this weekend?
Looking at the below tables, you’ll notice that the ‘over’ has gone 15-5 (75%) in the last 20 conference title games.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 @ Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 @ Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER
2003-2004 New England 24 vs. Indianapolis 14 43, UNDER
2002-2003 Oakland 41 vs. Tennessee 24 47, OVER
2001-2002 New England 24 @ Pittsburgh 17 37, OVER
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 @ Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 @ Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER
2003-2004 Carolina 14 @ Philadelphia 3 36.5, UNDER
2002-2003 Tampa Bay 27 @ Philadelphia 10 34, OVER
2001-2002 St. Louis 29 vs. Philadelphia 24 49, OVER
AFC Championship – Baltimore at New England
Line Movement: Depending where you play, this game is hovering between 50 and 51 points, with the majority of betting shops holding steady at 50.5.
Quick Analysis: Assuming both teams can put up 24 points and you grab a number of 50.5, you got yourself a clear-cut ‘over’ winner, right? It’s simple handicapping and let's be honest, it’s real tough to argue against the facts. New England’s offense has put up 30-plus points in 13 of its 17 games, including 45 against Denver last week. And before you say Baltimore’s defense is great, let’s delve into those facts too. We understand the Ravens were ranked third in both points (16.6) and yards per game (288), but they haven’t face a dynamic offense or signal caller like Tom Brady all year. The last time Baltimore faced a legit QB, Philip Rivers and the Chargers dropped 34 on the board, rather easily too.
The other side of the total equation is Baltimore, who’s been anything been consistent on offense this season. Last week, bettors watched the Ravens’ attack put up 227 total yards of offense, yet they did score 20 points albeit with two short tracks. Plus the club came up empty with a first-and-goal from the nine-yard line too. The Patriots’ defense is coming off their second-best effort of the season last week when it held Denver to 10 points. Prior to stifling the one-dimensional Broncos, the New England allowed 20 or more points to quarterbacks named Young, Orlovsky, Grossman, Tebow, Moore, Fitzpatrick. Like a lot of other pundits, I’m not sold on Joe Flacco but he’s got weapons and I have to believe he does just as good as the aforementioned QBs.
Trends: Baltimore has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road, while New England has seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Gillette Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the past four meetings between the pair.
Playoff History: The Patriots have played in five conference title games under the Belichick-Brady regime and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2, but the two ‘under’ tickets did take place in Foxborough. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has been in eight playoff games and the 'under' has gone 5-3.
NFC Championship – New York Giants at San Francisco
Line Movement: Unlike the first affair set for next Sunday, this ‘over/under’ has received a ton of interest and it’s safe to say that the oddsmakers put out a bad line. The opener came out at 45 and has since dropped to 42, with a few major offshore outfits adding the hook (42.5).
Quick Analysis: The 49ers defeated the Giants 27-20 in Week 10 at home and the combined 47 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42, which is the same number as this week’s rematch. The game in mid-November started with five field goals and ended with four touchdowns, three coming in the final quarter. It’s hard to see the Giants (37) and 49ers (36) putting up similar numbers like they did in the Divisional Playoff round, especially with expected precipitation in the Bay Area. Also, defense should play a big factor in the second encounter. Since getting exposed by the Saints (49), Packers (38) and Cowboys (34), the Giants’ defense has allowed an average of 14.6 PPG the last five weeks, which includes the 20 they allowed to the league's best offense in Green Bay last Sunday. San Francisco did allow New Orleans to drop 32 on the scoreboard last Saturday, which was an anomaly. During the regular season, the 49ers defense (13.2 PPG) was impossible to score on at home, with six opponents being held to 17 points or less.
Trends: The Giants saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 on the road, while the 49ers have watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 at home.
Playoff History: Prior to last week’s ‘over’ ticket, Eli Manning watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 in his first eight postseason games. These teams squared off in the playoffs of the 2002 season and San Francisco rallied past New York for a 39-38 victory.
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7.5)
Why Ravens cover: In typical Ravens’ fashion, they’ll play the disrespect card for all it’s worth. Baltimore is third in the league in points allowed (16.6 ppg) and yards allowed (288.9 ypg). Plus, the Ravens have been there, done that. They went on the road in the playoffs and pummeled New England 33-14 two years ago. Baltimore 5-1-1 ATS last seven vs. winning teams. Pats 1-6 ATS last seven playoff games.
Why Patriots cover: You did see Tom Brady last week, right? These guys have won nine in a row SU, going 6-3 ATS. All six ATS wins have been double-digit beatdowns, with the smallest margin of victory being 18 points. Ravens have covered in just one of their last five overall and are in a 5-11 pointspread rut in January.
Total (50): Despite Ravens’ stout defense, oddsmakers expect some points to be scored in this matchup. Pats on bundle of over streaks, including 22-6 overall, 21-8-1 at Foxborough and 6-0 in January. The over is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five roadies. Under 7-3 in Baltimore’s last 10 playoff tilts.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Why Giants cover: They just knocked out the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, on the road in very convincing fashion. New York has covered in seven straight road playoff games, including five straight outright wins. Plus, it’s covered in seven of its last eight overall in the postseason.
Why 49ers cover: Nobody better at the betting window all season than the Niners (13-3-1 ATS). And for those questioning their offensive firepower, they stood toe-to-toe with high-octane New Orleans last week and won a wild game. San Fran has No. 2 scoring defense, allowing a meager 14.3 ppg., and that defense will knock the snot out of you, as evidenced by five forced turnovers vs. Saints. The favorite has covered four straight in this rivalry, including 49ers’ 27-20 home win laying four points in November.
Total (42): Giants on under streaks of 4-1 overall and 7-2 in postseason play, but total has gone high in four of New York’s last five roadies, including last week’s game at Green Bay. Over also on upswings for San Fran of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in January and 12-5 inside the NFC. And Niners piled up points in last week’s 36-32 shootout with Saints.
I know one thing from past playoff and superbowl history
# 1 NO team with losing div record ever got to a superbowl NYG went 3-3 with two losses to theeeee wosrt team in div the Redskins and one loss was end of season NYG at home must win game for giants and they lost as 7 point favorite BBQ style 23-10 that game right there i put an X through the Giants they were healthy in week 15 ! I took redskins to cover but when i saw them hammer giants with REX Grossman under center and made Eli look like a doufus all i hve to say is; if that pathetic 4 win team that really was playing to lose at end of year hammered them ! The 49ers defense will have field day in Giants back field knock down mannings passes and stuff both RB's for negative yards !
PLUS This is natural Grass field that will be wet from rain Giants play on artficial new stuff looks like grass but it is not!
Just like saints had trouble moving around so will giants even just a fraction of a second slower with WR's will cause balls to go sailing over thier heads
and possibly into hands of 49ers safeties and CB's
BTW why steelers won at Denver so convincingly : playoff game before Denver beat the def. Champs Patriots !
Giants will follow the History of all Teams after upsetting the Chmaps in playoffs are 0-13 s/u 1-12 ATS your ATS spread winner was Chargers+ 12 @ Patriots who were also 9-7 that year and got home game vs Colts the def champs to win and did exit at Patriots !
O Btw chargers also had a losing DIV record that year 3-3
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
It may have taken a few days, but many bettors finally thought logically after last week’s playoff results had sunk in. The initial line posted on the Patriots was somewhat inflated, a number that began perhaps a point too high.
Las Vegas sports books -- some reluctantly -- opened the Patriots as 7-point favorites over the Ravens and saw an immediate reaction by bettors. The number jumped to -7½, which was caused by the performances from each team last weekend.
The Patriots steam rolled the Broncos 45-10, covering easily, while the Ravens appeared to struggle against the T.J. Yates led Texans and didn’t cover in their 20-14 victory.
“We went over all the ratings and came up with Patriots minus-6 initially,” said LVH Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay who was one of the first to post the line in town, “but we felt we’d test the waters a little bit with a key number and see where it drove us early on and posted it -7.“
“Our first few bets came in on the Patriots and pushed the number quickly to -7½, so we were somewhat justified by the starting number.”
But Kornegay’s initial thought is proving to be correct as the proper price because large Ravens money is starting to come in and has pushed almost every book back to -7 flat.
What we saw last is starting to wear off in the minds of most bettors as they go back to the basics of looking at the straight facts of each squad. What are each team’s strengths and weaknesses?
The Patriots have one of the league’s worst defenses and have blown away mediocre teams all season. Their two toughest opponents, the Giants and Steelers, both beat the Patriots and are the only teams they faced that ended up with winning records.
We just saw a team equal to the Patriots with offensive dominance and similar weaknesses on defense, the Packers, get manhandled at home by the Giants. Defense is proving to be a key cog in football once again, despite being proved wrong all season by dominant offenses rolling through the season with ease.
Tom Brady is one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, but teams that can get pressure on him fare very well and the Ravens put pressure on every quarterback they face.
The big question with your Ravens bet is how much of quarterback Joe Flacco you can stomach. In most of Baltimore’s winning occasions, Flacco has been taken out of the equation. It was only two years ago that the Ravens beat the Patriots 33-14 in a playoff game at Foxboro where Flacco only completed four passes for 34 yards. Running back Ray Rice jumped out big early on and carried the Ravens to a 24-0 lead and the game was history.
For the Ravens to have success this week, most believe Rice will have to be the driving force on offense again and you’ll have to hope you’re not relying on Flacco to make big third-down conversions. Flacco’s own teammate, Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed, even said Flacco gets rattled when pressured which isn’t the type of headline material that the supposed leader of your offense needs to be reading the week before his biggest game of the year.
Ticket counts that include mostly parlays still have the Patriots being bet at a 3-to-2 ratio. However, the straight bet wagers, those that decide when the line will be moved, currently has a slight lean towards the Ravens which means we could be seeing -6½ very soon and eventually -6, which was Kornegay’s initial rating.
You may ask why Kornegay didn’t post his initial thought and it’s a pretty simple answer: you have to adjust and adapt to what’s going on. No matter how strong a personal rating may be, the bookmaker has to know his betting public, what the market will dictate and also respect the key numbers.
Had Kornegay opened the game -6, it would have been rapidly bet up to -7½ without getting any Ravens money. When/if the line comes down, then he’ll have the majority of his bets on the underdog at +6 ½ with most of the favorite money at -7. 90% of the action on this game will come Saturday and Sunday. If the game lands Patriots winning by 7, he won’t be stung as much as he would have been had he opened with his first inkling.
Weather doesn’t figure to play a factor in Foxboro Sunday with minimal winds and temperatures expected in the in the mid thirties, but it’s a much different story in San Francisco where we can expect rain. It’s raining right now, will be tomorrow and then some more on Sunday. Whether or not it’s an edge is yet to be seen, but Jim Harbaugh has team practicing in the conditions.
The 49ers opened Pick ’em last Sunday against the Giants and was immediately bet all the way up to -2 ½ at the LVH Super Book within an hour. The line hasn’t changed all week, despite most of the small money overwhelmingly coming in on the Giants.
Wynn Resort opened the 49ers -1, just a little after the LVH did, and were bet up to -2½ over the same span, but on Thursday they dropped the game down to -2.
The two teams met in Week 10 at San Francisco with the 49ers winning 27-20 as 4-point favorites. Much like this week, the Giants were coming off their biggest win of the year when they knocked off the Patriots 24-20 in Week 9 at Foxboro and then had to travel cross-country to the Bay Area. That Week 10 loss sent the Giants into a four game tailspin.
Bettors have to ask themselves this week what they believe in more, the 49ers model of consistency throughout the year or the current form of the Giants that has essentially won four straight playoff-type games coming in. Quarterback Eli Manning has never looked better in his career, while the 49ers continue to manufacture easy scoring opportunities with aide from a plus-32 turnover margin on the season, including plus-4 last week against the Saints.
Historically, the two teams have been intertwined throughout the playoffs over the last three decades with the 49ers holding a 4-3 mark over the Giants. Some of the all-time great playoff moments have occurred between these two franchises. Unforgettable images such as Jim Burt and Leonard Marshall pounding Joe Montana with viscous hits are routinely replayed. The Giants are 4-0 all-time in conference championship games, including one of those over the 49ers in 1990.
History doesn’t mean much in this game, but seeing those two historically rich teams facing off once again with all the marbles on the line is enough to get any casual fan excited that has watched a football game over the last 30 years. The players change, but the uniforms, cities and fans remain the same.
Perhaps the best value play of the game, if you like the 49ers, is laying -125 (Bet $125 to win $100) on the money-line that the Wynn has offered. For a chance to lay such a small price on a team that has covered the spread in every home game this season, you have extreme value. The value is there, but the hard part is getting the Giants to follow the plan.
Enjoy the games and be sure to check back regularly throughout the next two weeks as I‘ll keep you updated daily on all the Super Bowl line movement and happenings in Las Vegas.
Ravens at Patriots: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7, 50)
THE STORY: Tom Brady and Joe Flacco will have a similar mindset when they lead their teams into Sunday's AFC Championship Game in Foxborough. Mass. Both quarterbacks have plenty of reason to be wary of the Baltimore Ravens' defense.
While Brady is focused on guiding the host New England Patriots to their fifth Super Bowl appearance in 11 seasons, Flacco will be trying to maintain his focus after he was criticized by teammate Ed Reed earlier this week for his play in Baltimore's 20-13 AFC divisional win over the Houston Texans last weekend.
Pro Bowl safety Reed, a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year, said Flacco was “kind of rattled” by Houston's defense and “didn’t look like he had a hold on the offense.” That's not exactly of inspiration needed when going up against Brady, who threw for six touchdowns and guided an offense that produced a franchise playoff-record 45 points in last week's rout of Denver. New England has won all six regular-season matchups between the teams, but the Ravens clobbered the Patriots 33-14 in a playoff game in Foxborough in January 2010.
LINE: The Patriots opened at -9 and were bet down to a touchdown. The total has dropped half a point since opening at 50.5.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies with a slight chance of snow and rain. Winds will blow, ENE, at 5 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the mid 20s.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (13-4, 8-8 ATS): The much-maligned Flacco can become the first QB to win 50 games in his first four seasons. He threw two first-quarter TD passes as the Ravens jumped to a 17-3 lead and held off the Texans. Baltimore’s defense, which ranked third in the league with an average of 16.6 points allowed, forced four turnovers but did not have a sack after leading the AFC with 48 in the regular season. The Ravens need to get RB Ray Rice untracked. He was held to only 60 yards on 21 carries after rushing for 1,364 yards and 12 TDs and leading the league with 2,068 yards from scrimmage. Rice rumbled for 159 yards and two TDs, including an 83-yard scoring run just 17 seconds into the game in Baltimore’s playoff rout of the Patriots two years ago.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (14-3, 10-7 ATS): Brady threw for 363 yards and tied a postseason record with his six TD passes in the 45-10 mauling of Denver. Brady, who sat out Wednesday’s practice with a sore left shoulder, was not sacked in guiding New England to its ninth consecutive victory. Second-year TE Rob Gronkowski hauled in three of Brady’s five first-half scoring passes and finished with 10 receptions for 145 yards. Gronkowski set league records for TDs (17) and receiving yards (1,327) by a tight end this season. Fellow TE Aaron Hernandez had four receptions and added a wrinkle with five rushes for a team-high 61 yards last week. Despite building a 35-7 halftime lead, the Patriots got little out of their ground game. New England’s defense ranked 31st in the league during the regular season, surrendering 411.1 yards per game.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Ravens are 1-3-2 ATS in their last six meetings in New England.
* Under is 11-5-1 in Patriots' last 17 home playoff games.
* Under is 7-3 in Ravens' last 10 playoff games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The last three regular-season meetings between the teams have been decided by a total of 12 points.
2. Baltimore was only 4-4 on the road this season, including a 34-14 drubbing at San Diego in which it looked powerless to stop the passing game.
3. Brady can tie Joe Montana for the most wins (16) in playoff history, and can combine with Bill Belichick to become the first QB-coach tandem to reach five Super Bowls.
PREDICTION: Patriots 26, Ravens 23. Baltimore slows Brady but Stephen Gostkowski wins a field goal duel with Billy Cundiff.
Giants at 49ers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 42)
THE STORY: With quarterback Eli Manning back at practice Thursday after missing one day with a stomach bug, the New York Giants have no reason to feel queasy entering Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the host San Francisco 49ers. Even though they are facing the league's top-rated defense, the Giants are riding a four-game winning streak and carrying the swagger of a team that feels it is destined to win the Super Bowl. “We are not going to be denied at this point,” safety Antrel Rolle said. “We have one (goal in) mind, to win a championship.” New York certainly looked the part after going into Green Bay last weekend and shutting down the league's highest-scoring team in a convincing 37-20 victory over the No. 1-seeded Packers. San Francisco also showed its mettle in ousting the New Orleans Saints 36-32, scoring twice in the final 2 1/2 minutes to sink the NFL’s second-highest scoring team. The Niners have reason to like their chances, particularly since they own a 27-20 victory over the Giants on Nov. 13.
LINE: This line opened at -1 in Las Vegas and has climbed to -2.5 in favor of the 49ers. Action on the total has dropped the number to 42 after opening at 45 points.
WEATHER: There is a 65 percent chance of showers, giving way to an 85 percent chance of thunderstorms later in the evening Sunday. Winds will blow at SSE at speeds of up to 15 mph and game-time temperatures will be in the low 50s.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (11-7, 10-7-1 ATS): New York has permitted only 50 points during its four-game winning streak – a remarkable turnaround after surrendering an average of 36 points in its previous four games. WR Hakeem Nicks has been the star of the postseason for the Giants, hauling in 13 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns. He’s only the third wideout (Jerry Rice, Larry Fitzgerald) with two games of 100 yards and two TDs in one postseason. Nicks changed the momentum of last week’s game by snatching a Hail Mary pass as time expired in the first half. Manning threw for a playoff-high 330 yards with three touchdowns and an interception to improve to 6-3 in the postseason, including a 4-1 mark on the road. DE Osi Umenyiora, who missed the first meeting with the 49ers, had two of New York’s four sacks last week.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (14-3, 13-3-1 ATS): San Francisco allowed an NFC-low 14.3 points per game, but its offense came up huge when QB Alex Smith directed two long scoring drives to KO Drew Brees and the Saints. Smith scored on a 28-yard bootleg with 2:11 to play before throwing the game-winning TD pass to TE Vernon Davis with 9 seconds to play. It was one of two scores for Davis, who turned in a monster effort with seven receptions for 180 yards – a record yardage total for tight ends. RB Frank Gore had 89 yards on 13 carries, his best performance since ripping off five straight 100-yard games from Weeks 4-9. Hindered by injuries, Gore had zero yards on six carries in the first matchup against New York. The Niners sacked Brees three times and picked him off twice last week. Carlos Rogers intercepted Manning twice on Nov. 13.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. When Manning (2004) and Smith (2005) square off Sunday, it will mark just the second time that two quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall will meet in a conference title game.
2. San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh can become the sixth rookie head coach to lead a team to the Super Bowl.
3. The Giants are 4-0 in NFC Championship Games, including a 15-13 win over the 49ers after the 1990 season.
PREDICTION: Giants 20, 49ers 16. New York’s defense has befuddled Atlanta and Green Bay and continues the trend against San Francisco.
AFC Championship Game
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Two years after going to Foxboro and eliminating New England from the postseason in the divisional round, Baltimore (13-4 straight up, 8-8-1 against the spread) returns to Gillette Stadium to take on the Patriots in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops were listing New England (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 50. Gamblers can take the Ravens on the money line for a plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).
Baltimore has only been an underdog once in 17 games this year. The Ravens went to Heinz Field and won at Pittsburgh by a 23-20 score as 3½-point underdogs on Nov. 6.
John Harbaugh’s team advanced to the NFL’s version of the Final Four by capturing a 20-13 win over Houston as a 7½-point home favorite last Sunday afternoon. The 33 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 36-point total.
If you had the Ravens and the ‘over’ like me, you were not a happy camper. Baltimore led by a 17-13 count at intermission, so gamblers only needed one touchdown in the final 30 minutes to cash ‘over’ tickets.
Things were looking good in the third quarter when the Ravens had the ball inside Houston’s two yard line on third and goal. However, Ray Rice was stuffed on back-to-back plays during a gusty goal-line stand by the Texans.
Baltimore added a field goal in the fourth quarter and then held off two potential tying drives by Houston late in the final stanza. Ed Reed’s eighth career postseason interception, which tied him for second in NFL history, was key in the final minutes. When the Texans got one last chance, Reed batted down a Hail Mary pass to seal the victory.
He did, however, turn his ankle on the play and limped off of the field. But Reed has practiced this week and has been declared ‘100 percent.’
The same can be said for New England tight end Aaron Hernandez, who reportedly suffered a slight concussion in last Saturday night’s 45-10 demolition of Denver in the AFC semifinals. Hernandez and his fellow TE, Rob Gronkowski, were the catalysts in the blowout win.
Tom Brady, who sliced up the Broncos secondary for an NFL-record five touchdown passes in the first half alone, finished with 363 passing yards and six TDs compared to only one interception.
Hernandez was a factor rushing and receiving, tallying 63 rushing yards on five carries. The University of Florida product, who was an unfathomable fourth-round steal (grand theft!) in the 2010 NFL Draft, had four receptions for 55 yards and one TD. Gronkowski had 10 catches for 145 yards and three TDs.
New England has won eight of its nine home games, going 5-4 ATS. The Patriots have been single-digit home favorites five times, posting a 2-3 spread mark.
The ‘over’ is 12-5 overall for New England, 6-3 in its nine home games. Meanwhile, the Ravens have watched the ‘over’ cash at a 10-7 overall clip. Even better, they have seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 in their eight road assignments.
We should note, however, that this is the highest total the Ravens have had all season. In fact, the previous high was only 44 ½ in a 34-14 loss at San Diego.
Sportsbook.com has a slew of proposition wagers available. For instance, gamblers can bet on the player who will score the first touchdown. Gronkowski is the favorite with 4/1 odds, while Rice, Wes Welker and New England RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis share 6/1 odds. I think Hernandez is worth a shot for a 10/1 payout (risk $100 to win $1,000).
Joe Flacco’s totals for ‘over/under’ bets are 19½ (completions), 33½ (pass attempts) and 250½ (passing yards), while Brady’s are 25½ (completions), 36½ (attempts) and 320½ (passing yards)
Kickoff is scheduled for Sunday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Joe Flacco threw for 176 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted against Houston. Nevertheless, Reed was critical of his fourth-year QB during a radio interview this week despite the fact that Flacco now has five career postseason victories.
For the season, Brady has a 45/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Flacco has a 22/12 TD-INT ratio.
Rice is the key to the Ravens’ offense with his big-play capability running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. Rice has rushed for 1,364 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He’s also made a team-high 76 catches for 704 yards and three scores.
Rice’s totals for props are 21½ (carries) and 80½ (rushing yards).
Harbaugh has to be hoping for an unexpected contribution from Lee Evans in Foxboro. The veteran WR was expected to play a key role this year, but Evans never got really got into a groove after missing several games early in the season with injuries. However, he made a big play against the Texans and has the speed to stretch the field.
The exact same can be said for the Pats’ Chad Ochocinco, who only played one snap last week against Denver.
Updated NFL futures per Sportsbook.com:
Pats +1220
Giants +325
49ers +325
Ravens +600
My numbers for the four potential Super Bowl matchups are…
New England -7 vs. San Francisco (48½)
New England -4.5 vs. New York (50½)
New York -2 vs. Baltimore (46½)
Baltimore -4 vs. San Francisco (42)
The Giants are 6-2 ATS as underdogs this year, going 5-2 both SU and ATS as road ‘dogs with outright wins at Dallas, at Green Bay, at New England, at Philadelphia and “at” the Jets.
NFC Championship Preview
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The NFC Championship takes place in San Francisco for the first time since the 1997 season as the 49ers look to capitalize off last week's exciting divisional round victory over the Saints. The Giants head cross-country after handing Green Bay just its second loss of the season, but albeit their most devastating blow in a 37-20 rout of the defending Super Bowl champions last Sunday. Now, a spot in Super Bowl XLVI is on the line for a pair of teams that didn't even qualify for the playoffs last season.
For the sixth time since 1996, a conference championship will involve two squads that failed to make the postseason the year before (2008 NFC title game between Cardinals and Eagles last instance). However, San Francisco is obviously the bigger surprise in this spot than New York as the 49ers are in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Jim Harbaugh's club finished off a see-saw shootout by ousting the Saints last Saturday, 36-32 as 3½-point home underdogs to advance to the NFC championship.
Alex Smith was thought of as a bust entering potentially his final season as starting quarterback in San Francisco. The former top pick out of Utah threw for a career-high 3,144 yards this season, while tossing only five interceptions (the fewest among QB's with at least 300 attempts). But Smith finally made a name for himself in the final three minutes with the go-ahead touchdown run and eventual game-winning touchdown pass to Vernon Davis in the waning seconds. Smith threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, while the Niners' defense forced five turnovers for San Francisco's first playoff win since the Steve Mariucci era.
In fact, the Niners eliminated the Giants in the Wild Card round of the 2002 playoffs at Candlestick, 39-38, the last time these teams met in the postseason. San Francisco erased a 24-point deficit to pull off the stunning victory as three-point favorites, the second-largest rally in postseason history. However, the 49ers will face a Giants' club that showcases their own former number one draft pick looking for his second Super Bowl appearance.
The Giants pulled the upset over the top-seeded Packers last Sunday, 37-20 as eight-point underdogs. Manning connected with Hakeem Nicks for a pair of long touchdowns, including a Hail Mary score at the end of the half to give New York a 10-point advantage. The Giants scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to finish off a Green Bay team that had lost only once since Week 15 of last season. With the win, Manning improved to 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the postseason away from home.
New York has been on a roll from an ATS perspective by compiling six covers in the previous seven games since the start of December. Tom Coughlin's squad began the season at 6-2, but had a three-game winning streak halted at Candlestick Park on November 13 in a 27-20 setback to the 49ers. The first six scores came via the field goal as the Niners led 12-6 in the third quarter. The Giants finally crossed the goal line with a Manning touchdown strike to Mario Manningham to give New York a 13-12 advantage heading to the final quarter.
San Francisco burned New York for a pair of touchdowns to run off 15 consecutive points and take a 27-13 lead. The Giants made it interesting with another Manning touchdown to Nicks, but New York's rally fell short as San Francisco cashed as four-point favorites. The victory by the Niners pretty much put the NFC West title away, even though there were seven games remaining in the season.
Both teams weren't convincing from a totals perspective this season, as the Niners finished 9-8 to the 'under,' while the Giants put together a 9-8-1 mark to the 'over.' The 36 points scored by San Francisco last week was the most put up this season, but only the second 'over' cashed at home the past six contests by the Bay. The Giants are riding a 4-1 run to the 'over' the last five road contests, including two matchups with the Packers and Saints.
The weather doesn't seem ideal with a 60% chance of rain on Sunday afternoon, as kickoff temperature is set to be in the mid 50's. The 49ers are listed as 2½-point favorites, while the total sits at 42. The game kicks off at 6:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on FOX.
Conference Championships
Baltimore @ New England - Ravens used to be the Cleveland Browns, before Art Modell moved them over howls of protest; last coach of the "old Browns" was Bill Belicheck, 37-45 in his pre-Brady days. Patriots are 6-1 vs Ravens, but lost to them 33-14 here in playoffs two years ago- Pats won last meeting 23-20 in OT here LY. Flacco is focus for Ravens; figure NE to try and stack against run, forcing Flacco to make plays to beat them. Ravens will try to run ball with Rice and keep Brady off field. Baltimore won 23-20 at Pittsburgh in Week 9, only time it was underdog all season. Over last seven years, #1 seeds are 3-1 vs spread when playing a #2 seed in a conference final. Patriots haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season; they're 4-1 in conference title games under Belichick.
NJ Giants @ San Francisco - #4 seeds are the division winners with the worst record in conference; over last 20 years, #4 seeds are 5-1 SU in conference finals, with four of five wins away from home. Giants (+4) lost 27-20 at Candlestick in Week 10, with Niners' TD drives typically short (50-17 yards); two TDs were 1:01 apart early in fourth quarter. Until then, SF had four FGs, thanks to +16 edge in field position, a big advantage. 49ers are a ludicrous +32 in turnover margin this season, getting five takeaways in last week's narrow escape over the Saints. Giants started eight of nine drives 80+ yards from paydirt in first meeting; they'll need lot better field position here to pull small upset. Giants have edge at quarterback.With rainy weather expected; will the ball keep bouncing the 49ers' way?