Handicapping 2016 Win Totals

Handicapping 2016 Win Totals
By Brian Edwards

Noticeably absent from the four schools with win totals of 10 are four of the five teams with the shortest odds at the future book. Obviously, one of those programs is Alabama, which is the 7/1 ‘chalk’ to repeat as national champs at Sportsbook.ag.

Nick Saban’s program has a win total of 9.5 flat (-110 either way). Remember, the win totals pertain to regular-season games only, meaning victories in the conference championship games, the College Football Playoff and bowl games mean nothing to these ‘over/under’ numbers.

Per Athlon’s preseason magazine that hit newsstands this week, Alabama returns six starters on offense and five on defense. For the third season in a row, the Crimson Tide is in search of a new starting quarterback. Blake Sims and Jake Coker thrived in Lane Kiffin’s offense as first-year starters in 2014 and 2015, respectively, with Sims guiding Alabama to the CFP despite a loss to Ole Miss in the early going.

The Tide lost to Ole Miss again last year but found its QB in Coker as he helped spark a late rally against the Rebels that came up just short. Alabama wouldn’t lose again, beating Clemson in the CFP final to win Saban’s fourth national championship since arriving in Tuscaloosa in 2007.

Though a slew of key players have departed, it’s been crystal clear for many years now that Alabama simply reloads, rather than rebuilds, on Saban’s watch. So, why a win total one-half game less than Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma and Tennessee?

Ah, that schedule.

The Tide’s perennial Eastern Division foe is Tennessee, which had won seven games or fewer every season since 2008 until posting nine victories last year. The Volunteers led in Tuscaloosa in the final two minutes last season, only to drop a 19-14 heartbreaker. Finally, they appear poised, as evidenced by their win total, to return to the nation’s elite for the first time since Phil Fulmer had things rolling in Knoxville for the better part of a nearly two-decade stretch.

This development for UT alone makes Alabama’s schedule more challenging, especially since the Tide has to play at Neyland Stadium. Not only does Alabama open the season at Jerry World in Arlington (AKA: Bryant-Denny West) versus Southern Cal, but it also has road dates at Ole Miss, at Arkansas and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks and at LSU. The home slate should be a breeze, so bettors are basically handicapping those five aforementioned games outside of T-Town in determining a play on this team’s win total.

Ohio State, which shares the second-shortest future odds with Clemson at +750, joins Michigan (8/1) and LSU with shorter future numbers compared to the quartet of squads with win totals of 10. The Buckeyes have a win tally of 8.5 at The Nugget.

Again, according to Athlon’s, the Buckeyes returns only three starters on offense and three on defense. Clearly, that’s a lot of talent gone from a 12-1 team that took its only loss of 2015 at home to Michigan State when the Spartans were without their star QB in Connor Cook.

At least Urban Meyer won’t be dealing with a QB controversy, as J.T. Barrett is set to be the starter under center with no competition to speak of. The schedule isn’t a murderer’s row compared to many other slates from teams in the SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12, but it’s much more formidable than that made-to-order cupcake schedule Ohio State assembled last season.

Instead of playing at Virginia Tech, a program that had faded considerably in the last several years of Frank Beamer’s otherwise spectacular tenure, Ohio State must venture to Norman to face Oklahoma. Rather than missing Wisconsin altogether from the other Big Ten division, the Buckeyes have to go to Camp Randall in 2016. Also, they play at Penn State (the week after going to Madison) and at Michigan State prior to the regular-season finale vs. Michigan at The ‘Shoe.

Speaking of Jim Harbaugh’s program, it has a win total of 9.5 after going 10-3 in his initial year at his alma mater. Obviously, that record easily could’ve been 11-2 if not for the unfathomable collapse against the Spartans at The Big House. The Wolverines bring back eight starters on offense and six on defense.

Michigan plays its first five games in Ann Arbor and doesn’t go on the road until a trip to New Jersey to meet Rutgers on Oct. 1. Later in the year, Harbaugh’s bunch plays road games at Michigan State, at Iowa and at Ohio State The non-conference games are a joke, with Hawaii, Colorado and UCF coming to The Big House.

LSU might have a head coach on the hot seat, but it also has a stacked roster with enough talent to get Les Miles a new contract. The Tigers have a win tally of 9.5 that’s shaded to the ‘over’ to the tune of a -140 price.

With Kevin Steele taking over as defensive coordinator for John Chavis last year, this unit went south. In fact, LSU ranked 41st in the country in scoring defense. Miles upgraded at the DC spot, however, by hiring Dave Aranda away from Wisconsin.

LSU returns eight starters on offense and 10 on defense. For the first time in many years, the roster hasn’t been gutted by early exits for the NFL Draft. Leonard Fournette, who was the Heisman favorite until Derrick Henry took over that role when Alabama thumped the previously-unbeaten Tigers last season, couldn’t leave early so he’s back as a major Heisman candidate again.

As always, though, the major question is at the QB position. Is true junior Brandon Harris ready for a breakout campaign? He certainly doesn’t have any excuses not to, as speedster WRs Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre are back in the mix.

The season begins at sacred Lambeau Field, where LSU will take on Wisconsin in a rematch of a season opener two years ago in Arlington where the Tigers rallied in the second half for a comeback victory. Four SEC road games will be played at Auburn, at Florida, at Arkansas and Texas A&M. Ole Miss and Alabama must come to Death Valley.

Let’s go back to the teams with 10-win totals starting with Clemson, last year’s runner-up to Alabama. The Tigers saw three stars on defense bolt early for the NFL Draft, leaving DC Brent Venables with only four returning starters. However, the 2014 defense was ranked No. 1 in the country and brought back only two starters last season. Nevertheless, the 2015 ‘D’ ranked 10th in the nation.

The offense returns eight starters, but I think of it as nine since WR Mike Williams is back after a neck injury in Week 1 sidelined him for the rest of last season. Along with Fournette, QB Deshaun Watson is one of the first names you’ll hear as a candidate to win the Heisman. Watson is surrounded by talented weapons like WR Artavis Scott, Williams, workhorse RB Wayne Gallman, senior TE Jordan Leggett and a trio of sophomore wideouts that made impacts last year.

There are four road games that could cause problems, including the season opener at Auburn. The Tigers play two of these contests on short weeks, which are always advantageous to the home teams that don’t have to travel with limited time to prepare. Those games are at Georgia Tech on a Thursday and at Boston College on a Friday.

The Eagles will have an elite defense and they’re hoping that Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles can solve their QB issues that were out of hand last season. Also, Clemson has to go to Tallahassee to face the Seminoles, who will have the revenge angle working when they collide on Oct. 29.

After going 10-3 and losing to Houston at the Peach Bowl, Florida State returns nine starters on offense and six on defense. Jimbo Fisher’s team has one of the nation’s premier RBs in Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2015.

The Seminoles, who have 14/1 future odds, saw major slippage at the QB position last season. Will senior Sean Maguire win the job, or will up-and-coming freshmen Deondre Francois (redshirt) or Malik Henry (true) stake claim to the position for the present and future?

Fisher’s team opens up in Orlando against Ole Miss. After a layup home game against Charleston Southern, the ‘Noles enter a tough four-game stretch (at Louisville, at South Fla., vs. North Carolina and at Miami). From there, the rest of the schedule should be easy with the exception of home games vs. Clemson and Florida.

Oklahoma shares a 10-win total and 14/1 future odds with FSU. The Sooners, who went 11-2 and made the CFP before losing to Clemson in the semifinals, bring back 12 total starters (six on each side of the ball). They have All-American candidates in QB Baker Mayfield and RB Samaje Perine.

Mayfield thrived in new OC Lincoln Riley’s offense, throwing for 3,700 yards and 36 TDs. OU caught a break when South Carolina decided against hiring such a young coach after Riley’s interview impressed the school. The former architect of East Carolina’s Air-Raid attack won’t be long for a coordinator’s role.

OU has a pair of daunting non-conference matchups, including the opener against Houston and a Week 3 home game versus Ohio State The Sooners have road trips at TCU, at Texas Tech and at West Virginia, in addition to challenging home games vs. Baylor and Oklahoma State.

Tennessee (15/1) was close to a monster season last year, but it gave up double-digit leads in losses vs. Oklahoma, at Florida and vs. Arkansas. Butch Jones made shaky decision in the defeats to the Sooners and Gators. He’s clearly done a stellar job of recruiting and has the program set up for a potential breakout campaign, but the lingering question in Knoxville remains Jones’s in-game coaching acumen.

UT returns 18 total starters, including nine on each side of the ball. QB Josh Dobbs, RB Jalen Hurd, DE Derek Barnett, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, CB Cam Sutton and return specialist Evan Berry are elite talents who have proven to be game-changing players.

Instead of playing Oklahoma like it did the last two seasons, the Vols will square off against Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway in Week 2. That’s a plus. As always, the toughest part of UT’s slate in the annual late-September showdown with Florida and the entire month of October.

Can Tennessee finally beat Florida? The Vols have lost 11 in a row to the Gators, who have pulled out improbable comeback wins in back-to-back seasons. After hosting UF at Neyland Stadium (AKA: Swamp North), they play at Georgia, at Texas A&M and vs. Alabama. Unless you feel like UT could have problems in obvious ‘chalk’ spots vs. Virginia Tech, at South Carolina, vs. Missouri or at Vanderbilt, the handicap of this win total is all about the four-game stretch against the Gators, Bulldogs, Aggies and Crimson Tide.

Let’s examine one last team that could be an interesting candidate for the CFP. We saw the AAC have a strong 2015 year with Memphis, Temple and Houston and Navy spending much of the year ranked in the Top 25.

The Cougars finished 13-1 with its only defeat coming in a stunning 20-17 loss at UConn when several key players were injured. They return head coach Tom Herman, who is a rising star who passed on the South Carolina job. Perhaps most important, star QB Greg Ward Jr. is back along with five other offensive starters. Five starters are back on defense.

Memphis lost its head coach and star QB, Temple lost a ton of talent off of its stellar defense and Navy only brings back one starter on offense. Therefore, the strength of schedule within league play won’t be as strong for the Cougars. With that said, South Florida appears set for a big year and could make a monster splash in September if it upsets FSU in Tampa.

But if Houston can just take care of its business, it will likely be in the hunt for a spot in the CFP. That’s because the Cougars take on Oklahoma in Week 1 and get Louisville (which has a win total of nine and will probably be ranked) at home on a short week in late November. If they stay unbeaten, they’d have wins over OU, Louisville, at Cincinnati, at Navy, at Memphis and a likely AAC Championship Game win over South Florida.

In that scenario, Houston would get in ahead of a one-loss Oklahoma and any other one-loss Big 12 team if that defeat came against the Sooners. Right? The Cougars’ win total is nine (with the ‘over’ offering a +130 return) and their future odds are 80/1.