College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, October 28th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
NAVY (5 - 1) at S FLORIDA (6 - 2) - 10/28/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 1-0 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST (6 - 1) at UTAH ST (3 - 4) - 10/28/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE (4 - 3) at FRESNO ST (1 - 7) - 10/28/2016, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 28-54 ATS (-31.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 1-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 1-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NAVY vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
Navy is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Navy is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
South Florida is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. UTAH STATE
San Diego State is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games
San Diego State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Utah State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
Utah State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
AIR FORCE vs. FRESNO STATE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Air Force's last 7 games on the road
Air Force is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Fresno State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Air Force
Fresno State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NCAAF Knowledge
Navy ran ball for 753 yards, scored 44 pts/game in beating Houston/Memphis last two games. Middies are 24-10 vs spread as road underdog last nine years, 0-1 this year- their only loss was 28-14 (+7) at Air Force. Navy ran ball for 428 yards LY in 29-17 home win (-7) over South Florida LY. USF is 6-2, giving up 797 YR, 101 points in losses to Florida State (55-35), Temple (46-30). Bulls covered six of last seven games as a home favorite (2-1 this year). AAC home favorites are 4-6 vs spread. Over is 3-1-1 in last five USF games.
San Diego State won last three games by combined score of 85-13 since second consecutive loss to South Alabama. Aztecs are 7-4 in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-2 this year- they ran ball for 336 yards in 48-14 home win over Utah State LY; they were +4 in turnovers, outgained Aggies 429-239. Utah State snapped 3-game skid with win over lowly Fresno LW; Aggies are 1-3 vs spread as home underdogs under Wells, 0-1 this year. Mountain West home underdogs are 4-3 vs spread. Aztecs’ last three games stayed under the total.
Fresno State fired its coach Sunday, which means assistants are updating their resumes for this winter; Air Force option attack is tough to prep for in a normal week. Bulldogs gave up 458 rushing yards in 42-19 loss to Flyboys LY. Air Force lost its last three games, all as double digit favorite, giving up 114 points; AF is 4-8 in its last 12 games as a home favorite. Fresno State is 7-5 in last 12 games as a home underdog, 2-0 this season. Mountain West home underdogs are 4-3 vs spread. Last three Air Force games went over; over is 4-2 in last six Fresno games.
Armadillosports.com
Navy at South Florida
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Navy at South Florida
Navy is unbeaten in AAC play and holds sole possession of the lead in the West Division going into Friday’s showdown at South Florida in Raymond James Stadium. The Bulls were atop the AAC East standings until falling at Temple last Friday night. Now they’re in a first-place tie with the Owls as both schools are 3-1 in league play, but Matt Rhule’s squad owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. Therefore, Willie Taggart’s squad is in dire need of a bounce-back victory, while the Midshipmen are 1.5 games ahead of Memphis and Tulsa, both of whom are 2-1 in conference action.
As of Wednesday, most betting shops had South Florida (6-2 straight up, 5-3 against the spread) installed as an 7.5-point favorite with a total of 63 points. The Midshipmen were +260 on the money line (risk $100 to win $260).
USF saw its three-game winning streak snapped in a 46-30 loss at Temple as a 5.5-point road ‘chalk’ last Friday. The 76 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 58.5-point total. The game had five lead changes until the Owls took the lead for good on a Ryquell Armstead 42-yard touchdown run with 3:53 left in the third quarter. They extended the advantage to 34-23 with Jahad Thomas’s TD scamper before the end of the third and tacked on a field goal to lead by 14 with 10:09 remaining. USF’s Marlon Mack trimmed the deficit to 37-30 with 8:42 left on a 30-yard TD run, but another Thomas TD put the game on ice with 3:17 remaining.
In the losing effort at Temple, USF junior quarterback Quinton Flowers completed 11-of-19 passes for 187 yards and two TDs without an interception. Flowers also rushed for a team-high 90 yards on 14 carries, including a three-yard scoring run that gave the Bulls their last lead with 5:21 left in the third. Mack rushed for 67 yards and one TD on 13 totes. The junior RB also had three catches for 33 yards.
Flowers has completed 117-of-200 passes (58.5%) for 1,717 yards with a 15/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for a team-best 745 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Flowers will look early and often for his favorite target, Rodney Adams. The senior WR has 34 receptions for 502 yards and four TDs.
Mack is USF’s all-time leading rusher already, producing 659 yards and 10 TDs so far this year. Mack (6.8 YPC) also has 13 catches for 121 yards. D’Ernest Johnson is Mack’s back-up who has rushed for 321 yards and four TDs with a 5.4 YPC average.
USF is 12th in the nation in rushing yards (256.1 YPG) and 11th in scoring, averaging 42.4 points per game. The defense has struggled, though. This unit gives up 28.4 PPG and ranks No. 103 among FBS teams in total defense (448.0 YPG).
Navy (5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) has stormed out to a 4-0 record in AAC play. The Midshipmen pulled a stunner on Oct. 8 by beating Houston 46-40 as a 15.5-point home underdog. Josiah Powell’s 34-yard interception return for a TD shifted all the momentum and led to the Cougars’ first loss of the year. Senior QB Will Worth threw a pair of TD passes and ran for 115 yards and one TD on 32 carries.
Navy is off a 42-28 home win over Memphis as a one-point home favorite. Worth was the catalyst with a monster performance, accounting for five TDs and 286 all-purpose yards. Worth completed 3-of-4 passes for 85 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also rushed for 201 yards and three scores on 31 attempts. Dishan Romine added 92 rushing yards on just seven carries.
Worth has completed 37-of-62 passes (59.7%) for 688 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for a team-best 487 yards and nine TDs while averaging 3.6 YPC. Chris High is Navy’s second-leading rusher with 392 yards and five TDs on 55 totes. High is averaging 7.1 YPC. Romine averages 9.2 YPC, producing 258 yards on the ground on only 28 carries.
Senior WR Jamir Tillman is duplicating his 2015 production when he caught 29 balls for 597 yards and five TDs. In 2016, Tillman has 19 receptions for 286 yards and one TD.
Navy has been a road underdog 28 times during Ken Niumatalolo’s nine-year tenure, compiling an incredible 19-9 spread record. However, it is 0-1 both SU and ATS as a road ‘dog this year, losing 28-14 at Air Force while catching seven points in Week 5.
South Florida owns a 7-4 spread record in 11 games as a home favorite during Taggart’s four-year tenure. The Bulls are had covered in six straight home ‘chalk’ spots until beating UConn by a 42-27 count as 20-point favorites two weeks ago.
USF owns wins over Towson (56-20), No. Illinois (48-17), at Syracuse (45-20), at Cincinnati (45-20) and vs. East Carolina. In addition to the aforementioned loss at Temple, the Bulls lost 55-35 to FSU at home as four-point underdogs.
On top of the noted victories over Houston and Memphis, Navy has wins vs. Fordham (52-16), vs. UConn (28-24) and at Tulane (21-14). Going back to late in the 2014 regular season, the Midshipmen have won 22 of its last 26 games with the lone defeats coming against Notre Dame (twice), at Houston and at Air Force.
USF could be without three key players who are listed as ‘questionable’ and didn’t play last week at Temple. Starting sophomore CB Ronnie Hoggins (calf) and starting safety Devin Abraham (thumb) are two of those players. Abraham had 51 tackles and three interceptions in 2015, while Hoggins had 26 tackles, two interceptions and six passes broken up. So far this year in six games, Hoggins had 29 tackles, one tackle for loss, three PBU, one forced fumble and one interception. Meanwhile, Abraham has recorded 28 tackles. The other injured player, WR Ryeshene Bronson, has missed back-to-back contests with a shoulder issue. Bronson has nine catches for 175 yards and one TD this season.
Navy senior LB Daniel Gonzales was lost for the season to a foot injury earlier this month. In the team’s first four games, Gonsales had 23 tackles and one tackle for a loss.
The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-2 overall clip for USF, going 4-1 in its home games. The Bulls have seen their games average combined scores of 70.8 points per game.
The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for Navy, but the ‘under’ has cashed in both of its previous road assignments. Navy’s games have averaged combined scores of 58.8 PPG.
When these AAC adversaries met last season, Navy captured a 29-17 win as a six-point home favorite. The 46 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 51-point tally. USF took a 17-13 lead early in the third quarter and maintained a 17-16 advantage until Navy’s Keenan Reynolds scored on a one-yard TD plunge with 6:58 remaining. Another one-yard TD run by Reynolds with 1:49 left gave the Middies the frontdoor spread cover. Mack was limited to 29 rushing yards and one TD on 10 carries. Flowers connected just 12 times on 20 throws for 208 yards. He was held to 15 rushing yards on six attempts.
Kickoff on Friday night in Tampa is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
There are two other games on Friday’s card: San Diego State at Utah State and Air Force at Fresno State. The Aztecs and Aggies will collide at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network, while Air Force and Fresno State will kick at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
As of Wednesday, most spots had the Aztecs as six-point road favorites with a total of 44 points. This is the lowest total San Diego State has seen this year. Rocky Long’s team has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its road assignments. The Aztecs are 6-1 SU and 3-3-1 ATS. They are unbeaten in three Mtn. West games, taking their only defeat by a 42-24 score at South Alabama as 18.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Utah State (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) has limped to a 1-3 spread record in four games as a home underdog on Matt Wells’s watch over the last four years.
As of Wednesday, most books had Air Force (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) listed as a 14-point road favorite. The Falcons are 12-12 ATS as road favorites during Troy Calhoun’s 10-year tenure, going 1-1 both SU and ATS in a pair of such spots this year. Fresno State has taken the cash in three consecutive outings. The Bulldogs, who are 1-7 SU and 4-3 ATS, have covered the number in both lined home games. They just fired head coach Tim DeRuyter after last week’s 38-20 loss at Utah State.
Wisconsin LB Jack Cichy is out for the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Cichy was the Badgers’ leading tackler with 60 stops, seven TFL’s, two forced fumbles, 1.5 sacks, three QB hurries and two PBU.
Michigan State has lost five in a row both SU and ATS after dropping a 28-17 decision at Maryland as a three-point road ‘chalk.’ The Spartans had never lost four straight on Mark Dantonio’s watch until this season. Now they have to host a Michigan team starved for revenge after last year’s gut-wrenching and improbable home loss to Michigan State on a blocked punt return for a TD as time expired.
Marshall has to be one of the nation's biggest disappointments. After leading the Thundering Herd to three consecutive seasons with double-digit win totals, Doc Holliday's team has fallen on hard times this year. Marshall is 2-5, losing three games outright as a double-digit favorite. The Thundering Herd lost 27-24 at home to Charlotte last week as an 8.5-point home 'chalk.' They are double-digit 'dogs at So. Miss this weekend. Marshall has posted a 1-0-1 spread record in both games as a double-digit 'dog this year.
Here’s what Texas Tech junior QB Patrick Mahomes’ stat line looked like in last week’s narrow loss vs. Oklahoma: 52-of-88 passes for 734 yards and five TDs with one interception. He also rushed 12 times for 85 yards and two TDs.
Texas Tech and Oklahoma shattered NCAA records galore in OU’s 66-59 victory in Lubbock. Both teams produced 854 yards of total offense apiece. Baker Mayfield threw for 545 yards and seven TDs without an interception. DeDe Westbrook had nine receptions for 202 yards and two TDs, while RB Joe Mixon rushed for 263 yards and a pair of scores on 31 attempts. Mixon also had four catches for 114 yards and three more TDs.
Washington State turned a 14-3 deficit into a 31-14 advantage and then held on to win 37-32 at Arizona State. The Sun Devils covered the spread thanks to a 29-yard field goal from Zane Gonzalez with 4:36 remaining. The Cougars have won five in a row and are a perfect 4-0 in Pac-12 play. They will probably be favored in their next four games before facing now-unbeaten Washington at home on Nov. 25. Not only will the Apple Cup be on the line, but a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game will likely be at stake.
Playing for only the second time this year, Gunner Kiel sparked Cincinnati to a 31-19 home win over East Carolina as a one-point underdog by throwing for 348 yards and four TDs without an interception.