NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 27th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
JACKSONVILLE (2 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 4) - 10/27/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE vs. TENNESSEE
Jacksonville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Jacksonville: 8-1 OVER after playing a game at home
Tennessee: 2-9 ATS in home lined games
StatFox Super Situations
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) 29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
NFL Week 8
Jaguars (2-4) @ Titans (3-4) — Tennessee is 1-3 at home, with the win 28-26 over winless Browns; they are 0-3 as home favorites this year, 2-9-1 in last 12 tries overall, Titans are 3-12-1 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points, 0-3 this year. Jaguars are 6-11 under Bradley in games with spread of 3 or less; they’re 7-10-1 in last 18 games as a road dog, 1-1 this year. Jax is 2-4 and they were down 13-0 in 4th quarter in one of the wins. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 meetings, eight of last 10 were decided by 6 or less points. Jaguars lost four of last five visits here, with three of four losses by 6 or less points. NFL-wide, home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread in divisional games this year. Last four Titan games went over total; over is 4-2 in Jags’ last six games.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 43.5)
The Jacksonville Jaguars and host Tennessee Titans entertained loftier expectations this season, but both sputtering AFC South rivals can see a ray of optimism through the gloom and doom as they enter Thursday's contest at Nissan Stadium. Despite losing both division clashes, the host Titans are just one game removed from first-place Houston while the cellar-dwelling Jaguars are 1 1/2 games away from the penthouse.
Jacksonville's Blake Bortles tossed a career-high five touchdown passes in a 42-39 setback to Tennessee on Dec. 6, with Allen Robinson reeling in three of those scoring strikes to highlight his 10-catch, 153-yard performance. Bortles and Robinson are struggling significantly this season, however, with the former accounting for 11 turnovers (nine interceptions) and the latter underscoring his tough campaign with two catches for nine yards in Sunday's 33-16 setback versus Oakland. Marcus Mariota has eight touchdown passes in his last three games and nearly guided Tennessee to its third straight victory on Sunday before a fourth-quarter collapse resulted in a 34-26 loss to Indianapolis. The second overall pick of the 2015 draft, Mariota became the only player in NFL history to have at least 250 passing yards with three touchdowns and more than 100 rushing yards in a single game in his last encounter with the Jaguars.
LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened the betting week as 3.5-point home favorites for this electric Thursday night matchup and the point spread hasn't moved all week. The total hit the board at 46 and has actually come down three full points to 43 by Wednesday evening. View complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for perfect autumn football conditions in Nashville for Thursday night. Partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 60's, virtually no wind (1-2 mph breeze), and humidity levels around 70 percent.
INJURIES:
Jaguars - TE N. Sterling (Prob Thurs, foot), CB A. Colvin (Prob Thurs, toe), T K. Beachum (Prob Thurs, knee), CB P. Amukamara (Prob Thurs, knee), WR A. Hurns (Prob Thurs, neck), RB C. Grant (Ques Thurs, toe), DL J. Odrick (Ques Thurs, quadricep), TE J. Thomas (Ques Thurs, ankle), C L. Bowanko (Ques Thurs, hip), DT R. Miller (I-R, achilles), T L. Joeckel (I-R, knee), S J. Sample (I-R, shoulder), T J. Wells (I-R, thumb), DT M. Bennett (I-R, calf), DE J. Woodard (I-R, achilles).
Titans - TE D. Walker (Prob Thurs, chest), WR T. Sharpe (Ques Thurs, knee), CB C. Riggs (Ques Thurs, hamstring), TE J. Amaro (Ques Thurs, shoulder), LB K. Dodd (Ques Thurs, foot), G Q. Spain (Out Thurs, knee), S R. Johnson (Out Thurs, neck), CB P. Cox (Out Thurs, concussion), T B. Bell (Out For Season, ankle), G C. Warmack (Elig Week 11, finger), G J. Matias (I-R, knee), CB B. Okotcha (I-R, shoulder).
ABOUT THE JAGUARS (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Jacksonville's offense has been slowed by its 30th-ranked rushing attack (76.7 yards per game) and league-worst third-down conversion rate (27.6) to reside 24th in scoring (19.5 points per contest). T.J. Yeldon leads the Jaguars with only 200 yards rushing, although the second-year running back amassed 136 yards from scrimmage (79 receiving, 57 rushing) and a touchdown in his last meeting with the Titans. Tight end Julius Thomas is aiming to record his third touchdown in as many games versus Tennessee and fifth in six outings against a division representative.
ABOUT THE TITANS (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, 5-2 O/U): DeMarco Murray has been Tennessee's primary source of offense, as the 28-year-old has rushed for an NFL third-best 633 yards while his 27 receptions are tops on his own team. The Titans' ground attack could be in question as Quinton Spain (knee) is expected to miss two games, and fellow guard Brian Schwenke didn't distinguish himself after being beaten by his man that resulted in a late fumble by Mariota in the loss to the Colts. Tight end Delanie Walker, who has a team-leading 330 yards receiving and three touchdowns, has reeled in 16 receptions for 201 yards and a score in his last two meetings with Jacksonville.
TRENDS:
* Jaguars are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC South.
* Titans are 5-18-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Titans last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Jaguars are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 59 percent of picks are on the Titans to cover as home favorites while 62 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.
Jags, Titans square off
By Sportsbook.ag
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4 SU; 3-3 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-4 SU; 2-5 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Tennessee (-3.5); Total set at 44
The AFC South gets more cloudy by the week as all four teams are basically within a game of one another. None of the four teams in the division have looked good by any stretch of the imagination and it's likely that the eventual division winner will have plenty of bettors going the other way come playoff time.
We've got a while to go until then though, and Week 8 kicks off with a Jacksonville/Tennessee game that both teams are looking to grab. So who will be the one to take it by playing sound football for 60 minutes?
Tennessee and Jacksonville can't be accused of being a bettor's preferred team to back the past few years, but with all the preseason hype surrounding the Jaguars coming into 2016, it's good to see they haven't burned too much money yet at 3-3 ATS.
Bettors everywhere were expecting the Jags to take that next step forward in their progression and compete for a playoff spot, but a 2-4 SU start has many turning their back on Jacksonville now and chalking up their results as being “the same old Jaguars.” Yet, even at 2-4 SU, they've been in a lot of close games already this year with four of those six contests being decided by four points or less.
Even though the Jags are just 2-2 SU in those games, eventually that experience of knowing what it takes to close a tight game strong will pay dividends for the Jaguars and that turning of the corner everyone expected could be on the horizon. With this week's point spread basically being a pick'em if the game was on a neutral field, this week's game vs. Tennessee could be another nail biter.
Tennessee was expected to be on the upward swing as well this year and a 3-4 SU record does show progress. But the play of the defense in recent weeks has to be a bit concerning as they've allowed 27, 26, and 34 points to the likes of Houston, Cleveland, and Indianapolis.
Other than Indy on offense, none of those teams are particularly strong and the Titans 3-4 SU record could simply be a byproduct of a last-place schedule. This is the third of three straight weeks at home for the Titans, and while that's typically a positive for teams, this Titans team hasn't experienced winning enough to fully take advantage of it here.
The Jaguars are on a 4-0-2 ATS run in this rivalry and are looking for redemption after a really poor performance at home against Oakland last week. Sports outlets were poking fun all week at the Jaguars and that fake punt they allowed vs. Oakland and that couldn't have sat well.
The old saying in the NFL that “nobody is ever as bad as they look one week and nobody is ever as good as they were one week” situationally applies rather strongly here, and I expect the Jags to be at their best. When Jacksonville is sharp on both sides of the ball they can put together some solid performances, and with their last trip on the road being a 17-16 comeback win in Chicago, there may be some good vibes left in those suitcases this week.
Although Jacksonville has struggled out of the gate and not lived up to the preseason hype, there is something there with this team that caused so many to believe in them this year. By no means are the Jags out of the playoff picture yet, and a statement win on the road against Tennessee may have that Jacksonville bandwagon fill up again.
Tennessee is still trying to figure out how to win games and the fact that they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five at home vs teams with a losing record on the road speaks to that. Going even further, Tennessee is 5-18-3 ATS in their last 26 against a losing team and are just hitting the meat of their schedule now.
Although the Jags looked awful vs. Oakland last week, these two teams are about to go in two very different directions and the wrong team is favored here.
Best Bet: Take Jacksonville +3.5 points
NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Jacksonville at Tennessee
This mid-week game between Jaguars and Titans isn't likely to garner much attention from those with a penchant towards sports gaming. But, if your so inclined a few betting nuggets to ponder. Jaguars have a 2-4 ATS slide away vs a division opponent, 2-5-1 ATS stretch vs a team off a loss, 2-4-1 ATS skid as road underdogs vs a team off a loss. On a positive note, Jaguars have been good bets in this series cashing four of six tickets (4-0-2 ATS), eight of the last eleven (8-1-2 ATS) and since TNF went into full swing in 2012, Jaguars are 3-1 SU/ATS in four Thursday appearances. On the other side, Titans not a peg to hang your hopes on in front of the home audience are 2-12-1 ATS last 15 at home, a money-burning 1-16-2 ATS L19 vs a division rival, 1-14-2 ATS off a loss playing a division opponent the next game and have yet to win/cover in three Thursday attempt. Titans 0-7-1 against the betting line as home chalk got to like the +3.0 points currently being offered on Jaguars at Sports Interaction.
TNF - Jaguars at Titans
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3.5, 43.5)
Your eyes will be assaulted tonight, but hopefully the football will be watchable for a change. Week 8 of the NFL season begins with an AFC South clash between Jacksonville and Tennessee, which will feature loud “Color Rush” uniforms highlighting “Titans blue” and the Jags’ mustard-looking gold uniforms that are so ugly even QB Blake Bortles piled on this week about how awful they are.
Of course, critics have been piling on Bortles all month, so maybe he was just returning the favor. The home fan base booed him off the field after his latest poor performance in Sunday’s 33-16 loss to Oakland that was riddled with foolish mistakes and inconsistency. He’s beaten the Colts and Bears this month, but has been intercepted in five of his six starts this season and has largely struggled outside of a few quarters.
Jacksonville is counting on him to put things together against a Titans defense that he threw for five touchdowns against the last time he saw them, putting up three in the fourth quarter alone. He passed for 322 yards but was ultimately outdone by Marcus Mariota, who passed for 268 and ran for 112, including an 87-yard TD run that put an eventual 42-39 win away.
That game was also played in Nashville last December and ended up being Tennessee’s final win in a 3-13 season. The Titans enter tonight’s game looking to surpass that total while getting to .500 at the season’s halfway point, putting themselves in line to tie for the AFC South lead If Houston fails to beat Detroit on Sunday. Mariota has led Tennessee to wins in two of his last three starts, throwing for eight touchdowns and just one interception. He’s rushed for 138 yards in that span and formed a strong connection with RB DeMarco Murray, who has become a driving force in the offense.
Murray has carried 98 times over this month’s four games and ranks third among the NFL’s leading rushers, so he could have a big day in helping take pressure of Mariota. Bortles hasn’t been as fortunate. The Jaguars signed Chris Ivory in the offseason to create a one-two punch with T.J. Yeldon, but that hasn’t really materialized since they’ve combined for 100 yards only once. Tennessee ranks sixth in the NFL in run defense, so Jacksonville’s best chance to grab a road win will ride on Bortles’ right arm.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Season win total: 7.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Odds to win AFC South: 10/1 to 9/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 150/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 300/1
Tennessee Titans
Season win total: 6 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win AFC South: 7/2 to 9/2
Odds to win AFC: 30/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 100/1
LINE MOVEMENT
Both of these teams were considered longshots to get much accomplished when the season began, but belief in them has waned even further. After conference losses last week, the numbers were adjusted for both. Division odds for the Titans opened at 10-to-1, went to 11-to-2 entering Week 1 and are now at 9-to-2. The Jags opened 7-to-2, went to 3-to-1 but are now at 9-to-1 to win the AFC South. Conference odds now have Tennessee at 50-to-1 and Jacksonville at 150-to-1, while winning the Super Bowl are double those numbers, 100-to-1 and 300-to-1 at the WestgateLV SuperBook. As far as this matchup is concerned, the advanced line was set at Titans -3 and most books followed set the opening number there or at Titans -3.5, which is where it sat at every book as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 46.5 but is now down in the 43-43.5 range, though there are 44s available.
INJURY CONCERNS
Both starting tight ends will likely play through pain here. After suffering a vicious hit to the chest from Colts DE Josh McNary that forced him to leave the game, Tennessee’s Delanie Walker is expected to play. Jacksonville’s Julius Thomas missed practice time this week with an ankle injury but will also probably be in the mix. Both guys scored touchdowns last week.
Jags standout WR Allen Hurns has made it back from a neck issue, but Titans rookie Tajae Sharpe is still dealing with a knee sprain. Both teams have concerns in their secondary since Jaguars slot corner Aaron Colvin shined in his debut but then suffered a toe injury, while Tennessee listed safety Rashad Johnson (neck) and corner Perrish Cox (concussion) as out. Starting left guard Quinton Spain (abdomen) has also been lost for about a month, so veteran Brian Schwenke will fill in on the offensive line.
PRIMETIME BUSTS
It’s no coincidence that this total has been adjusted to a lower number than originally expected since the public has been smacked about the face and head with the fact points are hard to come by.
The Thursday night game that opened Week 5, Arizona’s 33-21 win at San Francisco, marks the last NFL primetime game to surpass the posted total. The UNDER is 8-0 since on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights and has prevailed in nine of the last 10. The OVER is 3-4 on Thursday night but has hit only once since the season’s first two weeks. The OVER has hit in all four Tennessee October contests and is 5-2 in the Titans' games, so maybe they’ll be able to combine with the Jags and put a more entertaining product on the field. The OVER is 4-2 in Jacksonville contests.
RECENT MEETINGS
Tennessee 3-2 SU, Jacksonville 2-1-2 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1
12/6/15 Tennessee 42-39 vs. Jacksonville (TEN -3, 43.5)
11/19/15 Jacksonville 19-13 vs. Tennessee (JAX -3, 41.5)
12/18/14 Jacksonville 21-13 vs. Tennessee (JAX -4.5, 39)
10/12/14 Tennessee 16-14 vs. Jacksonville (TEN -4.5, 42.5)
12/22/13 Tennessee 20-16 at Jacksonville (TEN -4, 44)
PROPS
Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Bortles passing yardage prop going over. The Jaguars have struggled to get their ground game going and have tasked Bortles with making an average of over 39 throws per game. Through two road starts, he's passed for 600 yards.
Marcus Mariota completions 19.5: (-120 over, +100 under)
DeMarco Murray rushing yards 88.5: (-110 o/u)
Blake Bortles passing yards 246.5: (-110 o/u)
Allen Robinson receiving yards 68.5: (-110 o/u)
Blake Bortles TD passes 1.5: (-110 o/u)
Marcus Mariota TD Passes 1.5: (-120 over, +100 under)
Total combined sacks 4.5: (-110 o/u)
First score of game will be: (-150 TD, +130 other)
Total points: Broncos 23.5, Jaguars 20 (-110 o/u)
JAGUARS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
Jacksonville is 1-1 in this role this season, stealing a win in Chicago earlier this month with a 17-point fourth quarter. The Jags were 1-7 SU (3-4-1) ATS away from home last season. They haven't won in Nashville since 2013.
TITANS AS A HOME FAVORITE
The Titans are 1-1 straight up (0-2 ATS) in this role in 2016 and were 1-1 last season, going 0-1-1 ATS. The last time Tennessee covered as a home favorite came on Sept. 29, 2013.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 has the Titans as 5-point underdogs in San Diego. The Jaguars are back on the road and have been placed as a 7-point underdog at Kansas City.