College Football Betting News and Notes Week 1

Week One CFB Thoughts
By Dave Essler

UMass-Wisconsin: OK, a line of 45 and a total of 53. I guess they figure that UMass won't score. Correlated play here, perhaps. With the Badgers have T-Tech the following week, this one has 48-3 written all over it. Badgers bring back way too many starters to think to much about taking those points, and UMass brings back nobody, basically. I thought about taking those points given that UMass at least PLAYED in Ann Arbor.

Central Michigan-Michigan: Opened in places at 34.5 and down now to 31.5 or so. People probably suspect that Michigan will take it easy w/Notre Dame in week two, and I suspect that they will. However, CMU has some serious issues and after that Outback Bowl loss, I suspect the Wolverines are not going to screw around much here, and CMU may not score.

Buffalo-Ohio State: Buffalo's defense is one of the better ones, if there is such a thing, in the MAC, and they bring most everyone back. Under rated team early, IMO. However, the Buckeyes have something to play for now. They played UGA pretty tough last year in week one, and clearly with the Miller hype there's points built into this line. With a total of 56 they're clearly expecting Buffalo to score.

La Tech-NC State: With a big total like that you'd have to think NC State could cover this. Line hovered either side of 14, and I actually think the Wolfpack will not be as bad as some think, losing their QB. They've got transfers and experience, and a better than average (for the ACC) defense. La Tech brings back nobody from a team that could score on anyone but had no defense. NC State could cover this, and if I were them I'd worry more about Richmond (ATS) the following week.

FIU-Maryland: What has happened to Coach Cristobals' team and bright future. I get that losing a 28 year old quarterback and TY Hilton has an effect, but to be 20 point dogs to Maryland is saying something. I know the Terps bring back a lot of people, but they just didn't have an overly viable offense last year. However, Edsell should have them that much better, and this may be a big number for a reason. With a total of 50, I do lean Terps with their renewed enthusiasm.

Northern Illinois-Iowa: Nothern Illinois brings back far too many people and their QB not to be considered here. The very fact that they are only +3 on the road to an Big Ten team pretty much sums that up. Their only regular season loss last year was to these guys, at home, by one. Iowa brings back a lot of a decent defense, no offense, team. Low scoring game that Northern Illinois could win.

Temple-Notre Dame: Irish by more than four touchdowns with a total of 50. So, are they saying Temple finds a way to score, or that the Irish name the score. With Michigan in week two, the Owls do bring back a lot of people from a team that wasn't as bad as their record indicated last year, and only two years removed from "very good". Not laying those points here.

BYU-Virginia: One of the better, potentially, matchups this week. I know how good BYU can be. What I do worry about here is that it's going to be hot and humid here, and that's certainly not what Utah is like. Given that UVA is breaking in a new QB, I lean to the under in this one, and almost because of the weather, like BYU 1H and perhaps UVA 2H if the score is right.

Troy-UAB: This is not your father's Troy team that could and did score at will, and they bring back nobody. If this were in UAB I'd have to think that UAB would be favored, so all tradition aside, I like UAB here. Most likely the last team with the ball wins, but 64 is a lot of points for teams with so few returning starters. Troy beat them 39-29 at UAB last year, and I think UAB returns the favor here.

Cincinnati-Purdue: Line opens at about 7 and total disrespect for a Big Ten team since it's now -10. Honestly, I do not know how Purdue is going to score much this year, or any year since Drew Brees left. Bearcats bring back almost their entire offense, and a team that took Louisville to OT on the road (if memory is right) last year. I guess the only real question here is if the line has gone too far. Honestly, I think 49 points is probably too many, if for no other reason than Cincinnati plays at Illinois the following week, which I suppose could leave the back door open. Nah.

Kentucky-WKU: Total disrespect for Kentucky here. Line opens at -7 or so on the road and now down to -4.5 or so. I know Kentucky is simply not an SEC team, and they DID beat Kentucky last season in Rupp Arena. OK, on the football field. WKU has the Vols in Knoxville in week two. Hilltoppers actually had a closed practice today. I didn't know Sun Belt teams actually did that. I suppose there's a reason this line is where it is, and the game is actually in Nashville, at LP Field. If Kentucky loses this game (they might) they should get kicked out of the SEC.

Miami (OH)-Marshall: This is not Matthew McConaughey's Marshall team, and I just don't know how they're 20 point favorites to too many people. But, they do bring back most everyone from an offense that was first in the nation in passing yards. However, they DO lose Antavious Wilson and Aaron Dobson, they second and third leading receivers. And Miami (OH) couldn't stop anyone last year, and is breaking in a new QB, so perhaps the Herd do roll here.

Mississippi State-Oklahoma State: Griff? I happen to think the Cowboys do win this game going away. It's in Houston, so there may be a few MSU fans that make the trip, but this game means much more to Gundy and the Cowboys. Beating an SEC team on national TV, soundly, is not something they'll disregard here.

UL Monroe-Oklahoma: So the Sooners lose their quarterback and the vast majority of their defense, yet their ranked about 12th in the Nation, yet only 23 point favorites at home to a Sun Belt team. Clearly it's what I see as a weak schedule. ULM brings back nearly everyone, and from a team that's used to playing big time teams on the road. Of course they beat what was Arkansas LY, almost beat what was Auburn, and pushed Baylor. There's simply no chance of my laying those points.

Texas State-Southern Miss:Texas State goes from nowhere, to the Sun Belt Conference. I saw that some books opened this at -10 or more, and it's settled at a little over a TD most places. Clearly much of that is So Miss' next three games, which are against Nebraska, Arkansas, and Boise State, all on the road. I would say it's imperative for the Golden Eagles to win this game. Cover may be another story. I expect this game to be lower scoring, and the initial move is that way. So Miss may struggle on offense, but they do bring back most of a defense, but a defense that was simply terrible last year. With that in mind, not laying the points.

Win Total Winners
By Kyle Hunter
VegasInsider.com

We’ve waited almost eight months for college football action, and it’s finally here. The hard hitting action that all of us love is back! Bettors should always look for ways to beat the books in any way possible, and I believe season win totals provide a great opportunity. Let’s take a closer look at three season Win Total bets that I believe provide a ton of value.

Virginia Tech Hokies - Over 8.5

Frank Beamer’s team won at least 10 games in every season between 2004 and 2011, but last year’s team won only seven games. Some may think this is the beginning of a trend, but I’m not buying that. Beamer’s success at Virginia Tech for so many years was no accident, and he knows how to win football games.

Virginia Tech is known for taking care of the football, but last year they had a minus-five turnover margin. That isn’t going to happen again. The Hokies play in the ACC, and while there are a couple very good teams in this conference, it isn’t going to be confused with the SEC anytime soon.

Defensively, the Hokies were a little subpar last year, but they return nine starters in 2013. I expect this defense to finish the season ranked in the top ten nationally in total defense. The defensive line is one of the best in the country, and Antoine Exum is one of the nation’s premier cover corners. Logan Thomas should be more consistent in his senior season at the quarterback spot.

Looking at the Virginia Tech schedule, I see only three games that they have legitimate shot of losing. Those games are against Alabama in the opener, at Georgia Tech, and at Miami. Even if they lose all three of those games, they’ll be at nine wins which is a winning ‘over’ ticket.

Rice Owls - Over 7.5

Rice is a program that is on the rise. The Owls won their last five games in 2012, which gives them a ton of momentum heading into the 2013 season. David Bailiff has recruited very well over the past few years, and Rice’s improved depth on both sides of the ball is really starting to show up. The Owls return 54 lettermen from a year ago, and they will be the most experienced team in Conference USA this season.

Rice allowed 30 points per game on defense last year, which certainly isn’t good, but it was much better than they were in 2011. Look for the Owls defense to be one of the most improved units in the nation this year. Rice returns 10 starters on this side of the ball, and they have a couple big stars in Phillip Gaines and Cameron Nwosu. Offensively, Taylor McHargue and Charles Ross are great play makers at the quarterback and running back positions.

Rice isn’t going to beat Texas A&M in the season opener, but there isn’t another team on the schedule that they won’t have a solid chance against. The game at Tulsa will a tough one, and I’ll assume they lose that game.

Still, I look for Rice to be favored in at least nine games this year. I believe a 9-3 or 10-2 ledger is very possible and definitely puts us in the win category.

Pittsburgh Panthers - Under 6

Pittsburgh got to only six wins a year ago, and that was playing in the Big East Conference. While the ACC certainly isn’t a great conference, it is a huge step up from the Big East they played in during 2012. To make matters worse for Pittsburgh, it is clear this team doesn’t have as much talent as last year’s team.

Paul Chryst likes to run the football, but the Panthers have no star power or depth at the running back spot. Both Ray Graham and Rushel Shell are gone, and the Panthers are really going to miss those guys. Tino Sunseri wasn’t that great of a quarterback, but he had a very good season last year, and I expect a drop in production from the quarterback position this year as well. The defense is mediocre, and they’ll give up a lot of points when they play a top offense.

There’s a very good chance Pittsburgh won’t be favored in more than three games this year. The Panthers should be exposed in their Labor Day clash at home against Florida State and non-conference matchups against Old Dominion, Navy and Notre Dame won’t help the program pad their record either.

Look for the Panthers to take a major step back this season and finish worse than 6-6.

SEC Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The opening weekend of action in the Southeastern Conference figures to be a good one. Sure, there are a couple of dogs on the schedule, but if Thursday's Mississippi-Vanderbilt game is any indication, the SEC will be better than ever in 2013. It all culminates with two huge primetime matchups, as Georgia heads to Death Valley to meet Clemson, and Louisiana State and Texas Christian meet at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

Toledo at Florida

Toledo comes into this game as a rather hefty underdog, but don't sleep on the Rockets. QB Terrance Owens, RB Andre Fluellen and WR Bernard Reedy are bright stars who could start with plenty of big-time college programs. The problem will be on defense, where Toledo has just four starters back. Florida opens the season ranked No. 10, and, as usual, expectations are high in Gainesville. Winning straight up is one thing, but covering big numbers is another. The Gators are just 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four home contests.

Rice at Texas A&M

The Aggies of Texas A&M received good news this week when it was learned the NCAA could not prove QB Johnny Manziel accepted money for signing autographs. As a result, the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner will be suspended for only one half of Saturday's opener. The Aggies have not lost a non-conference home game to an in-state opponent since 1954, and they have beaten Rice 15 consecutive times. However, this is the first meeting since 1995. Still, it will seem like old times, regardless who is under center for the Aggies.

Mississippi State at Oklahoma State

The Aggies of Texas A&M received good news this week when it was learned the NCAA could not prove QB Johnny Manziel accepted money for signing autographs. As a result, the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner will be suspended for only one half of Saturday's opener. The Aggies have not lost a non-conference home game to an in-state opponent since 1954, and they have beaten Rice 15 consecutive times. However, this is the first meeting since 1995. Still, it will seem like old times, regardless who is under center for the Aggies.

Alabama vs. Virginia Tech

The defending national champs open up their title defense in familiar territory, under the roof of the Georgia Dome in downtown Atlanta. Neutral site games have been a friend to Bama lately, as they are 7-1 ATS in their past eight neutral site tilts. If the trends are any indication, this one could get ugly. Virginia Tech is just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five neutral site battles, and they're 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 non-conference games. The Crimson Tide will rely upon a two-headed backfield of T.J. Yeldon and true freshman Derrick Henry. For the Hokies, QB Logan Thomas is a star in the making. However, the running game might be hurt if starting RB J.C. Coleman (ankle) is not ready. Alabama has won 11 of the previous 12 meetings in this series.

Georgia at Clemson

The house will be shaking in the upstate, as Georgia invades Death Valley to tangle with Clemson in a battle of Top 10 teams. The Bulldogs have plenty of big-time aspirations, and they'll go as far as QB Aaron Murray will take them. The same holds true on the other side of the field, as Clemson's hopes hinge on the right arm and legs of QB Tajh Boyd. This is the first meeting in 10 years between the relative neighbors, and UGA leads the all-time series 41-17-4. The difference in this one could be in the secondary for Georgia. They have just one starter, CB Damian Swann, returning. Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins will look to exploit that inexperience.

LSU vs. TCU

Any other time, this would be the marquee game of the week, but it is certainly overshadowed by Georgia-Clemson. It will be interesting to see how the Tigers fare after having to replace a school-record eight drafted defensive players. TCU faces questions of their own, including under center, as head coach Gary Patterson has still not tabbed Trevone Boykin or Casey Pachall as his starting QB. The key matchup in this game will be LSU's experienced offense, which looks to be improved under new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, against the shutdown defense of TCU. LSU was ranked 11th out of 14 teams in passing in the SEC, tossing just 12 TD passes in 13 games. That needs to be much better if they're to be taken seriously.

Other Games

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas (4:00 p.m. ET)
Austin Peay at Tennessee (6:00 p.m. ET)
Washington State at Auburn (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Kentucky at Western Kentucky (7:00 p.m. ET)
Murray State at Missouri (7:00p.m. ET)

ACC Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The Atlantic Coast Conference kicked off the season with a pair of games Thursday. North Carolina took it on the chops, losing to South Carolina 27-10 in their first test of the 2013 season. Meanwhile, Wake Forest turned aside Presbyterian by a 31-7 score, but the Demon Deacons still have much work to do. There are all kinds of outstanding matchups in the first weekend of ACC play, including the big one in Death Valley between Clemson and Georgia. Don't sleep on the Louisiana Tech-NC State game, either. That could be a very interesting matchup.

Florida Atlantic at Miami, Fl.

The Hurricanes enter the season as the favorites in the ACC's Coastal Division, but there are plenty of questions to be answered before they get into the meat of their schedule. It all starts and stops with QB Stephen Morris and RB Duke Johnson, who might be one of the top tailbacks in the nation. The young Owls will look to keep the Canes off balance with a multi-pronged QB attack, as head coach Bo Pelini gets his inexperienced Owls some much-needed experience. FAU is 1-25 all-time against teams from BCS conferences, and that doesn't figure to improve Friday.

Louisiana Tech at North Carolina State

This is the undercard game in the ACC, and one of the most underrated of the weekend. The Bulldogs invade Carter-Finley Stadium as two-touchdown underdogs, but it would be ise for the Wolfpack not to underestimate their first opponent. La. Tech posted nine victories last season. The Dave Doeren era begins in Raleigh, and there are questions as to who will replace the departed QB Mike Glennon. It appears Brandon Mitchell is the favorite, but don't count out Pete Thomas either. Louisiana Tech is 0-5 ATS in their past five non-conference games, while NC State is 1-3-1 ATS in their past five out of conference.

Syracuse vs. Penn State

It's going to take some getting used to when referring to the Orange as an ACC team. Heck, I am old school, and it is still weird calling Penn State a Big Ten team. The Orange hit the reset button in more ways than one, as they had to replace head coach Doug Marrone and QB Ryan Nassib, both of whom left for the NFL. Scott Shafer takes over for 'Cuse, and he has not yet handed the keys over to one quarterback in particular. QBs Drew Allen and Terrel Hunt are in the mix for snaps. Penn State was expected to struggle last season after the NCAA's penalty for the Jerry Sandusky situation, but they were an impressive 8-4. Penn State is 9-1-1 ATS in their past 11 games, but they are 5-12 in their past 17 non-conference tilts. The 'over' might be the play here, as there over was 4-0 in Syracuse's final four games, and the over cashed in seven of Penn State's final eight in 2012.

Brigham Young at Virginia

Vegas has set the line for this game as a pick 'em, and not many bettors are giving the homestanding Cavaliers a lot of credit. It's a nearly 2-to-1 edge for the road team in the eyes of Joe Q. Public. Maybe bettors are being swayed by the fact UVA was atrocious last season, and they are 0-7-1 ATS in their past eight non-conference games. The Cavaliers are also 0-7-1 ATS in their past eight home games, while BYU is 14-6 ATS in their past 20, and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their past seven games played in the month of August.

Alabama vs. Virginia Tech

The defending national champs open up their title defense in familiar territory, under the roof of the Georgia Dome in downtown Atlanta. Neutral site games have been a friend to Bama lately, as they are 7-1 ATS in their past eight neutral site tilts. If the trends are any indication, this one could get ugly. Virginia Tech is just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five neutral site battles, and they're 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 non-conference games. The Crimson Tide will rely upon a two-headed backfield of T.J. Yeldon and true freshman Derrick Henry. For the Hokies, QB Logan Thomas is a star in the making. However, the running game might be hurt if starting RB J.C. Coleman (ankle) is not ready. Alabama has won 11 of the previous 12 meetings in this series.

Georgia at Clemson

The house will be shaking in the upstate, as Georgia invades Death Valley to tangle with Clemson in a battle of Top 10 teams. The Bulldogs have plenty of big-time aspirations, and they'll go as far as QB Aaron Murray will take them. The same holds true on the other side of the field, as Clemson's hopes hinge on the right arm and legs of QB Tajh Boyd. This is the first meeting in 10 years between the relative neighbors, and UGA leads the all-time series 41-17-4. The difference in this one could be in the secondary for Georgia. They have just one starter, CB Damian Swann, returning. Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins will look to exploit that inexperience.

Other Games

Elon at Georgia Tech (12:00 p.m. ET )
Villanova at Boston College (12:00 p.m. ET)
Florida Int'l at Maryland (ESPNU, 12:30 p.m. ET)
North Carolina Central at Duke (4:00 p.m. ET)
Florida State at Pittsburgh (*Monday - ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)