NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, January 21st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Portland lost its last four games, losing brutal 93-92 game in Philly last night; Blazers are 5-12 as a road underdog. Four of their last six games stayed under total. Celtics won seven of last nine games, are 10-7 as a home favorite. Over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games. Trailblazers won five of last seven games with Boston, winning two of last three visits here. Three of last four series games stayed under.
Wizards won four games in row and 10 of last 13; they’re 6-5 as road underdogs. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Pistons won last two games after a 4-11 skid; they’re 1-6 in last seven games as a home favorite- over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Washington won five of its last six games with Detroit, losing two of last three visits to Motor City. in series where home side won seven of last eight series games. Four of last six series games stayed under total.
Brooklyn snapped 11-game skid last night in New Orleans; they’re 5-8-1 in last 14 games as a road underdog, 2-2-1 if they played night before. Charlotte won eight of last nine home games, covering last three. Last four Hornet games stayed under the total. Hornets won five of last six games with Brooklyn; over is 4-1 in last five series games played here. Nets split last four visits here, but covered all four games.
Embiid (rest) will not play for 76ers tonite. Sixers won eight of last ten games, are 8-3 in last 11 games as a road underdog. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Hawks won 10 of last 12 games, are 3-1 in last four games as a home favorite. Three of last four Atlanta games went over. Philly lost nine of last ten games with Atlanta (2-7 vs spread in last nine); they lost last five visits here (2-3 vs spread). Four of last five series games went over total.
Milwaukee lost its last four games (0-4 vs spread), is 5-10 as a road underdog, 1-5 if they played night before. Over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Heat won last two games, are 4-4 as a home favorite. Four of last five Miami games went over the total. Bucks won seven of last nine games with Miami, winning three of last four visits here. Three of last four series games went over total.
Phoenix lost four of last five games, is 3-7 in its last ten games as a road underdog. Suns’ last five games went over total. Knicks lost six of last eight games, are 10-3 as home favorites; last three New York games went over total. Suns won four of last six games with New York; they lost three of last four games in MSG, but are 3-1 vs spread in those games. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Rockets lost four of last six games; they’re 10-6 as road favorites, 8-2 if they played night before. Rockets’ last three games stayed under. Grizzlies won/covered last four home games; they’re 6-4 as home underdogs. Over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Memphis won five of last seven games with Houston; over is 7-3 in last 10 series games. Rockets lost three of last five visits here.
San Antonio won six of its last eight games, is 2-0 as a road underdog. Over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Cleveland lost three of last five overall, but they’re 19-3 SU at home, 9-4-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite. Under is 7-5 in their last 12 home games. Spurs won eight of last ten games with Cleveland (2-2 since Lebron came back to Cavs); San Antonio won four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Sacramento lost seven of last eight games, is 7-10 as a road underdog. Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Chicago lost five of last seven games, is 3-10 in last 13 games as a home favorite. Three of Bulls’ last four games went over total. Bulls won last three games with Sacramento by 18-5-7 points; Kings lost last five visits to Windy City, but covered four of the five losses. Last six series games stayed under.
Indiana won seven of last nine games, is 5-8 as a road underdog, 1-6 if they played night before. Last three Pacer games stayed under total. Utah won its last five games but is 2-7 vs spread in its last nine; they’re 6-10 as a home favorite. Last three Jazz games went over total. Jazz won last two games with Indiana after losing six of previous seven series games. Pacers split last four visits here. Four of last six series games stayed under.
Clippers are without Paul/Griffin; LA won seven of last eight games, is 2-6 vs spread in last eight road games- under is 6-2-1 in their last nine overall. Denver won three of last four games, is 1-5 vs spread in its last six home games. Nuggets’ last nine games all went over the total. Clippers won six of last eight games with Denver, winning by 15-17 points in last two visits here. Eight of last nine series games stayed under.
Armadillosports.com
Spurs, Cavs clash in Cleveland
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
LeBron vs. Kawhi is this weekend’s must-see matchup.
The new year has brought some struggles to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have posted an unimpressive record of 5-4 in the month of January. After a 118-103 home win over the Suns on Thursday (CLE -11), they sit at an overall record of 30-11 (18-21-2 ATS) and continue to hold a small cushion over the Raptors for first place in the Eastern Conference. The Phoenix win came on the tails of a 126-91 spanking at Golden State on Monday night (GSW +9), so it served as a necessary boost in morale. While the Cavaliers get to spend the weekend at home, they once again will face one of the NBA’s best teams when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night. The Spurs have also posted a winning percentage in January that is lower than their season-long mark, as they are 33-9 overall (25-16-1 ATS) and 6-3 in 2017. They have won two straight games after taking down the visiting Nuggets 118-104 on Thursday (SAS -13). Cleveland PF Kevin Love is questionable for Saturday’s game with a back injury and C Tristan Thompson is probable with an injured finger. C Pau Gasol is out for the Spurs and PG Tony Parker is questionable with an ailing ankle.
The Spurs boast the fourth most efficient offense in the NBA, as they average 114.1 points per 100 possessions. They’re just as strong defensively, ranking fourth in the league in allowing only 104.7 points per 100 possessions. They play the fourth-slowest pace in the league at 93.8 possessions per 48 minutes. They are once again led by the two-way brilliance of Kawhi Leonard (25.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.9 SPG). Leonard was named an All-Star starter on Thursday night, and he has certainly earned it this season. He has been especially brilliant as of late, scoring at least 30 points in five straight games. He is 10th in the league in scoring on the year, improving on last season’s career-best 21.2 PPG by nearly four points per game. He’s also fifth in the league in steals. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (17.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.0 BPG) joins Leonard in the frontcourt as the only players on the team that play over 30 minutes per game and shoot over 11 times per game. In light of Gasol (11.7 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG) breaking his finger in pregame warmups on Thursday, Aldridge will likely see himself shooting even more. Starting in his place was PF David Lee (6.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG), who scored 10 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in 33 minutes. While he can certainly hit the boards, Lee offers nowhere near the defensive capabilities of Gasol (or pretty much any other big in the league). C Dewayne Dedmon (4.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 0.9 BPG) does, and he scored seven points in 19 minutes against the Suns. Rookie PG Dejounte Murray (3.7 PPG) started in place of Parker (11.5 PPG, 4.8 APG) on Thursday and scored a career-high 24 points. PG Patty Mills (9.9 PPG, 3.4 APG) and SGs Manu Ginobili (8.0 PPG, 1.25 SPG) and Danny Green (7.6 PPG, 0.9 SPG) also play important roles in the backcourt.
Cleveland’s offense is just a hair less efficient than the Spurs’ this season in averaging 112.7 points per 100 possessions. They are 14th in the NBA with a defensive efficiency rating of 107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. They play at a pace of 96.6 possessions per 48 minutes (17th in NBA). As is the case annually, there is an argument to be made that SF LeBron James (25.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 8.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) is the most underrated player in the league despite being widely regarded as its best. His brilliance often flies under the radar; on a team filled with stars he is ninth in the league in scoring, fifth in assists (first among forwards), 28th in rebounding (third among small forwards) and 10th in steals. He is shooting over 50% from the floor (51.5%) for the seventh time in eight years, and is fourth among small forwards in shooting percentage. This year, however, his sidekick has taken on a larger role. Somehow still only 24 years old, PG Kyrie Irving (23.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.2 SPG) is averaging career highs in scoring and field goal attempts (18.9 per game to LeBron’s 18.2). He had 26 points for the second time in three games on Thursday, but he’s only shooting 39% from the floor in the month of January (46.2% on the year). Seemingly bolstered by his role in a successful title run last season, PF Kevin Love (20.7 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 0.9 SPG) has returned to the 20-and-10 form for which he was known before joining the Cavs. He sat out the Phoenix game, however, and has appeared limited by a back injury for a couple of weeks now. SF Kyle Korver (8.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG) was recently added to the squad to join PF Channing Frye (9.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) as a three-point specialist. He has made 10 of 27 attempts from deep (37%) since joining the team. C Tristan Thompson (7.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG) is the team’s lone significant interior defensive presence.
Inside the Paint - Saturday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Game of the Night – San Antonio at Cleveland
The Spurs and Cavaliers met in the 2007 NBA Finals and according to Sportsbook.ag, a major offshore outfit, the pair have a legitimate shot to meet again this summer.
In their NBA Finals Possible Matchups prop, a San Antonio-Cleveland combination garners 11/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $550).
Bettors will get a chance to see the pair in action on Saturday as Cleveland (30-11 straight up, 18-21-2 against the spread) welcomes San Antonio (33-9 SU, 25-17 ATS) to Quicken Loans Arena for a nationally televised showdown.
No overnight line was posted on this game due to the injury status of a couple big men. San Antonio’s Pau Gasol is ‘out’ with a finger injury while Cleveland’s Kevin Love (back) is listed as ‘questionable.’
Coincidentally, these teams met in a primetime showdown last season on ABC and Cleveland ran past San Antonio for a 117-103 victory at home. Since LeBron James returned to the Cavaliers, the series is knotted at 2-2 and three of the four games were decided by four points or left. The total has gone 2-2 during this span.
Cleveland looked sharp in Thursday’s 118-103 home win over Phoenix, covering as an 11-point favorite. Prior to that victory, the Cavaliers were mired in a 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS rut with six of those games taking place on the road.
San Antonio also notched a blowout win this past Thursday, a 118-104 decision over Denver as 13-point home favorite. While the Cavs have struggled versus the number this season, the Spurs have been a great investment and the point-spread rarely matters in their games. Going back to Dec. 6, San Antonio has covered the number in 15 of its 16 wins.
The Spurs did own the best road mark in the NBA at one point but they’ve been jumped recently by Golden State, who is 17-3 as a visitor. San Antonio started the season 15-0 on the road but it’s just 2-4 in its last six away.
Cleveland has gone 13-5 versus the Western Conference this season and four of the losses came on the road. At home, the Cavs have gone 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS in nine non-conference affairs. San Antonio is 13-4 SU and 9-8 ATS in non-conference action. On the road, the Spurs are 5-2 (3-4 ATS) versus the East but the two losses came by a combined six points.
As expected, both San Antonio (11-5) and Cleveland (12-6) have produced great records versus teams above .500 this season. If you’re expecting a close affair, the Cavaliers have the edge with a 3-0 mark in games decided by three points or less while the Spurs are 3-4 in that role.
East vs. West
Along with the marquee matchup, there are four other non-conference matchups slated for Saturday.
Portland at Boston: This game tips a tad early (5:00 p.m. ET) from TD Garden and the Celtics have been installed as healthy home favorites (-7½). The Trail Blazers are in terrible form right now, losing four straight and that includes a collapse at Philadelphia last night. Portland has been dreadful versus the East this season (5-11), especially on the road (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS). The home team went 2-0 in last year’s regular season games between the pair and both Boston and Portland notched exactly 116 points in their victories.
Phoenix at New York: Despite losing at Cleveland on Thursday, the Suns have gone 8-6 versus the East but six of those wins came in the desert. New York has gone 8-6 versus the West this season, which includes a 5-4 both SU and ATS mark at home. The Suns outlasted the Knicks 113-111 in the desert on Dec. 13 and the ‘over’ (219) connected. Phoenix has gone 1-3 in its last four trips to Madison Square Garden and the ‘under’ went 3-1 in those games. The Knicks (-6) have been a great wager as home favorites this season, going 9-2 both SU and ATS.
Sacramento at Chicago: The Bulls have won three straight against the Kings and they captured a 107-102 win in California last season. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and seven of the last eight meetings between the pair. Chicago has been shaky as a home favorite (9-8 SU, 7-10 ATS) this season and it’s only 2-5 from the United Center versus opponents from the West. Fortunately for the Bulls, Sacramento is 5-11 versus the East and only managed to go 2-7 on the road in those games.
Indiana at Utah: The Jazz have gone 10-6 versus the East this season and they’re starting to clean up at home, winning four straight non-conference matchups. The Pacers are 4-5 in non-conference games on the road and they’ve only been able to hold one opponent under 100 in this span. The Jazz swept the Pacers in the regular season series last season, which included a 122-119 shootout victory from Salt Lake City.
Zero Days Rest
Half of the 22 teams in action on Saturday will be playing back-to-back spots and there are three matchups that feature both clubs facing no rest.
Listed below are their records on zero days rest this season and notable trends.
Portland: 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS (Trail Blazers have won and covered three of last four)
Philadelphia: 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS (76ers are 3-1 ATS last four)
Brooklyn: 0-6 SU, 2-3-1 ATS (Nets allowing 118.7 PPG)
Charlotte: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U (Hornets 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS last three)
Milwaukee: 2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS (Over 3-0 last three, 4-1 last five)
Houston: 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS (League-Best record)
Memphis: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS (Grizzlies 0-2 last two, but 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS at FedEx Forum)
Utah: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS (Jazz are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS last four)
Indiana: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS (Allowing 120 PPG in four road games)
Sacramento: 2-6 SU, 3-4-1 ATS (Kings are 1-4 last five, only averaging 97 PPG on no rest)
Chicago: 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-7 O/U (Three of the four wins came on the road)
Total Notes
The Denver Nuggets have seen 75 percent of their games go ‘over’ (30-10) this season and they enter Saturday’s matchup at home versus the Clippers with a nine-game run to the high side. Los Angeles is playing with a short-handed squad but the ‘over’ has gone 13-7 in its road games this season.
Chicago has been the best ‘under’ bet (29-15) in the NBA this season and that includes a 13-9 home record.
Something has to give in the Brooklyn-Charlotte matchup tonight. The Nets have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight while the Hornets are on a 4-0 run to the ‘under.’
The lowest total (202½) for Saturday takes place between Indiana and Utah. Despite slowing it down and playing great defense, the Jazz have seen the ‘over’ cash in its last three games.