NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, September 26th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
ATLANTA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) - 9/26/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta at New Orleans
Atlanta: 8-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
New Orleans: 6-15 ATS as a favorite
NFL Week 3
Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (0-2) – New Orleans is 15-5 in last 20 games of this rivalry; they beat Falcons 31-21/20-17 LY. Atlanta lost four of its last five visits here. Saints lost first couple games by total of 4 points- they didn’t allow offensive TD LW, after giving up 35 points to Oakland in home opener. NO is 4-10-1 in last 15 games as a home favorite. Falcons scored 59 points in splitting first two games; they’re 6-4 in last ten games as a road dog- they have allowed eight TDs in first two games, four on plays of 23+ yards. Saints are 7-10-3 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Underdogs are 12-2 vs spread in Atlanta’s last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Week 3 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Atlanta at New Orleans: This NFC South clash means everything to the Saints. Either they pull off a victory that renews hope in the Crescent City and rejuvenates the belief that having Drew Brees under center is like having a chip and chair or despair sets in early. The alternative, very simply, would feature finger-pointing. New Orleans would come out of Monday night 0-3, winless in two home games and very unhappy since blame could be laid anywhere. Sean Payton’s defense let it down in the season-opening loss to Oakland, while his offense managed a single touchdown in New York last Sunday. The Falcons are on the road for a second consecutive week and swept both games in this situation last season, winning in Weeks 2 and 3 at New York and Dallas en route to a 5-0 start. New Orleans swept the 2015 meetings.
MNF - Falcons at Saints
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Week 3 card wraps up at the Mercedes Benz Superdome on Monday night with an NFC South battle. The Saints have stumbled to an 0-2 start, even though the two losses have come in the final seconds. Meanwhile, the Falcons rebounded from a Week 1 home setback to the Buccaneers to beat the Raiders as a road underdog last Sunday. Will the Superdome provide the Saints with some Monday night magic or will the Falcons spoil the party in the Big Easy?
LAST WEEK
New Orleans squandered a double-digit lead in its 35-34 Week 1 setback to Oakland in spite of racking up more than 500 yards of offense. The Saints’ defense improved in Week 2 by holding the Giants’ offense out of the end zone. However, New York returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown and tacked on three field goals to edge New Orleans, 16-13. The Saints managed a cover as 3½-point underdogs, in spite of accumulating 288 yards offensively. Drew Brees’ passing numbers dropped from 423 against Oakland to 263 yards against New York, while the Saints cashed their fourth consecutive road UNDER since last season.
Atlanta has played a pair of high-scoring contests so far, cashing OVERS against Tampa Bay and Oakland. The Falcons traveled to the west coast and took care of business against the Raiders in a 35-28 victory as four-point underdogs to improve to 1-1. After Oakland grabbed a 14-13 lead early in the third quarter, Atlanta scored three touchdowns to put the game away and move its record to 6-2 ATS as an underdog under Dan Quinn. Matt Ryan torched Oakland’s porous defense with 396 yards and three touchdown passes, while Atlanta rushed for 139 yards, one week after being held to 52 yards against Tampa Bay.
LINE MOVEMENT
New Orleans opened as 3½-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook, but that number has dropped to three at many spots with no juice on the Saints at that number. Meanwhile, some books have listed the Saints at -2½, but you have to lay -120 to back the home team. The total is set at 53½ at most books, while several outlets have the total sitting at 54.
MARCHING FORWARD
The Saints swept the season series from the Falcons last season, including a 31-21 triumph as three-point home underdogs to hand Atlanta its first loss after a 5-0 start. New Orleans used an early blocked punt return for a touchdown, similar to Steve Gleason’s blocked punt that led to a score in the Saints’ victory over the Falcons in 2006 to re-open the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina.
The Falcons couldn’t pick up revenge in the final matchup of the season, losing at home to the Saints, 20-17 as six-point favorites. New Orleans has won and covered four of the past five meetings at the Superdome, while the Saints are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 matchups in the series.
NOT SO SUPER
The Superdome is one of the top home-field advantages in the NFL. However, the Saints haven’t defended their home field well from a betting perspective the last few seasons by compiling a 4-10-1 ATS mark as a favorite since 2014. In 2013, New Orleans owned a terrific 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS mark in the Big Easy, but the Saints have actually lost 10 of their past 14 home contests since November 2014.
OVER THE HILL
The Falcons closed out last season with 10 consecutive UNDERS, but have started the 2016 campaign with a pair of OVERS. Atlanta has finished UNDER the total in each of the past three trips to New Orleans, but those totals closed at 53½, 56, and 52½. Monday’s total is set at 53½, as the Falcons are 8-2 to the UNDER in their past 10 opportunities with a total of 50 or higher since 2014.
COOL AS ICE
Since Matt Ryan took over at quarterback for the Falcons, Atlanta has performed well as a Monday night underdog. The Falcons have compiled a 4-1 ATS record in five opportunities as a Monday ‘dog, including an outright victory over the Eagles in Week 1 last season. However, three of those covers came as a double-digit underdog, while Atlanta has lost five straight primetime games to New Orleans since 2009.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on this NFC South matchup, “Falling to 0-3 is well documented to present a great challenge to making the playoffs in the NFL making this a critical Monday night home game for the Saints. The pressure on the 1-1 Falcons may be just as great, however. Atlanta was competitive in Dan Quinn’s first season finishing 8-8, but Atlanta wound up just 1-5 in division games and Quinn is now 1-6 vs. NFC South foes after losing at home in the opening week against Tampa Bay.”
“Through two weeks, Ryan has the league’s #1 quarterback rating and he could build on those numbers against a New Orleans defense that has allowed 336 passing yards per game on 8.5 yards per attempt so far this season. Atlanta’s pass defense hasn’t been significantly stronger as a Saints offense that has posted 6.4 yards per play this season could also have great results, but it is the Falcons leading the league with 7.0 yards per play through the first two weeks with 355 passing yards per game as the Monday night total is understandably the highest of the week,” Nelson notes.
FUTURES
The Saints opened the season at 40/1 odds to win Super Bowl LI at the Westgate, but those odds have ballooned to 100/1 following the 0-2 start. Meanwhile, the Falcons were also listed at 40/1 when the season began, as their odds fell to 80/1 after splitting their first two contests.
Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 53.5)
The New Orleans Saints will commemorate one of the more noteworthy games in franchise history when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night in a matchup of longtime NFC South rivals. It will mark the 10-year anniversary of the re-opening of the Superdome after the venue was forced to close for one season in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
While emotions certainly will not be as high as in New Orleans' win over Atlanta a decade ago, the Saints can use any edge to avoid an 0-3 start after dropping their first two games by a combined four points. "This is an important division game," said New Orleans coach Sean Payton, readily acknowledging the significance is far less than the game from 2006. "One team is 0-2 and trying to get a win, and another team that's 1-1." The Falcons rebounded from a 31-24 home loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1 with a 35-28 road win last week at Oakland, which squeezed out a 35-34 victory at New Orleans in the season opener.
LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 3-point home favorites for this divisional clash. The spread held fairly solid all week until a drop to -2.5 on Saturday afternoon. The total opened at a lofty 53.5 and has yet to move off the origianl number. Click here to view complete line history.
POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+2) - New Orleans (+4) + home field (-3) = New Orleans -1
KEY INJURIES
Falcons - WR M. Sanu (Probable Monday, ankle), WR J. Jones (Probable Monday, calf), WR J. Hardy (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB B. Reed (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB B. Campbell (Questionable Monday, ankle), LB P. Worrilow (Out Monday, groin), CB J. Collins (Eligible Week 5, suspension).
Saints - WR W. Snead IV (Questionable Monday, toe), DE C. Jordan (Questionable Monday, knee), LB D. Ellerbe (Questionable Monday, quadricep), S K. Vaccaro (Questionable Monday, ankle), T T. Armstead (Out Monday, knee), TE J. Hill (Early October, ankle).
WEATHER REPORT: There is a 25 percent chance of thunderstorms in the New Orleans area for Monday night, but that shouldn't be much of an issue underneath the roof of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Tricky situation as the Falcons have fared well as a visitor in this series, going 27-10 ATS since 1978, but the Saints are 29-8 SU and 25-11-1 ATS at home under Sean Payton against foes off a win. Stronger edge may lie in the total as Atlanta has played OVER in 4 straight Monday away appearances, while New Orleans is 5-1 OVER in their last 6 Monday Night home games." - Coverts Expert Marc Lawrence.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Matt Ryan had his fewest touchdown passes (21) since his rookie season in 2015, but he off to a fast start with 730 yards passing with five scores and one interception while leading the league with a 121.4 quarterback rating. There is cause for concern in the passing game with star wide receiver Julio Jones sitting out his second straight practice Friday due to a calf injury, but Atlanta coach Dan Quinn said he expects him to play. The Falcons are receiving solid production from the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who have combined for 181 rushing yards and 11 receptions. Atlanta's defense ranks 29th overall, allowing an average of 412.5 yards per game.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): New Orleans was horrendous on defense last season and little has changed -- it ranked 31st in the league with a staggering 451.5 yards surrendered and has been torched through the air for an average of 336.0 yards. Keeping the defense off the field would be easier if the Saints could crank up their running game, with lead back Mark Ingram producing 88 rushing yards on only 21 attempts, including nine carries in last week's 19-16 loss at the New York Giants. "From a rushing standpoint, I think we had some early positive runs, and all of a sudden we end up with the game over and only 13 rushing attempts (overall)," Payton said of the Week 2 loss. "I don't like the balance there." Quarterback Drew Brees has a potent receiving duo in Willie Snead and Brandon Cooks, who have combined for 27 catches and four touchdowns.
TRENDS:
* Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC South.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South.
* Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. NFC South.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Saints last 7 home games.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the home favorite Saints at a rate of 65 percent and the Over is picking up the majority of the totals wagers with 75 percent.