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NFL Betting News and Notes Week 8

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NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 8
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com

Plenty of chatter and controversy came out of Week 7 in the NFL. Chatter: Does Tim Tebow stink or not? Controversy: Is mouthy, physical Ndamukong Suh a dirty player? So the football gods have intervened for Week 8, with the Broncos hosting the Lions. We’ll get to that game, but let’s kick off this week’s cheat sheet with Sunday’s early contests:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-9.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Coming off stunning upset of Baltimore as 10-point home underdogs, so they’ve got confidence for this road start. Texans don’t tend to follow success with success, carrying ATS slides of 1-6 off SU win and 4-11-2 after spread-cover.

Why Texans cover: Arian Foster finally back in full form, having gone ballistic in road blowout of Titans (115 yards rushing, 2 TDs; 119 yards receiving, 1 TD). Houston seventh in NFL at 26 ppg; Jags second-to-last at paltry 12.0. Home team 4-1 ATS last five in this AFC South rivalry.

Total (41): The under is 6-1 Jacksonville’s last seven overall, but total has gone high six of last eight Jags-Texans meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-9)

Why Colts cover: Very hard to make case for winless Indy, after 62-7 beatdown suffered at New Orleans last week. But 9.5 a lot to cover for Titans, who stand 17-42 ATS last 59 laying 3.5 to 10.

Why Titans cover: Should be steaming after embarrassing 41-7 home loss to Houston. Have cashed four of last five after SU or ATS loss, and Indy a shell of itself without Peyton Manning. Colts 2-7 ATS last nine overall.

Total (43.5): Over has hit six straight for Colts and four of five for Titans, but in this rivalry, total has gone low 10 of last 12.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Why Vikings cover: Because they may well have best RB in league, as Adrian Peterson (24 carries, 175 yards, 7.3 ypc)) showed against Packers last week, even in losing effort. Peterson takes pressure off rookie QB Christian Ponder, who actually looked pretty good vs. Green Bay.

Why Panthers cover: Cam Newton, another rookie QB, looks way better than many expected this season and was quite efficient in Week 7 win vs. Redskins (18 of 23, 256 yards, 1 TD, no INTs). Carolina has cashed five straight at home and five of six overall.

Total (47.5): Under 6-1 Vikes’ last seven on highway and 8-1 Panthers’ last nine as chalk.

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Why Cardinals cover: That’s a big number for Ravens team that netted just seven points in Week 7 loss to lousy Jacksonville unit. And coming off Monday night games, Baltimore in 2-7 ATS rut the following Sunday.

Why Ravens cover: Coach John Harbaugh should be livid at team’s effort in Jacksonville, and squad should be spitting nails by time Cardinals get to town. Arizona has dropped four in a row ATS (five in a row SU), and Baltimore on ATS upswings of 6-1 after non-cover, 4-1 at home and 8-3 laying points.

Total (43): Under 5-1 in Cards’ last six roadies, but over 5-0 with Ravens off SU loss.

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-10)

Why Dolphins cover: Well, if we must, Giants not much to write home about at home, with current ATS dives of 2-5-1 overall and 4-10-1 laying points.

Why Giants cover: If it’s possible, Miami might actually be worse than 0-6 record. Fish haven’t covered all season (0-5-1) and in fact haven’t cashed a ticket in last nine outings (0-8-1). Dolphins could be minus Matt Moore (ribs), meaning just-signed J.P. Losman could be starting.

Total (43.5): Much like state of franchise, trends are all under for Dolphins, including 5-0 overall (all as a pup) and 18-6 on road, while Giants on over surges of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 giving points and 4-1 after bye.

New Orleans Saints (-13) at St. Louis Rams

Why Saints cover: Just shelled one winless team, whitewashing Colts 62-7. Now they get to play another. Also getting lots of help from man upstairs – Sean Payton relegated to coaches booth with broken leg. Sacrificial Rams have neither won nor covered all year (0-6). St. Louis also 1-5 ATS last six at home dome.

Why Rams cover: Well, Saints have a couple noteworthy negative ATS streaks: 6-14 after SU win, 3-10 vs. losing teams and 1-4 on road.

Total (47.5): Saints trend over (league-best 34.1 ppg) while Rams trend under (league-worst 9.3 ppg). But in this rivalry, over hit six of last eight overall and seven of last eight in Gateway City.

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-6)

Why Redskins cover: Mike Shanahan needs win to take some heat off in D.C., after back-to-back SU and ATS losses and mess at QB position. And road not bad spot for Washington, even after loss at Carolina last week – Skins 4-1 ATS last five as visitor and 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as road pup.

Why Bills cover: Bye week has worked out well for Buffalo last six years, as squad has come back to go 5-1 ATS. Bills also good bounceback, at 5-1 ATS last six after pointspread loss and 6-2-1 ATS last nine coming off SU defeat.

Total (45.5): Redskins on boatload of under streaks, but over has hit in seven straight for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bills.

Detroit Lions (-3) at Denver Broncos

Why Lions cover: After consecutive SU and ATS losses – both at home, no less – desperate to prove 5-0 SU and ATS start no fluke. And Ndamukong Suh and Co. will be aching to bust up Tim Tebow. Denver awful against number, at 5-12-1 last 18 overall and meager 7-18-2 last 27 at Mile High.

Why Broncos cover: Tebow notwithstanding, Denver has no positive ATS trends. But Detroit 3-7-2 ATS last dozen vs. losing teams.

Total (42.5): Both teams tend play to over, which is 5-0-1 Lions’ last six roadies, 4-0 Broncs’ last four at home and 11-1 Denver’s last 12 against winning teams.

New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Why Patriots cover: Tom Brady and his offense had two weeks to prep for Steelers. And Bill Belichick’s troops own this rivalry SU (7-2 last nine) and ATS (8-2 last 10 overall, 6-1 last seven in Pittsburgh), including 39-26 road win last November getting 4½.

Why Steelers cover: Defending AFC champs solid in rare role of home ‘dog, cashing six of last seven in that spot. QB Ben Roethlisberger putting up Brady-esque numbers, with nine TD passes and one INT over last three games, including five-TD effort vs. Tennessee in Week 5 and three-TD outing last week at Arizona.

Total (50.5): With these two offenses, pretty hard not to see this game going high. Over on tears of 9-3 for Pats on highway, 8-3 for Steelers overall, 7-1 in this rivalry and 5-0 when Steelers host Pats.

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-9)

Why Browns cover: Not much to tout about this middling, non-descript Cleveland team, but Niners are coming off bye week, and in that spot, San Fran on 1-5-1 ATS dive.

Why 49ers cover: Haven’t lost against oddsmakers all season (5-0-1 ATS) and coming off big road win vs. previously unbeaten Detroit. Somehow, Jim Harbaugh getting real offensive production (27.8 ppg, fifth in league) from squad that averaged just 19.1 ppg last year (24th).

Total (38.5): Under on 5-1 surge with Browns a ‘dog, but Niners on several over stretches, including 6-2 overall, 5-0 by the Bay and a stout 13-3 off the bye.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

Why Bengals cover: Seattle is thinner than Lindsay Lohan at QB, with banged-up starter Tarvaris Jackson –often awful even when healthy – and backup Charlie Whitehurst. Cincy among league’s best lately at betting window, at 8-1 ATS last nine.

Why Seahawks cover: As bad as they are, have cashed four straight at home – all as underdog. And Cincy apparently allergic to chalk, at 7-21 ATS last 28 in that spot.

Total (37.5): Pretty low number makes over worth looking at. Total has gone high five of last six for Bengals and 13 of last 17 for Seahawks.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Why Cowboys cover: First off, how often can matchup of 3-3 team (Dallas) and 2-4 team (Philly) be a marquee contest? Such is state of NFL right now. Cowboys might have uncovered next great RB in DeMarco Murray (253 yards last week). Dallas thrives as pup, covering seven in row overall and five straight in roadies, and they’ve beaten Philly at betting window last five meetings.

Why Eagles cover: Can’t afford loss and surely want to stick it to NFC East rival, having dropped four of last five to Pokes SU. Eagles rested up after bye and on 4-1 ATS uptick following week off.

Total (50.5): It’s a big number to top, but both teams have offensive weapons to put up points. Betting Dallas to go high has been great move lately, with squad on over streaks of 16-5 overall, 7-2 in roadies, 7-1 after spread-cover and 6-1 after SU win. That said, Eagles 13-3 to the under last 16 after bye.

San Diego Chargers (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Why Chargers cover: Snatched defeat from jaws of victory last week at Jets, so should be plenty riled up against AFC West rival. Chiefs blew out Raiders on road last week 28-0, but K.C. doesn’t follow up well on such routs – 1-4 ATS last five after win of more than 14 points.

Why Chiefs cover: Home team and home fans surely amped up for “Monday Night Football” appearance. Have beaten bookies four straight games, starting by cashing as huge 14½-point dog at San Diego in 20-17 loss. Plus, Chargers and Arrowhead not exactly like pizza and beer, with Bolts just 4-9-1 ATS last 14 trips to Kansas City.

Total (44): Under has hit in five straight home games for Todd Haley’s troops; over 19-6-2 Chargers’ last 27 as road chalk.

 
Posted : October 27, 2011 9:30 pm
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NFL Week 8

Colts (0-7) @ Titans (3-3) - Both teams coming off horrific losses, Colts losing 62-7 in Superdome, Titans 41-7 at home to Texans in whats was game to decide first place in AFC South. Indy won last five series games (30-28/23-20 LY); the average total in last three meetings is 48.3. Colts are 1-3 as road dogs, losing on foreign soil by 27-7-7-10 points; they've been outscored 73-17 in second half of last four games. Tennessee is 0-2 as favorite this year, 6-9-1 in last 16 games as home favorite; they allowed 14 or less points in their wins (by 13-3-18 points), 16-38-41 in losses. Underdogs are 0-3 vs spread week after playing the Saints. Over is 5-1 in Indy's last six games, 4-1 in Titans' last five.

Jaguars (2-5) @ Texans (4-3) - Jaguars played their hearts out in 12-7 win over Baltimore Monday night; at one point this season, they were 0-5 vs spread and trailed 17-3 at half in the sixth game at Pittsburgh, then outscored Steelers 10-0 in second half, so they've only allowed seven points in last six quarters of play. Texans allowed 13 or less points in their four wins, 40-25-29 in losses- they're 5-3 in last eight games as home favorite. Home team won eight of last ten series games; Jags lost five of last seven visits here, with all five losses by 13+ points; over last 7+ years, they're 20-11-1 in last 32 games as a road dog. Under is 6-1 in Jacksonville games, 5-2 in Houston games.

Vikings (1-6) @ Panthers (2-5) - Minnesota led five of seven games at halftime, but they've been outscored 120-39 in second half this year; Vikings are 1-5 vs spread as pre-bye underdog, 6-9-1 in last 16 games as dog overall. Panthers are 2-0 as favorite this year, only two games they've won (covered five of last six). Vikings allowed 39-33 pts in last two games; Arizona is only team they held under 22 points, and are only team Vikings beat. Underdogs are 0-2 vs spread the week after playing Green Bay. NFC South home favorites are 5-2 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North teams are 4-1 as underdogs, 3-1 away from home. Over is 5-2 in Carolina games, 4-2 in last six Viking games.

Saints (5-2) @ Rams (0-6) - This could be ugly, with red-hot Saints coming off of 62-7 win, Rams missing QB Bradford for second week in row, and 1,000's of Saint fans likely to make trip to St Louis to root on their team. Rams are 0-6 vs spread this year, getting outscored 103-16 in first half of last five games, losing home games 31-13/37-7/17-10- they're crippled at CB, bad thing to be against a pass-happy Saint squad that won five of last six games but is just 1-3 vs spread on road, beating Carolina 30-27/Jaguars 23-10. Last three St Louis games stayed under the total. NFC West home underdogs are 1-5-1 vs spread in non-league games. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-4, 1-2 on foreign soil.

Cardinals (1-5) @ Ravens (4-2) - Baltimore has amazing 33-8-1 record as home favorite vs non-divisional opponents, but ton of pressure on their offense after a hideous showing on Monday in Jacksonville. Ravens are a bully team; all four of their wins this year are by 15+ points- they're 3-0 as home fave this season. Arizona lost its last five games, last two by 34-10/32-20 scores after three real close losses- they're 2-8 as a road dog since Warner retired. Ravens are 10-7 vs spread in game following their last 17 losses; former Cardinal WR Boldin meets up with his old team here. All three Arizona road games stayed under the total. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-11-2, 5-6-1 on the road.

Dolphins (0-6) @ NJ Giants (4-2) - Second trip to Swamp in last three weeks for Miami, which is 1-2 as road dog, losing by 1-10-18 points- they're winless, but Fish lost two games (Browns/Broncos) in last minute- last week they were the first team since '70 49ers to lose a game they led by 15+ points with 3:00 to play. Hideous home loss to Seattle in Week 5 shows you can't trust Giant club that is 6-11-1 in last 18 games as home favorite- they allowed 27-36-24 points in last three games, but Big Blue won last three post-bye games, scoring 44-34-41 points. NFC East home favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 3-2 against the spread.

Redskins (3-3) vs Bills (4-2) (@ Toronto) -
Buffalo is 5-0 in series since losing Super Bowl 26 to Washington, with four of five wins by 14+ points; this game is in Rogers Centre in Toronto, so no home field edge for Bills' squad that is 3-0 in Orchard Park this year, scoring 38-34-31 points. Washington lost both games since its bye, turning ball over seven times (-5) on 21 drives; they're 1-2 on road scoring 17.7 ppg, with only win at winless Rams. Teams are 2-4 SU week after playing Carolina. NFC East teams are 5-3-1 vs spread in non-divisional games this season. Five of six Buffalo games went over total; four of last five Redskin games stayed under.

Lions (4-3) @ Broncos (2-4) - Home team won six of eight series games; Lions lost last three visits here- their only win in Denver was in 1971. It snowed this week in Denver, so weather could be an issue. Detroit lost its last eight pre-bye games, covering once in last seven; league-wide this year, pre-bye favorites are 4-1. Tebow makes Broncos funky team; they completed less than 50% of their passes in last two games, but they ran ball for 162-183 yards. NFC North clubs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional road games, 2-2 when favored; AFC West home dogs are 2-1. Over is 5-0 in games involving teams that played Miami the week before; last three Detroit games stayed under.

Patriots (5-1) @ Steelers (5-2) - Pittsburgh covered five of last six as home dog but are 8-12-1 vs spread in game after their last 21 wins. Patriots won last eight post-bye games, 2nd-longest streak ever (Eagles won last 12); they won five of last six visits here, winning 39-26 LY. Steelers are 1-6 vs Brady, but they did win last three weeks, outscoring foes 55-13 in first half- they're 3-0 at home, allowing only three TDs on 29 drives. AFC North home dogs are 4-2 vs spread in non-divisional games. Average total in last seven series games, 52.7. Post-bye road teams are just 2-6 SU so far this season, but all but one were underdogs. Steelers scored 7-10 points in only games they've lost this season.

Browns (3-3) @ 49ers (5-1) - No one thinks Cleveland is any good, but they've been favored to win five of six games this year; they've scored 17 or less points in five of six games, turning ball over once in all six games (+2 for year). 49ers won/covered last four games prior to bye; challenge now is to keep momentum. SF forced 3+ turnovers in four of six games; they're 2-0 as favorites, winning by 16-45 points when favored. NFC North underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in its non-divisional games. Three of last four Browns games stayed under total. 49ers ran ball for 164-213-203 yards last three games. Cleveland won both games in this series, 20-7/13-12, but series is played once every four years.

Bengals (4-2) @ Seahawks (2-4) - Huge trap game for Cincy and its rookie QB, they won/covered last three games before bye, and held last four opponents to less than 300 yards total offense. Seattle split last four games, losing 30-28 at home to Falcons, 6-3 at Cleveland- they're 6-27 on third down last two games. Bengals are 2-9-1 in last 12 post-bye games; since '91, they're 0-4 as post-bye favorite. Seattle got seven takeaways (+3) in its two wins, one (-6) in their four losses; they're 9-5-1 in last 15 games as home dog. Home team won four in row and seven of last ten series games, with Bengals losing last three visits here, by 3-17-3 points. All three Cincinnati games went over the total.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Eagles (2-4) - Philly has NFL record, winning last 12 games after a bye, covering six of last eight as post-bye favorite, but they've lost four of last five vs hated Cowboys- five of last eight series games were decided by 4 or less points. Road team is 7-5 in last 12 series games; Dallas won four of last six visits here, winning 20-16/14-13 last two years. Five of six Cowboy games were decided by 4 or less points; Pokes are 1-2 on road, with dogs covering all three games. Philly lost four of last five games before bye- they held teams to 13 points in both wins this year, allowed 35-29-24-31 in losses. Home faves in divisional games are 8-8 this season, 0-2 in NFC East games.

Chargers (4-2) @ Chiefs (3-3) - First rematch of season; Chiefs lost 20-17 at San Diego in Week 3 (+14.5), 7th win in last eight series meetings for Chargers, who've won three of last four visits here, but KC is 3-0 since then, winning as an underdog in all three games. Home underdogs are 7-4 in divisional games so far this season. Chargers are 1-2 on road this year, losing at Patriots/Jets, with a 29-24 win in Denver- they've been outscored 31-6 in second half of their last two games. San Diego is 22-11-3 vs spread in game following its last 36 losses. 6-10 in its last 16 games as road favorite. Kansas City covered its last three tilts as a home underdog. Three of Chiefs' last four games stayed under total.

 
Posted : October 28, 2011 8:19 am
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Tip Sheet - Week 8
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Week 8 card is showcasing plenty of hefty favorites, especially in the early kickoffs. The Titans, Texans, Saints, Giants, and Ravens are all laying at least eight points, while New Orleans is the third team to be listed as a double-digit road favorite this season. Will all the 'chalk' continue to rise, or can some of the league's also-rans cash with points to spare?

Dave Mason of BetOnline.com breaks down the effects of long favorites, "As far as booking these games is concerned, you really have to trust the number and of course keep an eye on who the sharps are backing and adjust accordingly. Although it hasn't been the most profitable football season, the double-digit dogs have been making us money as they are 8-5 ATS. One thing you'll be sure of, when the double-digit favorite covers, we'll lose a ton (last Sunday's Colts-Saints), but when the double-digit dog covers, we'll win a ton (last Monday's Ravens-Jaguars). Just have to get the sharpest number and realize we'll win some and lose some, but at the end of the season we'll be up."

We'll start in Tennessee with a pair of division rivals both looking to bounce back from a horrible effort last week.

Colts at Titans (-8½, 43½)

Indianapolis suffered by far the most embarrassing loss seen in the NFL in a decade as the Colts were steamrolled at New Orleans, 62-7. Jim Caldwell's team remains winless at 0-7 as they hit the road inside the division to take on the Titans. Tennessee is fresh off a humiliating home defeat to Houston, 41-7, to drop to 3-3 and second place in the AFC South.

The Colts have won each of the previous five meetings in the series, even though Tennessee covered both games last season as an underdog. Despite falling to Houston last week, the Titans still own a solid 7-4 ATS record the last 11 home games against AFC South foes. On the flip side, the Colts are 0-4 ATS the past four away games against division opponents, while cashing only two of their previous six road contests.

Jaguars at Texans (-9½, 40½)

In the second AFC South matchup on the Week 8 schedule, both Jacksonville and Houston are coming off underdog victories last week. The Texans pulled into first place inside the division by breaking a two-game skid in a blowout of Tennessee, while the Jaguars snapped a five-game skid in an ugly Monday night win over Baltimore. Jacksonville seeks back-to-back victories for the first time since last December, as the Jags are 3-1 SU/ATS the past four meetings in the series.

These two teams hooked up for one of the best finishes of last season when David Garrard's last-second Hail Mary pass gave Jacksonville a thrilling 31-24 triumph over Houston as one-point favorites. Garrard is gone now, as Blaine Gabbert is coming off a 93-yard effort and nine completions in the 12-7 win over the Ravens on Monday. The Texans and Jaguars are known for high-scoring affairs as the 'over' has hit in six of the previous eight meetings.

Saints (-13½, 48) at Rams

New Orleans put up a jaw-dropping 62 points last Sunday night against Indianapolis, including 34 before halftime. The Rams' offense has scored just 56 points - in six games total this season, while former top pick Sam Bradford is likely to be sidelined for the second straight week with a sprained ankle. Now, New Orleans looks to keep its foot on the accelerator prior to back-to-back division games against Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

The Rams have been the worst ATS team in the league since last December by covering only one of their previous 10 games, including seven straight defeats in that department. The Saints aren't the greatest wager away from the Superdome recently, going 4-9 ATS since the start of 2010. Sean Payton's club owns a dreadful 1-9 ATS mark the past 10 opportunities on the highway against non-division opponents.

Cardinals at Ravens (-12½, 43)

This isn't necessarily the Anquan Boldin bowl, but the former Arizona receiver sees his old team for the first time since getting traded to Baltimore in 2010. The Ravens' offense shut down in a 12-7 defeat at Jacksonville, gaining just 16 yards in the first half (including one passing yard from Joe Flacco) and 146 total yards for the game. Baltimore tries to improve to 4-0 at home with a win over an Arizona squad that hasn't tasted victory since Week 1.

Arizona's defense has been shredded the last three games by allowing an average of 32.3 ppg to the Giants, Vikings, and Steelers. The Cardinals haven't responded well against AFC opponents in Ken Whisenhunt's tenure with a 2-5-1 ATS record the last eight games in interconference action. Baltimore is profitable in games against NFC opponents, compiling a 5-2 ATS mark, including a blowout at St. Louis in Week 3.

Dolphins at Giants (-10, 43)

Miami is one of three winless teams remaining in the NFL as the Dolphins try to put last week's 18-15 overtime setback behind them. The 'Fins blew a 15-0 lead in the final three minutes of regulation to fall to 0-6, as Tony Sparano's club makes their second trip to Met Life Stadium in three weeks. The Giants are fresh off the bye, looking to improve to 5-2 after beating the Bills two weeks ago.

Since scoring just 14 points in the opening week loss at Washington, Tom Coughlin's team has tallied at least 25 points in each of the previous five games, while the 'over' has cashed in each of the last three contests. New York hasn't been a great home favorite recently, owning a 5-11-1 ATS ledger the previous 17 games, including a 2-4-1 ATS mark against AFC opponents. The Dolphins' offense is near the bottom of the league, resulting in a 5-1 record to the 'under.'

 
Posted : October 28, 2011 10:50 am
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Total Talk - Week 8
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 7 Recap

The ‘under’ produced a 7-6 mark last week and for the most part, the outcomes were pretty clear cut. The majority of games that were on pace to go ‘over’ or ‘under’ at halftime stayed the course for the entire game. There were a couple tough beats. Carolina led 9-6 at the break and then outscored Washington 24-14 in the second-half for the 33-20 win. After seven weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 53-47-3 (53%).

System Plays

The “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system sets up again this week with Indianapolis visiting Tennessee. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. It’s been hitting 70 percent (26-11-2) over the last seven seasons and is 1-1 in 2011. Five more matchups left, which are listed below:

Week 12 – Arizona at St. Louis, Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore

BYE Notes

Two weeks ago, the ‘under’ went 6-0 with teams coming off a bye and last week the ‘over/under’ went 3-3 in games with rested teams. So far, the ‘under’ is 9-3 and some are buying into the new NFL collective bargaining agreement , which stipulates that teams must give players four consecutive days off during the bye week . No studying, no meetings, no film watching, nothing. Kevin Rogers broke down the SIDES and the numbers are telling.

The six games this week that feature teams off the bye are below:

N.Y. Giants vs. Miami: Dolphins have seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 but the Giants have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1. New York has put up 25 or more in its three games at home this season.

Buffalo at Washington: Something might have to give in this matchup too, with the Redskins (4-2) being an ‘under’ team and Buffalo (5-1) an ‘over’ machine so far. This game will be played at Rogers Centre from Toronto, Canada. (See Internaional Notes)

Cincinnati at Seattle: Even though this is the lowest total on the board (37.5) in Week 8, the Bengals have watched the ‘over’ go 4-2 behind rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. One of those ‘under’ tickets for Cincinnati came against another NFC West opponent, San Francisco. This will be just the third home game for Seattle, with the total going 1-1 in the first two.

San Francisco vs. Cleveland: Here’s my simple handicapping take on this game. Cleveland has had three totals listed above 40 and three below. In the games at 39.5 or less, the ‘over’ is 3-0 and conversely the ‘under’ is 3-0 in games at 40 or more. On Sunday, the number is hovering around 38. And, make a note that the 49ers have scored 33, 24 and 48 in their three home games this season, all ‘over’ winners.

New England at Pittsburgh: Great game to watch, tough to handicap. You can argue both ways for the sides and the total too. Patriots’ offense is a juggernaut and Tom Brady will be a very tough test for a Pittsburgh defense that hasn’t faced an elite quarterback this season. The Steelers put up 445 yards and 32 points last week albeit against a weak Arizona defense. The two teams met last year, with New England blasting Pittsburgh 39-26 at Heinz Field.

Philadelphia vs. Dallas: (See Under the Lights)

International Notes

We noted in last week’s Total Talk that the ‘under’ in the London series has been a good ‘under’ look and sure enough it hit again with the Bears-Buccaneers matchup. In the five regular season games played across the pond, the ‘under’ stands at 4-1. This week, the NFL International Series continues with Buffalo and Washington going head-to-head from Toronto.

2008: Miami 16 Buffalo 3 – Under 43
2009: N.Y. Jets 19 Buffalo 13 – Under 37
2010: Chicago 22 Buffalo 19 – Under 41.5

The sample size isn’t that large, but all three previous encounters went ‘under’ the number and Buffalo is winless too. Will the trends reverse in 2011?

Under the Lights

I think it’s safe to say that New Orleans just scored on Indianapolis again! Putting up 62 in an NFL game is nuts, especially when you do the research. Last season, the Raiders and Eagles were the only two teams that were able to eclipse the 50-point barrier. According to my research, Jacksonville was the last team to drop 60-plus and that came in a 2000 playoff win (62-7) over Miami. The quarterback for the Dolphins was Dan Marino, which says enough. Even though the SNF game was an easy ‘over’ the MNF affair between the Jaguars and Ravens was a solid ‘under’ play. Make a note that games on Monday’s have watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight and four of last five. Through seven weeks, the ‘over’ is 10-5-1 (67%). This week, we have two divisional games on tap for Week 8.

Dallas at Philadelphia: This total opened at 51 and has been dropping since, all the way to 48 at some offshore shops. The Eagles will be playing just their third home game of the season, the first two losses to the Giants (16-29) and 49ers (23-24). The Dallas defense is a legit unit, holding its last four opponents to 19.5 PPG and that number goes to 15.8 PPG if you take away Tony Romo’s gift touchdowns to Detroit in Week 4. Last year, the total went 1-1 with the ‘under’ cashing in Philadelphia.

San Diego at Kansas City: The Chiefs and Chargers have watched their last three encounters go ‘under’ the number, including their first meeting this season. San Diego beat Kansas City 20-17 at home in Week 3. The game was 10-0 at the half and the combined 37 points never threatened the closing total of 44 1/2 points. This week’s number is in the same neighborhood.

Fearless Predictions

It looks like we’re starting to find some consistency, meaning we haven’t lost two weeks in a row. Unfortunately, we haven’t won two weeks in a row either. Thanks to the Steelers’ offense and Cardinals’ defense, we produced a $200 profit last week. And of course the London game helped us with an ‘under’ ticket too, although it got sweaty late. Heading into the weekend, the deficit stands at $80. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New Orleans-St. Louis 46.5

Best Under: Cincinnati-Seattle 37.5

Best Team Total: Under Carolina 25.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Under Minnesota-Carolina 56
Over New Orleans-St. Louis 37.5
Under Cincinnati-Seattle 46.5

 
Posted : October 29, 2011 9:44 pm
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