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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, September 27th, 2016

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Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, September 27th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 7:59 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Cubs -155

We cashed a nice free play last night with the Cubs and we are back on the again tonight as they fit a nice 16-2 system that plays on road favorites at -140 or more with a total of 8 or less that are off a 5+ runs road favored win and scored 10+ runs. They have a pitching advantage with Lackey over Voglesong. The Cubs are 31-11 on the road vs a division opponent they lead in the standings and 3-0 as a road favorite after scoring 10 or more runs. The Pirates have lost 17 of 23 at home and are 0-3 as a home dog off a 5+ runs home loss.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 8:00 am
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Jim Feist

A's at Angels
Pick: Over

This is a decent offensive park and Oakland is on a 6-1 run over the total on the road. Daniel Mengden (2-8, 5.74 ERA) is on the mound, walking 32 in 69 innings, a poor ratio. The Over is 8-2 when Mengden is on the hill. Ricky Nolasco is on the mound for LA with a 7-14 record and a 4.60 ERA and the over is 11-2 in Angels last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record. When these rivals clash the over is 8-2, plus the over is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings in Los Angeles.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 8:02 am
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Wunderdog

Colorado @ San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -1.5

San Francisco is battling for a playoff spot while Colorado has lost four in a row and six of its last seven and playing out the string. The Rockies are #25 in the major leagues with a .702 OPS away from home. They have also lost 18 of their last 23 road games and 38 of their last 51 roadies against left-handed starters. German Marquez pitched five innings in his first start and gave up a run and four hits against St. Louis, but this will be his first career road start. In three relief appearances, the right-hander allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings. Matt Moore will try to bounce back from a rough outing in Los Angeles and the Giants won his two previous starts as he was the winning pitcher in both. San Francisco is the prohibitive favorite in this matchup, so take them to win by two.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 1:48 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +118 over TORONTO

The Orioles have an ace and his name is Kevin Gausman. With their offense and this ace, they are very worthy of backing when taking back a tag like they are here. Gausman has broke out in 2016, especially in the second half with 9.2 K’s/9, 2.5 BB’s/9, 45% grounders and a xERA 2.96. Digging deeper, Gausman has become lethal against lefty bats with an oppBA of just .215 and striking out 28% of lefties faced. Gausman has a BB/K split of 6/35 over his last 33 innings with an ERA of 2.16. No pitcher in baseball is hotter than Kevin Gausman is right now.

Aaron Sanchez is Toronto’s ace but Sanchez does not compare to Gausman right now in terms of current form. The Jays organization keeps telling Sanchez that he’s tired and he’s starting to believe it. Sanchez was sent down for 10 days in August and recently had 10 days between starts too. That’s not how to keep a guy in rhythm. He has walked 12 batters and struck out just 13 over his last 23 frames for a horrible ratio. Sanchez’s swinging strike rate since mid-July is weak at 7%. Sanchez’s gilt-edged groundball rate is capable of offsetting his poor command right now but not enough to get us to back off. Aaron Sanchez has turned into a significant risk while Kevin Gausman has turned into a completely reliable ace. That's enough for us to step in and take perhaps the best value of the day.

Oakland +122 over L.A. ANGELS

The final week of the season usually provides great value on these teams that are traveling because the host players that are not going to the playoffs have plenty of other things on their mind besides baseball, like making all the arrangements for off-season stuff.

Ricky Nolasco has been on a decent roll for the Halos but a disaster likely awaits him here because that is who he is. Nolasco hasn’t had sustained good stretch of games in 12 years. With a 1.80 ERA over his last five starts and a 4.60 xERA over that same span, it is easy to predict that regression is likely. Nolasco will end the season going from fringe to unusable. Ignore his last five starts because his career rates in just about everything are bleak. Nolasco is always at the mercy of his strand rate because he’s super-hittable (9.8 H/9) and gets WHIPped in the process.

Daniel Mengden has been more bad than good in his stints with Oakland in 2016 (5.74 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). However, he has been very good in flashes with an outstanding 26 inning stretch in June and another great 15 IP stretch in September. He also was quite effective in Triple-A (17/67 BB/K in 75 IP). Mengden has 70 K’s in 69 innings thus far in his MLB debut. His 4.17 xERA is more than 1½ runs lower than his actual ERA. Daniel Mengden is a young rookie with upside while Ricky Nolasco is an old vet with little left.

Milwaukee +160 over TEXAS

We’ll go deep inside the numbers once the playoffs begin to reveal how incredibly lucky the Rangers have been this season but we’ll be happy to take back prices like this against them now, especially when Yu Darvish or Cole Hamels isn’t pitching. No, it’ll be A.J. Griffin and his 87 MPH fastball on the mound for this one.

Griffin has not been nearly as effective since coming back from a shoulder strain in June. Griffin has contracted a raging case of gopheritis, giving up three HR's in one game three times, a bunch of 2’s and plenty of one’s also. In fact, in his last 10 starts, Griffin has been tagged for an incredible 17 jacks and is now up to 26 bombs allowed in just 115 innings. You would be hard-pressed to find a starter in baseball that holds more risk than A.J. Griffin. In fantasy, he’s not even a last resort and now he’s favored like he’s John Lackey.

Jimmy Nelson is a hit and miss pitcher that we have to hope has a decent outing here. Nelson might give up 10 runs but that’s a discussion for another time because if we’re playing strictly on value, A.J. Griffin must be faded at prices like this, period.

Colorado +170 over SAN FRAN

The Rockies are out of it but they will do everything in their power to try and take the Giants down with them. San Fran is just 4-6 in its past 10 games but have been laboring much longer than that. In fact, since the All-Star break only one team in MLB has a worse record than the Giants and now they’re being asked to spot another big price with Matt Moore throwing. The Giants remain in line to set a record for the biggest swing in winning percentage from the first half to the second half. Their drop of .255--from .633 to .378--is the greatest since the first-half/second-half dichotomy was established by the 1933 All-Star game, ahead of the 1943 Philadelphia Athletics, who followed a 34-44 first half with a cover-your-eyes 15-61 second half, a .238 decline.

Moore hasn’t brought much to the Giants playoff push with no underlying support whatsoever for any success that he has had. Moore is having trouble finding the plate with a very high 40% ball% and he isn't missing bats at a high clip either (7.6 % swing and miss rate). View him as a high-risk proposition with more downside than it appears and it’s not getting better. Moore has a 2.00 WHIP and 7.29 ERA over his last five starts so it appears as though he’s also running on fumes.

The Rockies acquired German Marquez from Tampa Bay in January 2016 and he now finds himself in the majors after his breakout season in the minors. Marquez has an impressive arsenal and increased velocity that proved successful in his first stint in Double-A. The Rockies promoted him to Triple-A in August and he continued to throw consistent strikes. Marquez throws with easy arm action and increased strength has led to his fastball, which is now consistently touching 94-97 mph. He can take a few ticks off to provide a little deception and movement, but the power arm is getting glowing reviews. His curveball has also been enhanced, making it more of a plus offering that can wipe out hitters from both sides. The last piece of the puzzle is his change-up that has kept left-handed hitters at bay. When all offerings are working together, he can be very tough, as he was in his starting debut last week against the Cardinals in which he went five full at Coors and allowed just four hits and one earned run. San Fran is priced like they're playing well and Moore is priced like he’s pitching well but both are false.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 2:53 pm
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Jeff Alexander

Mets -162

Props to the Marlins for how they came out and played last night in memory of their fallen teammate, but I just don't see this team having anything left in the tank for today's game. Miami is not only physically drained, but emotionally drained after everything that's taken place the last 2 days. New York on the other hand is in desperation mode, as they need every win they can get down the stretch while fighting for one of the two Wild Card spots. Mets will send out Noah Syndergaard, who has dominated the Marlins twice this season, allowing just 3 earned runs with 21 strikeouts in 14 innings.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 2:53 pm
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Brandon Lee

A's / Angels Under 9

I'll gladly take the UNDER in today's AL West clash between the A's and Angels. Neither of these teams are great offensively and both come in struggling at the plate. Oakland has scored 1 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6 games and Los Angeles has scored a combined 3 runs in their last 2 games. With this game being played in pitcher friendly Angel Stadium, I look for this one to go well below the mark. A's will send out Daniel Mengden, who has a solid 3.06 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Angels will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who has been even better of late, posting a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last 3 outings.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 2:54 pm
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Mike Lundin

Twins vs. Royals
Play: Over 8½

The reigning World Series champions Kansas City Royals are just one loss from being mathematically eliminated from the American League wild card race. The Royals have at least had their way with the Minnesota Twins this year, winning 13 of 16 matchups, and I think we'll see a high-scoring game between the two teams tonight.

Ian Kennedy (11-10, 3.64) takes the ball for Kansas City. He was charged with three runs on a season-high 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings in a setback to Cleveland his last time out. He's posted a 3.35 ERA in six career starts versus the Twins and now he'll face a rested Minnesota team. The over 11-5 in Twins last 16 games following an off day.

The Royals also had Monday off after an intense three-game series with the Tigers which saw a total of 43 runs scored. Over is 13-3-1 in Royals' last 17 home games, and they must like their chances of staying effective at the plate against Jose Berrios (2-7, 8.88 ERA). The 22-year-old rookie was reached for five runs on a season-high nine hits in five innings of an 11-5 loss against Kansas City earlier this month.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 2:54 pm
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Jimmy Boyd

Phillies/Braves Under 8

I really like the value here on the total going under the mark in Tuesday's NL East matchup that has the Braves hosting the Phillies. These two teams are just going through the motions at this point in the season and I see that as a big edge for today's starters.

Philadelphia gives the rock to Jerad Eickhoff, who has been locked in down the stretch. Eickhoff has a 2.75 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Atlanta counters with Julio Teheran, who has a 3.10 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 28 starts and is fresh off a strong outing against the Mets, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 7 innings.

The big key here is how well both of these starters have done against the opposition. Eickhoff has a 1.45 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Braves, while Teheran has a 2.28 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Phillies.

UNDER is 12-3 in Eickhoff's last 15 starts after a quality start in his last outing, 8-2-1 in Phillies last 11 games with Eickhoff starting after scoring 2 runs or less and 3-0-1 in Philadelphia's last 4 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 9-3-1 in Teheran's last 13 starts during game 1 of a series and 21-7 in his last 28 starts when working on 5 or 6 days of rest.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 2:55 pm
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Jack Jones

Chicago Cubs -159

The Chicago Cubs have showed no signs of letting up even though they just reached 100 wins and have everything clinched. This is the loosest the clubhouse has ever been, and it's paying dividends as the Cubs have won six of their last seven games after a 12-2 victory last night.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost three straight and will struggle to be motivated the rest of the way as they have basically been eliminated. They are expected to give their regulars time off here down the stretch now that they have nothing to play for.

John Lackey is 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA in his last eight starts. He'll be up against Ryan Vogelsong, who is 0-3 with a 9.14 ERA in his last four starts. Vogelsong is 5-8 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.663 WHIP in 13 career starts against Chicago.

The Cubs are 41-16 in their last 57 games overall. Chicago is 72-31 in its last 103 vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 6-20 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Pittsburgh is 4-17 in its last 21 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Pirates are 4-17 in Vogelsong's last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 2:55 pm
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Dave Price

Seattle Mariners +108

After picking up a huge 4-3 win in extra innings last night against the Astros, the Mariners are now only 2 games back in the wild card. The Astros are 3.5 games back now with a slim-to-none chance of making the postseason. I like the price here on the Mariners as underdogs with ace Felix Hernandez taking the ball. He is 11-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 23 starts, 6-3 with a 3.43 ERA in 11 road starts, and 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. He'll be opposed by Mike Fiers, who is 11-8 with a 4.45 ERA in 29 starts, and 1-2 with a 5.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. Seattle is 9-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games this season. The Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10 road games. The Mariners are 8-2 in Hernandez's last 10 starts.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 2:56 pm
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Larry Ness

Seattle vs. Houston
Pick: Houston

Houston opened its final seven-game homestand last Thursday against the Angels just one game out of the second AL wild card spot. However, the Astros lost the first three games, before winning 4-1 on Sunday. Houston’s 4-3, 11-inning loss last night to the Mariners dropped them 3 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot at 82-75 and with just five games left, the team's postseason hopes are all but over. The 83-73 Mariners moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Astros in the AL wild-card race but they are still two games behind the 85-71 Orioles, who were idle on Monday. The three-game series continues tonight.

The pitching matchup features Felix Hernandez (11-6, 3.61 ERA) for Seattle and Mike Fiers (11-8, 4.40 ERA) for Houston. Injuries have limited “King Felix” in 2016, as this marks just his 24th start of the season. "We've got a chance," Mariners manager Scott Servais said. "That's what we've been playing for and the guys, you can feel it, they really believe. Big game (Tuesday) night.” Is Hernandez up to the challenge? Houston has won FIVE of the last seven times in which Fiers has started and on the season, Houston is 11-5 in Fiers’ home starts.

Hernandez settled for a no-decision in his last start despite allowing only two hits over seven scoreless innings against Toronto. However, he had allowed five ERs or more in three of his previous four starts, prior to that one. Hernandez has not pitched like a ‘king’ in his career vs Houston, entering with 3-4 record (4.07 ERA) over nine all-time starts (Mariners are 4-5). Houston will not be back in the postseason this year but a win here will be a ‘dagger to the heart’ of Seattle’s chances to reach the postseason for the first time since 2001. Note: King Felix” has yet to make a postseason start. Houston is the bet.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 2:57 pm
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Gary Bart

Orioles at Blue Jays
Play: Orioles +123

This is a big game for both teams. The winner should assure themselves a playoff spot. The Orioles are coming off a sweep over Arizona at home, while Toronto won their last series at home against the Yankees. Aron Sanchez is coming off a good effort in his last start after two sub-par performances. Look for him to struggle against this Orioles lineup. I like Baltimore. No further selections today.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 3:29 pm
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ASA

Brewers at Rangers
Play: Over

The Brewers will have Jimmy Nelson toeing the rubber at Globe Life Park in Arlington tonight and this should help lead to plenty of big innings in this game for the Rangers. After getting drilled 8-3 yesterday, Texas should bounce back against a right-hander who has a 7.15 ERA in his last 10 starts. Opponents are hitting .311 against Nelson since early August and the Rangers had pounded out 32 hits in their last 3 game series at home and we expect them to get right back on track against a struggling Brewers starter. Texas will hand the ball to A.J. Griffin for this one and he is 3-3 with a 6.32 ERA in his last 9 starts. Griffin had a 3.81 ERA at the All Star break but his ERA in 12 starts since then is a 5.89 as he continues to have issues with inconsistency. The Brewers have been road warriors of late as Milwaukee has won 5 of their last 6 away from home and they’ve averaged 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. Despite Griffin pitching so poorly that he was out of the game by the 2nd inning in his most recent start (at home), that game did stay under the total. However, the over was 6-2 in Griffin’s prior eight home starts on the season. Look for that high-scoring trend to resume here as the over is also 5-2 in Nelson’s last 7 road starts. This total is currently sitting at 9.5 runs and the over is 13-7 in Milwaukee’s road games with a total sitting at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. With yesterday’s game flying over the total, the Brewers inter-league games are 12-5 to the over this season. The Rangers home games (with total sitting at 9 or 9.5 runs) have gone 28-15 to the over this season. We expect more of the same Tuesday as this one flies OVER the number.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 4:30 pm
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Dave Essler

Baltimore +125

We faded Sanchez in his last outing at Seattle successfully, and will do so again. The Jays have lost the last three of his starts and his ERA over the last 7 starts is 4.54, which I attribute to the fact that he's pitched twice as many innings this season than he ever has in any one season - and he's very young. He beat the O's in his last start against them a month ago, and we like to go the other way in the next matchup. This will be the 5th time Baltimore has seen him this season - so they know full well what to expect. Gausman was just shelled by Boston, but that was the second time he'd faced them in a week - again, we go the other way the return matchup. He shutout Boston on four hits the previous game, in Fenway. Baltimore is 5-2 in his last seven starts, he's 5-1. The Orioles bullpen has an ERA of 0.64 and a WHIP of 0.70 over the last week, which includes games against Arizona, who can hit, and Boston. Toronto lost to the Yankees yesterday, Baltimore rested. At plus-money, I'll take my chances.

 
Posted : September 27, 2016 4:30 pm
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