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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, December 111th, 2016

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Free Picks for Sunday, December 11th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.

 
Posted : December 8, 2016 12:24 pm
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Vernon Croy

Houston (+6) over Indianapolis

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have the Texans winning this game outright Sunday so we are getting great line value. The Monday Night Football blowout win by the Colts made them look like world-beaters, however the Jets quit on their season in that game and didn't show up at all. This is perhaps the most meaningful game of the Texans season, and unlike the Jets their defense will play extremely hard Sunday. The Texans have allowed the sixth least amount of yards per game (316.1) this season, and the fifth least amount of passing yards. Also, despite what you saw on Monday Night, the Colts defense is terrible, and now they face a Texans offense who is playing for something, so you will not see the same mistakes the Jets made. The Texans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a divisional opponent and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after putting up 14 points or less in their previous game. I look for the Texans to get a big boost offensively against a really bad Colts defense that has allowed 25.9 ppg this season. The Colts are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after putting up 31 points or more in their previous game and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after passing for more than 250 yards in their previous g

 
Posted : December 8, 2016 12:25 pm
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Jason Sharpe

Chicago / Detroit Under 43.5

The Detroit Lions have made some changes on the defensive side of the football since the middle of the season and they've also had a few injured players return to the field as well. These changes have taken the Lions defense from one of the worst in the league at the time to one that hasn't allowed more than 20 in their last 6 games and who's given up the second fewest amount of points during that time. They will face a Chicago Bears offense here that's playing it's third string quarterback in this one. The Lions have also slowed down the pace of their offense over the last few months as they scrapped the no-huddle offense that they played periodically throughout the game. The Bears have only gone above this posted total in 2 of their last 7 contests coming into this one. These two teams faced off against each other earlier in the season and combined for just 30 points in that game. These two teams have also played in 7 divisional contests so far this season, and 6 of those 7 games went 'under' the posted total. Play the 'under' in this one.

 
Posted : December 8, 2016 12:25 pm
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Alan Harris

Washington (PK) over Philadelphia

The Washington Redskins will look to break their small two-game losing streak when they hit the road to take on the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA on Sunday afternoon. The Redskins have posted a 5-1 ATS record in their last six games where they faced a NFC East Division rival and they have gone an excellent 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record. They have also gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss and they have covered the number in eight of their last ten games overall. The Eagles, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Sunday as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team from the NFC East and they have failed to cover the number in five of their last six games overall. Throw in the fact that the Redskins are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings with the Eagles and that they have covered the number in seven of their last nine games in Philly and that's where we'll have our Free Play this week as our numbers have the Skins winning this one outright in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday afternoon.

 
Posted : December 8, 2016 12:26 pm
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Sleepyj

Pittsburgh -2

I think this a great indicator of just how good Pitt is coming down the stretch....The Pitt team that most expected to be a contender needs to show up here....Buffalo might have lost the season last week with a road loss to the Raiders, but the Steelers really opened up a good chance now to surge in the playoff race....Dropping this game for the Steelers would be a killer for them in the playoff race...Steelers defense has played rather well and the offense is getting back into shape now with the offense playing together for an extended period....Buffalo with a long travel back home and the season now sits at 6-6 with three games after this one that are very winnable. Perhaps the Bills look to close out the season winners of three in a row and finish 9-7 on the season....Bills offense is good but I trust Big Ben Vs. Taylor any day of the week...Pitt has won 3 in a row and the defense has been the key to the recent success...Buffalo on the other hand hasn't been very strong on defense...They got lit up for 38 points last week...When the Bills play a team that is actually good, they tend to give up big point totals...I'll grab Pitt to keep it going here laying under a FG...

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 10:09 am
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Rocketman

San Diego @ Carolina
Play: Carolina -1

The San Diego Chargers travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers on Sunday afternoon. San Diego is 5-7 SU overall this year while Carolina comes in with a 4-8 SU overall record on the season. Carolina is 80-48 ATS last 128 games when playing against a team with a losing record. Carolina is 54-28 ATS last 82 games when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. San Diego is allowing 26.6 points per game overall this year, 27.2 points per game on the road this season and 26.3 points per game on grass this year. Carolina is 4-1 SU and ATS last 5 games overall vs San Diego. Looking for the Panthers to finish strong the rest of the season. We'll recommend a small play on Carolina today!

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 10:10 am
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Jesse Schule

Saints vs Bucs
Pick: Under

The Saints will be on the road at Tampa this Sunday, and the bookmakers are expecting plenty of scoring in this one. The total is over 50, which is much higher than it was in the previous six meetings between the two teams. They failed to reach the total in four of those six games, and two games that went over were played at the Super Dome in New Orleans. Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing, but he's coming off his worst game of the season, throwing for 326 yards and three INTs in a home loss to Detroit. The Saints have lost three of their last four games, going under the total in all three of those losses. The Bucs on the other hand have won four in a row, and have allowed opponents to average just 13 points during that span. The Saints seem to score most of their points against the league's weaker teams, which is part of the reason they've failed to reach the total in six straight against teams with a winning record. The under is 7-1 in their last eight games at Tampa Bay, and they've gone under in six of their last eight road games.

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 10:11 am
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Power Sports

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland

The chances for the Browns to avoid the infamy of 0-16 are rapidly dwindling. They are just four games left, but realistically there's probably only two shots where they have a legit chance to win, Dec 24th vs. San Diego and here. This week they are coming off a bye and hosting Cincinnati. I'll recommend to take the points.

It's not as if the Browns haven't been competitive. In fact, they actually outgained the Giants two weeks ago in a 27-13 loss. That game really swung on a defensive score by the G-Men. Despite what the final scores might indicate, they've been competitive in four of the last five games. That doesn't even include close losses to Baltimore, Miami and Tennessee earlier in the year. Robert Griffin III, out since Week 1, is expected to be back this week as the starting QB. Coming off a bye and still motivated to avoid NFL history ('08 Lions only 0-16 team in history), the Browns are a solid value this week. Consider that the "lookahead" line for this game was only +3.5.

The Bengals turned in one of their best performances of the year last week, routing Philadelphia 32-14. But it's "too little, too late" here as a 4-7-1 SU record is probably too big of a hole to climb out of. Even if they were to win out, I'm not sure the Bengals would get into the playoffs. The offense is without WR AJ Green and unlike LW, this is a road game. So far this year, the Bengals are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS away from home. After being darlings at the betting window LY, Cincy is just 3-8-1 ATS overall in 2016. With Browns HC Hue Jackson being the Bengals former OC, might there be a little sympathy on the sidelines? Not sure, but Cleveland is also due to erase an 0-4 SU/ATS slide in this AFC North rivalry.

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 1:19 pm
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Randall The Handle

BEST BETS

Bears (3-9) at Lions (8-4)

At first glance, this pointspread might look a bit high for a Bears-Lions game but it may actually be short. A surprising Detroit team has come out of nowhere to take command of the NFC North. The Packers and Vikings were supposed to duke it out this year for the division, but an MVP-type season from QB Matthew Stafford combined with the Lions’ inspired defensive play finds the Leos with a two-game cushion and just four games remaining. That’s important to know because after this one, Detroit has a tougher sked when it must travel to the Giants, then Dallas before finishing at home to Green Bay. Added motivation is earlier meeting that Bears won by a 17-14 count in Chicago. The Bears are 0-6 on the road and hardly figure to score against a Detroit defence that has not allowed any of its past six opponents to score 21 points. TAKING: LIONS –7½

Cardinals (5-6-1) at Dolphins (7-5)

Don’t be fooled by records here. The Cardinals are simply the better team. We believe the Miami club that was crushed in Baltimore last week was more authentic than the Dolphins team that had gone on a six-game winning streak prior to that embarrassing loss. The Fish have trouble on their offensive line and without RB Jay Ajayi able to control the pace with a solid rushing game, Miami’s 27th-ranked passing attack stands little chance against the league’s third best pass defenders. Flipping that around, Arizona’s David Johnson is a stud back that should be able to steamroll the Fins’ 30th-ranked run defence. Miami has the Jets, Bills and Patriots on deck after this one. A team that lacks maturity such as these Fins may not have its eye on the ball here. The Fish have covered just 10 of previous 45 at home versus teams with a losing record. Bad matchup for the host on this day. TAKING: CARDINALS +1

Saints (5-7) at Buccaneers (7-5)

Do you want the suddenly sexy Jameis Winston spotting points in a hugely important division game or the expert arm and mind of Drew Brees taking the few offered as he attempts to rebound from his poorest performance of the season? This is your typical overreaction game based on last week’s results. The Bucs enjoyed a tidy road win in San Diego while the Saints coughed up a home game to the ascending Lions. The oddsmaker had no choice but to line this one up as shown, but the value lies with the visitor. New Orleans has dominated this series with eight wins in past nine meetings. The Saints have covered seven of their previous nine games, a perfect 6-0 as the underdog. Conversely, Tampa does not relish the favourite’s role nor is it accustomed to it. Bucs have been favoured just twice this season and lost both times straight up including a straight up 37-32 defeat to the Rams! TAKING: SAINTS +3

THE REST

Chargers (5-7) at Panthers (4-8 )

The wheels came off this Carolina team a few weeks ago and it culminated with last week’s lambasting at Seattle. Perhaps this line seems a bit fishy as the mediocre Chargers come for a visit, but that same line also reveals how decimated and poor this host really is. If there were doubts about the Super Bowl loser hangover being a thing, these Panthers have become the poster boys. Since a 17-1 record leading up to last year’s championship, Carolina is 4-9 and have covered just twice in 11 attempts as the favourite. Defensive injuries have played a huge part, but don’t expect Philip Rivers to show any sympathy with his potent offence. Note that favourites after playing Seattle are a meagre 12-28 versus spread. TAKING: CHARGERS +1½

Texans (6-6) at Colts (6-6)

It’s easy to like the Colts here. After all, they barely broke a sweat in a lopsided win at the Jets on Monday night, scoring 41 points in the process while these Texans require three games to accumulate those same amount of points. But with Indy, Houston and Tennessee all tied atop the subpar AFC South, this one will be like a playoff game. While that doesn’t ensure some sort of magical upgrade to Houston’s putrid offence, we only have to look back to the earlier meeting this season, when Texans much-maligned QB Brock Osweiler had more yards, more completions and more touchdown passes than counterpart Andrew Luck in Houston’s overtime win. Have to trust this situation and the near touchdown being dangled. TAKING: TEXANS +6

Bengals (4-7-1) at Browns (0-12)

Robert Griffin III to the rescue! Ha, good one. All RG3 knows about his current mates is that they’ve lost all 11 games since he was hurt in the season-opener against the Eagles. Griffin is not the guy to bail them out. He is a resurrection project playing on an abysmal team. With his fragile history, he may not last the game. Besides, Griffin doesn’t play defence and that’s where Cleveland is most vulnerable. The Brownies rank 31st in points allowed, yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. The Bengals won’t show any mercy as jobs are at stake in Cincinnati after its disappointing year. Browns have had extra week to prepare but they’ve covered just once since Oct. 2 and they aren’t to be trusted. TAKING: BENGALS –5

Steelers (7-5) at Bills (6-6)

The Bills are among a cluster of mediocre teams. A couple of similar types will make the playoffs. In order for Buffalo to have a chance at post-season participation, they’ll likely have to run the table. This figures to be its toughest challenge as Bills will host Cleveland and Miami before finishing at the Jets. The trouble that Rex Ryan’s club is suffering from recently is a leaky secondary. That’s not ideal against Ben Roethlisberger and his apt passing attack. But the Bills will not go away quietly and are usually a tough out at the Ralph. It also helps that Pittsburgh can be erratic as a 9-23 against the spread (ATS) record as a road favourite off a win would indicate. Lean Buffalo. TAKING: BILLS +2

Vikings (6-6) at Jaguars (2-10)

Once-promising Minnesota has suffered a collapse after dropping six of seven. Jacksonville hasn’t tasted success for what seems like forever. It’s tough to put faith in the Jaguars as they have been competitive in several games this season, but they ultimately shoot themselves in the foot, multiple times sometimes. But given the choice, asking Minnesota’s brutal offence to win a road game — and by a margin no less — is not something we’re prepared to do. The Vikings are averaging just 16.2 point per game over this downturn, largely attributed to a 32nd-ranked ground game averaging a paltry 72.4 yard per game. It’s rarely a pleasant journey when backing this host, but in this case, it beats the alternative. TAKING: JAGUARS +3

Redskins (6-5-1) at Eagles (5-7)

After taking off with a 3-0 start and rookie QB Carson Wentz being hailed as the team’s saviour, the Eagles have landed with a thud. Philly has dropped five of six and the playoffs will have to wait for next year. The marketplace is heavily sided to the Redskins here, perceived as a dangerous bunch that can put up abundant points in a hurry. However, there are red flags waving at us. First is Washington’s injury list, which is extensive. Next, we are reminded that this is the Redskins’ third road game in as many weeks, losing both prior to this one. Last, but not least, is Philadelphia’s stellar 4-1 mark on this field including an impressive win recently over a Falcons team that mirrors today’s guest. TAKING: EAGLES +1

Jets (3-9) at 49ers (1-11)

Maybe they can just black this one out. Spot points with a San Francisco team that hasn’t won a game since opening day or accept the few offered with a Jets team that looked like they’d rather be anywhere but on a football field when we painfully observed them this past Monday night? Forced to choose, we’ll lean to the visitor as they own the more talented roster and if they have any pride at all, they’ll look to amend that disgusting performance against Colts. Jets have opted to start QB Bryce Petty for remainder of season, but we won’t expect him to do much as the 49ers are horrible vs. the run and RB Matt Forte should be able to take advantage. TAKING: JETS +2½

Seahawks (8-3-1) at Packers (6-6)

At first glance, it’s startling to see the Packers taking points at Lambeau. That’s only happened four times since Aaron Rodgers has been at the helm of his team with Green Bay covering in three of those four. However, there is good reason for this pointspread. Rodgers’ team has become a one-dimensional unit that relies solely on the talented quarterback’s arm to win games. While that necessity may work against some teams, it is an unlikely winning formula against this Seattle club. The Seahawks can come at its host’s weak defence in an assortment of ways, with Thomas Rawls heating up, QB Russell Wilson in a groove and Seattle’s ninth-ranked pass defence focusing on Rodgers as Green Bay’s ground game is non-existent. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –2½

Falcons (7-5) at Rams (4-8 )

If the Falcons can win in Denver and Oakland, they can certainly win here. At this point, we all know how horrendous and useless Los Angeles’ offence is. This has put undue stress on a talented defensive roster, but as we roll through December, that unit is simply worn out as the eight passing touchdowns relinquished in Rams’ past three games would attest to. Having to win on the road by a touchdown to earn a checkmark is often a lofty requirement, but with Atlanta’s arsenal leading the league in scoring at better than 32 points per game and L.A. ranking dead last by countering with an unimaginable 15 points per contest, prefer going with a visitor that has plenty to play for rather than its inept and demoralized host. TAKING: FALCONS -6

Cowboys (11-1) at Giants (8-4)

You win football games in the NFL by controlling the line of scrimmage and not turning the ball over. Meet the 11-1 Dallas Cowboys. Much has changed for both these clubs since the two met in the season opener. Most obvious is that the Cowboys haven’t lost since and will be looking to avenge that lone defeat. For the Giants, an off-season spending spree to improve its defence seems to be paying dividends as the G-Men are stingy about allowing points, ranking eighth at just 19.8 per game. The concern is New York’s offensive line as it can’t protect Eli Manning or set up the run. Now a key member of the defence is lost for the season with Jason Pierre-Paul shelved. Giants may be up against it. TAKING: COWBOYS –3

Ravens (7-5) at Patriots (10-2)

You could say that the Patriots sleepwalked through their win over Rams last week in anticipation of this one. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have been a thorn in New England’s side over the years, including a pair of playoff wins by Baltimore. While the Ravens may have upgraded their play recently, with four wins in five games, all of the victories were achieved at M&T Bank Stadium with the loss in that set at Dallas. Baltimore’s only road wins have occurred at Jacksonville and Cleveland (2-22 combined). Despite having AFC East all but locked up, New England must keep its focus with competition for top seed in AFC coming from Oakland as the two share the same 10-2 marks prior to last night’s game. TAKING: PATRIOTS –7

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 3:53 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

GREEN BAY +135 over Seattle

Packers have won two straight and a big reason for that is their defense is getting healthy. Green Bay has given up just 13 points in each of the last two games. Offensively, they’ve outscored their opponents 48-26 over that same stretch. The Packers beat the Texans 21-13 last Sunday in a snow game but the winter wonderland was the only noteworthy part of that game. Green Bay is now 6-6 and two games back of the division leading Lions with a Week 17 matchup in Detroit on the horizon. First, the Pack must battle another NFC rival in the Seattle Seahawks and we trust they’ll be up for the task.

The Seahawks had the Panthers dead to rights after just one play on Sunday Night Football. With Cam Newton on the bench, Seattle picked off backup quarterback Derek Anderson on his first pass. That set the tone for the 40-7 rout in favor of the Seahawks. Chris Collinsworth gushed over Seattle all night and made it known that the rest of the NFC should watch out. Didn't he see these guys get physically dominated by the Buccaneers just one game prior? The truth is, Seattle was given a gift Sunday night when Newton was benched like a high school junior. That move deflated the Panthers and they packed it in right from the start. After winning four of their last five games Seattle's stock is sky high. They just destroyed the defending NFC Champions in prime time by nearly five converted touchdowns.

Cashing a bet with the Seahawks on a small key number like -3 might seem appealing but we're not going to bite. Seattle has been favored on the road five times this year with their only win coming at the Jets in Week 4. They've lost at the Rams, Saints and Buccaneers while tying the Cardinals 6-6 in the worst game ever played. Seattle laying points on the road has been a low percentage play this season and with the NFC West all but locked up, playing a game on frozen Lambeau Field isn’t exactly something to get excited about. The Seahawks got the win they wanted badly last week when they whacked Cam Newton and the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. This week they are very likely to be much less focused while the Pack usually thrives at home in December. We’ll play it accordingly.

MIAMI +111 over Arizona

The Cardinals won and covered last week at home to the Redskins but we are not coming off our stance that these Birds are cooked. Arizona is 5-6-1 with delusions that it will still make the playoffs but we're not buying in. Carson Palmer is washed up and he only has eyes for Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals are really just a one man show on offense. Everything they do features running back David Johnson. Johnson is huge in the fantasy game but he doesn't play defense and he can't throw the ball. The Cards have been hot garbage on the road this year where they are 1-4, with their only win coming at San Francisco. They've dropped games in Buffalo, Carolina, Minnesota and Atlanta. They have not only lost those games but they lost three of them by double digits and allowed the Vikes very recently to score 30 points. Allowing the Vikes to score 30 is equivalent to losing by 50 to Jacksonville.

The Dolphins were to talk of the town coming into their Week 13 game at Baltimore. They were riding high on a six-game winning streak with the playoffs clearly in their sights. As we often see when a team's stock is at its highest, an egg is laid and that's precisely what happened to the Dolphins in their 38-6 loss to the Ravens in Baltimore. Miami now finds itself on the outside looking in when it comes to an AFC Wild Card spot. After letting down their many backers last week, there aren't enough life preservers for those jumping off the Dolphins' party boat. When you bet a team that gets blown apart, it is very difficult to come right back on them the following week. However, when a team gets beaten as badly as the Dolphins did, we have to give them a second look. Nothing motivates more than a good swift ass kicking. The Dolphins have quality wins over the Bills and Steelers as a home pooch. The victory over Pittsburgh was by 15 points. The Fish will now face a Cardinals defense that has allowed 30 points or more on the road to every team it has faced besides San Francisco. The huge overreaction to last week’s results by both particiapants here is in full force, as Miami is completely underpriced against a Cardinals team that has been a dumpster fire on the road all season long. Allowing last week’s results to influence you here would very likely be a regrettable mistake. Wrong side favored.

BUFFALO +3 over Pittsburgh

The Steelers are 7-5 after their 24-14 win over the Giants last Sunday. Pittsburgh has won three straight with wins over the Giants, Browns and Colts during this run but when they beat the Colts, Andrew Luck was on the rack so put so weight in that victory whatsoever. Prior to their winning streak, the Steelers lost four straight games. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road at times this season with losses at Baltimore, Miami and Philadelphia. The Steelers defense is not what it's been in year's past and now the defensive line is all banged up. That spells big trouble against the NFL’s number one ranked rushing team, which in turn means a big day for LeSean McCoy. If a team cannot contain McCoy, they likely cannot win in Buffalo.

In Week 13, the Bills blew a 15-point lead and lost 38-24 in Oakland. We can't defend that collapse but there are still some positives in Buffalo. The Bills control the game and often dominate time of possession because of their league leading 162 rushing yards per game. They also have a league leading 23 rushing touchdowns. The Bills are a +6 in turnover differential which makes them a top five unit in that department. Buffalo has been in nearly every game they've played this season. Four of their six losses have come by six points or less. When they win though, the Bills win big with an average margin of victory of 13.6 points. The Bills were a +3 point pooch on the road in Oakland against the Raiders and now they’re almost the exact same price at home to the Steelers? That cannot be but it is based on the results from last week. When talking about over and under-reactions from last week’s results, this one fits right into our philosophies and just might be the best play of the week.

JACKSONVILLE +3 over Minnesota

The biggest story out of Minnesota this week has nothing to do with the Vikings lacklustre play the last two months. Running back Adrian Pederson made it known he’d return to the Vikes this season, “if they were in contention”. What Pederson failed to realize is that his team might have a better chance to make the playoffs if he suited up. This fact was not lost on players and pundits, as AP has been ripped all week for putting his teammates in an awkward, unnecessary spot. The AP talk has only overshadowed how poorly the Vikings have played since going 5-0 to start the season. The Vikings are now two games behind the Lions on their remarkable "to the mountain top and back down to the valley" season. Without Pederson, the Vikes run game has been non-existent. In his absence, Vikings’ running backs have just two rushes over 15 yards. Minny’s run game ranks dead last in the league. It’s not all the RB’s fault though, as the Vikings have been rolling with a patchwork offensive line that’s seen them start six different tackles this season. Quarterback Sam Bradford has been sacked 28 times and he’s averaging just 6.77 yards per pass attempt. The Vikings can’t run, they can’t throw, they can’t score and now they’re spotting road points?

The Jaguars are 2-10 but it’s not nearly as bad as it looks. The Jags have the fourth-ranked pass defense and were able to hold the Broncos to just 206 total yards last week. Prior to that, the Jags had legit chances to win at Kansas City and Detroit. There’s no pressure on Jacksonville coming into this one while the Vikings are in a “must win” spot. Players relish in the role of spoiler and you can bet the Jags know that Minnesota’s backs are against the wall. These two teams appear to be mismatched based on the standings and public perception but they’re closer than one might think and Jacksonville might actually be playing better football right now. A few bounces here and there and the Jags could be 6-6 while the Vikes could easily be 2-10. The Vikes defense won those games early in the season, which masked just how brutal this offense. Nothing has changed and now we’ll take the more balanced of the two teams getting points at home.

CLEVELAND +192 over Cincinnati

The Bengals snapped an ugly six-game winless streak with last week’s victory over the reeling Eagles. Now that the monkey is off their backs, they can get back to losing football games before finishing the season with important games against Pittsburgh, Houston and Baltimore. In other words, beginning next week against their most hated rival, Cinci will have a say in whether or not their last three opponents will make the playoffs. In a season that can be viewed as a write-off, at least the Bengals can look forward to playing the spoiler role. Now for the first time in a long time, the Bengals will play a meaningless game in December before impacting what happens in the AFC playoff picture. We honestly cannot imagine what will motivate the Bengals to show up in cold Cleveland for this meaningless game after winning last week and with those aforementioned games on deck.

As for the Browns, well, there is plenty of motivation mainly because no team wants to go 0-16. That alone will provide the Browns with huge motivation and so will playing their in-state rivals. The Browns come off their bye and our sense is that they are chomping at the bit. It is so ugly and humiliating to be sitting idle for two weeks while the local media and fans kick you while you’re down. Robert Griffin III is expected to start this week though the Browns have yet to confirm it. If it’s not RG3, then it’ll be Cody Kessler but it’s a non-issue as far as we’re concerned. Both QB’s can’t be relied upon but that’s a story for another time. This wager is based solely on the Brownies wanting a win badly and the Bengals likely not giving a hoot. Some will argue that no team wants to be Cleveland’s first victim and while that argument holds some validity, it may not apply here because the Bengals already whacked the Browns once this year and have more important fish to fry over the final three weeks. Besides, the Bengals have been just as bad as Cleveland over the past six weeks and now they have nothing to play for. Cleveland outright is the call.

N.Y. Jets +139 over SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers had the look of quitters last week in the snowy clime of Chicago. The impact of an 11-game losing streak no doubt weighs heavily on the team and we’re not sure they’re capable of rebounding. Colin Kaepernick was yanked from the game last week when three quarters only produced one of five passes competed for four yards. He ran for 20 yards on six carries and having more runs than yards passing is something normally reserved for first year PeeWee leagues. Kaepernick has been named as the starter this week, which was no lock given how bad he looked in Chicago. Just to throw more gas onto the fire, Kaepernick is said to have placed his house in the Bay Area for sale and that he won't be returning to the 49ers in 2017. Funny, isn’t is, that wherever Head Coach Chip Kelly lands, disaster follows. Frisco Chip is unlikely to be back next season. He's been a total failure as an NFL bench boss. His old job at Oregon just opened up and it looks like he can't wait to get back to Eugene. The 49ers rank in the bottom of the league in total offense (30) and total defense (32).

The Jets had a pretty embarrassing performance of their own last week. The difference between their loss and the 49ers loss in Chicago is that the entire football world watched New York get blown out by the Colts, 41-10 at home on Monday Night Football while not many watched the 49ers get whacked on Sunday when there were 10 other games available to watch. There is another difference too. The Jets were blown out by Andrew Luck while the 49ers were blown out by Matt Barkley so let’s recap. The Jets have plenty of talented players and just got humiliated in prime time. The 49ers coach and QB can’t wait to get the hell out of town. Every single player and coach in that Jets locker room is 100% aware of the betting line. Being listed as an underdog against San Francisco is 100 times more humiliating than getting blown out in prime time. If getting blown out didn’t stir the Jets’ juices, being a dog to these dregs will.

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 6:15 pm
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Oskeim Sports

Cincinnati at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland +5.5

Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson named Robert Griffin III as Cleveland's starter for Sunday's game against the Bengals, which is a slight upgrade over Cody Kessler. "It is just an opportunity to get to play in the NFL with a group of guys that do not deserve to be 0-12," Griffin said. "I just want to come in, give the team as much of a spark as I possibly can, have fun and hopefully, we can go 4-0 because that is what we have been working for in this last quarter of the season."

With that said, Cleveland's futility this season is unrivaled: the Browns have lost fifteen consecutive games (going back to last year) and own a league-worst minus-155 point differential. You would have to go back thirty years to find the last NFL team to lose 15 straight regular season games! When Cleveland takes the field on Sunday, it will have been 364 days since their previous win (December 13, 2015 vs. San Francisco).

While Cleveland is 0-12 this season, the Browns are worthy of an investment this week based upon a number of contrarian situations that have been extremely profitable over the years. NFL teams that are winless after Game 6 of the regular season are a profitable 18-2-1 ATS following a bye week since 1980. NFL division home underdogs off back-to-back home losses are 14-6 SU and 17-3 ATS versus .749 or worse opposition.

Since 2003, NFL teams off a win by 17 or more points are a money-burning 381-444-23 ATS (46.2%), including just 245-315 ATS (43.7%) if their blowout win came at home. And, when these teams are forced to hit the road off a 17+ home win, they become a 57% losing proposition against-the-spread.

Finally, Cincinnati's playoff hopes are slim-to-none as a postseason berth would requre, at a minimum, the Ravens and Steelers to both lose three of their final 4 games. Oh, and thew Bengals would have to run the table to even make that scenario possible.

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 6:16 pm
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Teddy Covers

Broncos vs. Titans
Play: Titans -1

There appears to be some confusion in the betting markets regarding how good this Tennessee Titans team actually is. The Titans came into the season with low expectations, after finishing 3-13 and 2-14 in the previous two seasons. Their 1-3 start – the lone win coming in ‘they gave it to us’ fashion in a fourth quarter comeback at Detroit – didn’t exactly get the markets excited about Tennessee’s chances to reverse their recent fortunes.

Since that time, the Titans are 5-3, including impressive upsets over playoff contenders like Miami and Green Bay. Their statistical profile is truly impressive. The Titans are outrushing their foes by 0.7 yards per carry and they have outgained their foes by 0.7 yards per pass attempt as well. Only the Cowboys and Seahawks have a similar profile, two elite teams. Marcus Mariota was named AFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, with a QB rating of 115 over four games. And a late season bye gives the Titans a legitimate ‘freshness’ edge over just about every team in the league; good news for a battle against the physical Broncos defense.

Denver continues to have QB problems. As I write this on Friday morning, it doesn’t appear as if starter Trevor Siemien will be able to suit up on Sunday. Even if he does, Siemien hasn’t been practicing on a regular basis of late; not a QB I trust to excel in this hostile environment. More likely than not, we’ll be looking at the rookie Paxton Lynch as the Broncos starting QB. Lynch isn’t ready – he’s shown us that twice already, with horrific performances at Jacksonville and at home against Atlanta; looking completely lost in both games.

Denver’s defense is capable of winning and covering games all by themselves, just like they did last week against the Jags, with a Blake Bortles pick six being the difference ATS. But the Titans aren’t turning the ball over – only five turnovers in their last eight games. And if Denver doesn’t win the turnover battle by margin, they’ll be hard pressed to cover against a Titans squad primed for a moneymaking stretch run.

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 6:17 pm
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Marc Lawrence

Broncos vs. Titans
Play: Broncos +1

Edges - Broncos: 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS all-time in this series; and 11-2 ATS away off an away game. Titans: 1-11 ATS home vs. AFC West opponents; and 1-7 ATS in 2nd to last home games when facing a non-division foe when off a non-division game. With Tennessee in a huge ’step-up’ game and a puny 2-10 SU and 0-10-2 ATS during the final four games of the season since 2013, we recommend a 1* play on Denver.

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 6:17 pm
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Wunderdog

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Pick: New Orleans +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have reached contender status in a woeful NFC South that is pretty much up for grabs, and this game will go a long way as to which of these teams has a leg up. The Bucs have been amazing over the last month, pulling off four straight wins as a dog, and of course covers. The role will be different this time around as they will take the field on home turf as the favorite. The Bucs have been the poster child for struggling at home where they are 19-41 SU and 20-39-1 ATS since the start of the 2009 season. Nothing has changed this season as they own just a 2-4 SU record here. New Orleans' last four loses saw three come at the hands of 8-4 teams or better in Detroit, Kansas City, and Denver, and they have a much more favorable venue here. The Saints are 8-1 SU against Tampa Bay and have gotten the SU win here each of the last four. And Drew Brees is 17-9 ATS to a line of -1 to +6.

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 6:19 pm
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Bruce Marshall

Denver Pk

Denver QB Trevor Siemian is likely back in the cockpit for the Broncos after missing last week's game vs. the Jags due to a foot injury. Gary Kubiak is opening more of his playbook these days for Siemian, and not sure the low-risk attack the Broncs used when gaining only 206 yards behind rookie Paxton Lynch a week ago will beat many teams other than the Jags. With Siemian, however, the Broncos have had enough offense to beat competent opposition this season. And, in terms of recent crucial-game experience, if Denver doesn't have an edge on Tennessee, you've got a scoop. Marcus Mariota must avoid mistakes vs. the Bronco ballhawks (another pick-six last week by CB Bradley Roby) in order to give the Titans a chance to stay atop the AFC South.

 
Posted : December 9, 2016 6:36 pm
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