Brad Powers
Missouri at West Virginia
Play: Missouri +11.5
The opening week of college football is now less than two months away and while there has been some major line movements in several games (including the Georgia St/Ball State line moving 8.5 points!), there are a few teams out there still offering up some value including a Missouri team poised for a bounce back season.
While the Tigers will have a new head coach roaming the sidelines for the first time in 15 years (Gary Pinkel retired at the end of last season), Barry Odom is very familiar with the school having been a LB here in the mid-90's while also serving as the DC here last year. His defense a year ago, was the lone bright spot on a team that had a disappointing 5-7 season.
This year's defense could be even better thanks to the return of 8 starters including 5 of their top 6 tacklers. Their defensive line is one of the top 5 DL units in all of college football thanks to the return of all 4 starters plus the addition of 2014 star Harold Brantley who missed all of last year with injury. That defensive front was one of the big reasons why Missouri was No. 2 in the FBS last year in TFL per game.
The problem with last year's team was an offense that ranked second to last averaging just 13.6 ppg and were also just No. 124 in total offense (averaging just 281 ypg). This year's offensive unit is much improved starting with QB Drew Lock who is now in his sophomore season. Lock is 6-4 and 221 lbs and has an NFL future. He will be surrounded by a pair of very talented graduate transfers in RB Alex Ross from Oklahoma and WR Chris Black from Alabama. These key transfers are getting little notice from the early markets and one of the reasons why Missouri is currently flying under the radar.
On the other side, West Virginia looks better on offense this season, but do lose 9 of their top 13 tacklers on defense including four NFL draft picks (a significant loss for a program like WV). This defense could be susceptible to giving up a lot of points early in the season while the new starters adjust which leaves the back-door wide open for a much improved Missouri offense.
The technicals are also in favor of the Tigers here as they are a respectable 28-16 ATS (64%) the last 10 years in non-conference action while also sporting a solid 12-5 ATS mark (71%) as an away underdog. Meanwhile, West Virginia has struggled as a home favorite under head coach Dana Holgorsen going just 9-15 ATS (37.5%).
Finally, the early Noon start could see both teams slow out of the gates (favors the big dog) and my current power ratings have this line at West Virginia -8, a significant difference from the current -11.5 line which is above a couple of key numbers (10 and 11). I'd suggest a 1-unit (1-star) play on Missouri +11.5 for week 1.
Sleepyj
Western Michigan +6.5
A few select 7's available at a few shops with this one. I'll grab the +6.5 here though with confidence. When I look at both teams a few glaring things stick out... Northwestern opens up at home. That's always a tough pill to swallow for any team starting out on the road week 1. I feel we have some advantages though with the Broncos...Brocos bring back 4 year starter Zach Terrell...He was one of the best QB's in the MAC last year. I can only see improvement for him under coach PJ. Fleck....Terrell Threw for 3,522 Yds and 26 TD's last year...Only threw 9 Int's and he might just surpass those numbers this year..He gets his big target and sure fire NFL prospect in WR Corey Davis....Davis was a key cog in the Broncos offense last year...Broncos also get back 1,000 yd rusher Jamauri Bogan and RB Jarvion Franklin..Also a So. RB in LaVente Bellamy....The rushing attack will be just fine and they will be more experienced for sure...The O-Line should be fine as well...The Broncos starting offense will bring back 9 starters from last year..The key loss IMO is WR Braverman..He was the spark plug for this team and he will be missed..Frim what I have read the Broncos are high on a few of the younger guys though..WR Micheal Henry and Carrington Thompson are being asked to step up now with Braverman's departure to the NFL...This offense will be just fine and I expect them right at the top in the MAC...Taking on the Wildcats will be a challenge for sure..My concern for the Wildcats is on both sides of the ball...Losing defensive studs in Lowry and VanHoose won't help at all...The Wildcat defense brings back a total of 5 starters from that defense last year...That defense was very good as they only allowed 18ppg...I see a regression here trying to plug up holes that had been occupied by NFL caliber players in some spots...The Wildcat offense should be improved however...How good will they be rides on the progress QB Clayton Thorson has made...I don't see much from him from a talent stand point is concerned...Again the Wildcats running game will dictate the flow of every game..A slow grinding offense limited with play makers...RB Justin Jackson is very good and might even pick up a few awards..I'm rather certain he rushes for well over a 1,000 yards this year. Perhaps he even makes a Heisman watch with how much work he will this year...The WR core is average at best and Thornson will need to make them better..I just don;t see this Wildcat offense getting over the 20ppg mark..This team IMO regresses and it will be severe. Last year they won 10 games and I would assume coming from the Big 10 they are over-valued to start the year against a lesser MAC team..I just don;t see the big difference here making them a 6.5 to 7 pt favorite....Broncos defense should be well and good here to defend the Wildcats IMO...Broncos will return 6 players on defense and some of them are very good. limiting the Wildcats here doesn't seem like a stretch...WMU was very good last playing in tight games..Most of the games they played they kept close with the offense..I expect that again for this game..Crowd will be intense here, but overall I think PJ Fleck and this team is primed for an opening day upset. Broncos offense will be tough to stop with a depleted Wildcats defense...Broncos hang around all game and cover the spread..One thing I love about WMU and Fleck is how they play as a team...Row The Boat !!
Spartan
Missouri at West Virginia
Play: Missouri +11
First game under new head coach Barry Odom. But it is also important to note he is no new comer to the school or the team. Odom is well known and regarded as a coach and man by anyone who has come into contact with him. He is imposing a no nonsense approach as evidenced by his willingness to let some talented kids take a walk for academic and disciplinary reasons. Without an AD in place the window was wide open for Odom to go rogue but he did not do it. The guy is a coach with true integrity. He will have his defense ready to rumble. And it is a unit too good to be passing up on double digits here against West Virginia. Drew Lock has a painful but very valuable year of experience under center in the rear view mirror and should show vast improvement. While no machine by any stretch the offense will be better than last year when it basically just grounded to a standstill. Last year was the worst offense in many years for the Tigers. Visions of that inept performance is still fresh in many folks minds, including the odds makers. From what I have personally observed at workouts this unit will me substantially stronger. Once again, it is the first game and I am not willing to go stronger here than a free release. I am not endorsing Missouri as any kind of big wager guys. I feel I am as close to this program as any service around and I am just not seeing a stronger play here in the opener. Particularly going on the road.
Free Picks and Service Plays for Saturday, September 3rd, 2016. These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
River City Sharps
Miami Ohio at Iowa
Play: Iowa -28
The Iowa Hawkeyes enjoyed a magical season last year, culminating in a trip to the Big 10 championship game and trip to the Rose Bowl. While their trip to Pasadena ended in a lopsided loss to Stanford, there was plenty for HC Kirk Ferentz and is Hawkeyes to celebrate. Iowa finished the season with a 12-2 mark, including a perfect 8-0 mark through their regular season Big 10 slate. The QB spot is always important, especially early in the season, and the Hawkeyes will once again look to SR CJ Beathard and WR Matt VandeBerg to generate plenty more offense for Iowa, who averaged 30.9 PPG last year. The Miami Redhawks were just 3-9 last year and a very popular “play against” for these Sharps. They do return 16 starters from last year (we’re not sure that’s a good or bad thing!) including QB Billy Bahl. We do think this year’s Miami squad will be improved over last year, but this appears to be a tough spot for the Redhawks. Miami is just 1-12 in their last 13 road openers and in the last eight of those losses, the margin of defeat has been 32 PPG. Iowa has been really good under Ferentz in the spot of a large home favorite, sporting a 13-4 ATS mark in their last 17 games when favored between 21-31 points. While we do believe Miami’s offense will be improved, let’s keep in mind that they ranked 109th in FBS offense last year and this Iowa defense is a stout bunch that will be fired up for their home opener. This one is all Hawkeyes.
DAVE COKIN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT KENTUCKY
PLAY: SOUTHERN MISS +7
I’m usually a little hesitant to back new head coaches out of the gate, but I think there’s enough in play here to support a play on Southern Mississippi. Jay Hopson has done well at the FCS level, and he was formerly an assistant here at Southern Miss. I also like the fact that the new OC is Shannon Dawson, who had that job at Kentucky last season. He got fired, so there’s two ways to read the situation. One is that he wasn’t any good, the other is that he didn’t have the personnel. But one thing for sure is that you know Dawson is going to be all-in to do some damage to the program that dumped him. That’s a nice intangible. USM has the best QB in CUSA in Nick Mullens, and while the offense did lose a few important pieces, I expect the Golden Eagles to still be very productive on offense. We’ll see on the defense. I don’t think it’s necessarily down from last year, but it probably isn’t any better either.
Kentucky is already having some problems.The Wildcats are already down two projected defensive starters. For a team that lost seven of its eight leading tacklers from 2015, this is a potentially big hit. I think the Wildcats could have an improved offense. Eddie Gran is the new OC and he did some great work at Cincinnati. Drew Barker was unimpressive in two starts last season, but he was a pretty highly recruited QB and I suspect he’ll do a better job this season. The strength of the Kentucky team will be its running game, especially with what is a very experienced OL to open holes.
This game looks like a tossup to me. I have these two teams very close in all three sets of power ratings I utilize. It’s an important game for both teams. Southern Miss is an upwardly mobile program that would love to knock off an SEC opponent on the road. Kentucky hasn’t been to even a minor bowl since 2010, and if Mark Stoops wants to stay off the hot seat, he needs an invite this season. That makes this almost a must win Week One game for the Wildcats. But I don’t see them being a full TD better than the Golden Eagles, and with the early attrition on defense, I see the visitors having a legit shot here. I’ll take the touchdown with Southern Mississippi.
Scott Spreitzer
Southern Miss at Kentucky
Play: Southern Miss +7
The Wildcats scored less than 28 points in nine of 12 games last season, topping that number only against Charlotte, Eastern Kentucky, and UL-Lafayette. Plenty of familiar faces return to the Kentucky offense in 2016 and Drew Barker will be behind center. The book is still out on the sophomore and the last time we saw Barker, he was completing just 6 of 22 passes in a loss to Louisville to close the season. The defense allowed at least 27 points on seven occasions and will have to replace seven key tacklers. Southern Miss is flying under the public radar in a dead-heat with Western Kentucky to win the C-USA according to our power ratings. New HC Jay Hopson takes over for Todd Monken who left for the NFL, but QB Nick Mullens is back and leads the best offensive backfield in the conference. Hopson will focus on the defense, which does lose three top players. The advantage: So Miss averaged nearly 7 yards per play and almost 40 ppg last season. Even with a few new faces, including a pair of new starters at OT, we believe the offense will be too strong for a vulnerable Kentucky defense.
Oskeim Sports
Clemson at Auburn
Play: Auburn +7
After reaching the National Title game in 2013, Auburn has gone a disappointing 15-11 overall (7-6 last season; 2-6 in conference). Based on those pedestrian results, the Tigers are flying under-the-radar in 2016 and could be one of the most underrated teams in college football.
Head coach Gus Malzahn's offense excels with a mobile quarterback, and the Tigers finally have that in JUCO transfer John Franklin III. The East Mississippi Community College transfer (and one-time Florida State backup) has made dramatic strides according to Malzahn and offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee. "Every practice, you see him improving," Malzahn said.
Third-year sophomore Sean White and senior Jeremy Johnson are also battling Franklin III for the starting job in what coach Malzahn calls a "really good battle" between "three guys battling their guts out." While the defense only returns six starters, the hiring of new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele brings legitimacy to Auburn's stop unit. A healthy Carl Lawson headlines what will be a much-improved Auburn defense in 2016.
The Tigers are 56-19 SU in their last 75 games at Jordan-Hare Stadium, including going 9-6 ATS as home underdogs over the last ten years. With the nation's best special team's unit coached by Scott Fountain (enters his 8th season at Auburn) and led by place kicker Daniel Carlson (school-record 14 straight field goals; 49 touchbacks on 69 kickoffs), the Tigers are capable of pulling the upset.
Jesse Schule
Hawaii vs. Michigan
Play: Hawaii +41½
The public loves Michigan this year, and it's easy to see why. The Wolverines completely turned things around winning 10 games last season, after going just 5-7 in 2014. While Jim Harbaugh's first year as Michigan's head coach has come with plenty of fan fair, I believe this team is way overrated. It's important to keep in mind that all 10 of last year's wins came against teams that finished the season unranked. They lost at Utah, at home to Michigan State, and they were blown out at Ohio State.
The Wolverines will host the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in their season opener, and they are asked to cover an enormous number here. Despite the fact that they played their fair share of cupcakes last season, they didn't win any games by as much as 40 points. Hawaii was brutal last year, losing 10 of 13 games. Many of those losses were blowouts, but even against the likes of Ohio State and Wisconsin, the margin of defeat was less than 40 points.
They lost 38-0 at Ohio State in Week 2, and it's worth noting that Michigan didn't fair much better losing 42-13 when they traveled to Columbus. Hawaii has plenty of talent returning from last season, and this team might just be more competitive than it was a year ago.
The Warriors will get a chance to work out the kinks a week earlier when they play California in Australia. The Wolverines will not have that luxury, with a new quarterback under center in their first game of the season. Even if everything goes smoothly for Michigan, and they somehow manage to build a big early lead, expect Harbaugh to pull the starters which would likely allow Hawaii to get a back door cover.
Dennis Macklin
Hawaii vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -41
This is a big number but this is an untenable spot for the visitors who flew back and forth to Australia and played a game and then flies back to the mainland to be the sacrificial lamb in the Big House. Hawaii doesn't get double-digits against this defense so this number is very doable.
Sean Higgs
LSU vs. Wisconsin
Play: LSU -10
Look. If these guys beat 'Bama at home, they are in the playoffs. They are that good. But it is tough to go against the defending champs. That being sad, Wisconsin is not even close to be as deep or talented as the top 2 SEC clubs. Not a knock. Just the truth. They will bring a tough OL and rushing attack. But I think that the Bayou Bengals rate the clear edge here. Their new DC just left the Badgers! Forget the fact that he boasted a Top 10 defense the last 3 years. I am pretty sure he knows the offensive side of the ball pretty good from facing it in practice daily. Don't be scared of the double digit line here. LSU wins this one going away.
Jeff Allen
Texas State vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -21
Ohio is loaded for Frank Solich who is now the the most successful active coach in the MAC. The Bobcats have not had a losing season since 2006 and are loaded this year and will compete for the conference championship. Texas State is off a disappointing year that forced Coach Fran into retirement and return just 10 starters. This figures to be a slow rebuild for the Bobcats and the schedule maker didn't do them any favors opening them vs. ground and pound Ohio on the road. Lay the points with a home team that generally takes care of business when it's supposed to.
Rob Veno
Georgia Tech vs. Boston College
Recommendation: Over 44
ACC opener for each of these teams right off the bat and only thing that could make the stakes higher is if it were a divisional game. The offseason brought change at each of the coordinator posts for Boston College and a renewed sense of urgency and determination for Georgia Tech. It is practically impossible to project and plus or minus for either team due to the international travel situation but the Yellow Jackets have indicated that they view this as the bowl game they did not play in last season. It’s doubtful though after reading player quotes that they’ll get so caught up in the trip that they’ll lose focus.
Boston College does get a huge advantage here by being able to prepare for the Georgia Tech option attack for the last six months. The Eagles did lose defensive coordinator Don Brown (Michigan DC) who last season directed them to national rankings of first in total Defense, second in rush defense, and fourth in scoring defense. The switch to Jim Reid (Iowa LB coach) doesn’t disrupt anything schematically since Reid’s philosophy is very similar to that of Brown’s. There are always some subtle differences between coaching styles and the Eagles are in a familiarity stage but it doesn’t appear there will be a major drop off in defensive production especially with seven starters and 23 lettermen back. On offense, Boston College is going through a significant system change under new OC Scott Loeffler but there’s strong continuity between Loeffler and head coach Steve Addazio. In 2009-10 Loeffler and Addazio were part of the Florida staff and then Addazio took Loeffler with him to Temple to serve as OC for the 2011 season. Toward the end of fall practice, BC was working exclusively out of the shotgun formation as they look to improve their passing game.
There is no such change going on for the Yellow Jackets as the coaching staff and system remains the same. What is different for Tech is its health and attitude. After suffering through an injury plagued and youth filled 2015 campaign, GT returns a batch of key personnel and the team’s fire has been lit by last year’s 3-9 straight up record. Offensively, this team is better at all of the position groups with senior dual threat QB Justin Thomas being the explosive trigger. The young running backs are talented and more experienced after being thrown into the fire last season and the OL is healthy with a Remington Award Watch list candidate Freddie Burden at center. The defense was mediocre last year and losing their best DL Adam Goetsis to the NFL (2nd round, Denver) and three-fourths of their starting secondary breeds some concerns.
While BC figures to be an elite defensive team once again, there’s plenty going on offensively with Addazio’s “multiple spread” attack taking on new terminology, formations and concepts. Also throw in a new QB as Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles takes over and the fact that the TE position figures to now have a prominent role. It’s all new, and there's nothing that Georgia Tech can take off of film from any season during Addazio’s tenure. Georgia Tech is the steadier and more predictable commodity at this point which is why they’re favored -3 and my power ratings agree. The true advantages here lie in the offenses where the Yellow Jackets' option and the Boston College upgrades have potential to be productive. With the total now pushing all the way down to 43.5 in multiple venues, the over is worth a look.
Dave Cokin
BYU vs. Arizona
Play: BYU +1.5
Kind of an unusual setup at several levels on this opener between BYU and Arizona. First off, it’s not a home game for Arizona. The game is at Glendale, and while it’s been lined as a home/neutral for the Wildcats, I’m not sure that’s justified. BYU always travels well, and from what I’m gathering, Cougar Nation has already arrived and they’re going to be out in force for this game.
As for what else is unusual, BYU didn’t name its starting QB till this past week, and Rich Rodriguez is still not saying who will be under center for Arizona. My guess is that Anu Solomon starts as he’s the veteran, but that’s sure not a certainty. Taysom Hill will be the QB1 for BYU, and we’ll see if he’s lost anything due to all the injuries he’s incurred. My info is that he has looked sharp and flat out won the competition.
One big issue on the Arizona side for me is the lack of size on the defensive front. Three of the six guys who figure to see the most action are under 250 pounds. That’s almost unheard of these days, particularly at a major conference school. BYU has a big and experienced OL and I really feel as though there’s a chance for the Cougars to wear down the ‘Cats if they commit to the run on a consistent basis.
The big worry is that it’s a debuting coach in Kalani Sitake who’s replacing a fixture in Bronco Mendenhall. But my concern is probably less than it might normally be as I am not a RichRod believer. So I’m going to bank on my pre-season projections, and those all show the Cougars as the better team. Not by a lot, mind you, but I’ve got BYU by a small margin on a neutral field across the board, I do make this a neutral site so no home field incorporated for ‘Zona, and I’m getting a little bit from the oddsmakers.This figures to be an exciting game that could be high scoring, but the bet for me is BYU plus the small available points.
Alex Smith
Bowling Green at Ohio St
Play: Ohio St -28
The season kicks off in Columbus on Saturday morning as Ohio State hosts fellow in-state foe Bowling Green. The Buckeyes are looking to return back to the College Football Playoff after falling a field goal short of an undefeated regular season thanks to Michigan State. Urban Meyer's recruiting prowess is the key factor as to why many believe OSU is still one of the top contenders this season. The Buckeyes return only six starters on both sides of the ball but with tons of talented five-star freshman and many sophomores and juniors who know the systems well, this team should be able to pick up right where they've left off.
Bowling Green has a ton of changes heading into the year starting with first-year head coach Mike Jinks who was a top-tier prep coach for many years in Texas. He was part of Texas Tech's staff last season under Kliff Kingsbury. His familiarity with spread offenses will fit this up-tempo ball club that scored 591 points in 2015. However, Jinks will have to get this done with a completely new offense as last year's starting quarterback and running back are gone, along with four of the team's top five leading receivers. Defensively, Bowling Green was mediocre, if not awful as times, with a porous pass defense that ranked near the bottom of the nation in yielding passing plays of 10 yards or more.
Note that the Buckeyes finished 6-7 ATS last season with three of their pointspread losses coming against non-power five foes. In those contests they were laying -33.5, -34, and -41. I think some of those ATS struggles came as a result of the quarterback controversy and a lack of cohesion on offense. With JT Barrett the clear cut starter and plenty of plug-play-and-thrive situations I project this offense to hit the ground running which makes laying the four touchdowns and worthy play.