Notifications
Clear all

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, August 29th, 2016

28 Posts
1 Users
0 Likes
1,301 Views
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Monday, August 29th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 9:38 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

DAVE COKIN

YANKEES AT ROYALS
PLAY: YANKEES F5

I have no desire to try and beat the red hot Royals over a full nine innings. They’re back to working that KC magic again. That is, hang around early, get hot as the game progresses and then hand the game over to a bullpen that is about as pure shutdown as it gets right now.

But I don’t have a problem trying to get a first half win against Kansas City when the starting pitcher matchup dictates such a maneuver, and I believe that’s the case tonight.

Michael Pineda can be maddeningly erratic. I don’t think his stuff plays as well when he’s pitching out of the stretch, and that’s why crooked numbers can be an issue for the righty. But Pineda has been pitching some reasonably good ball for the Yankees, and I can see him being okay for five or six innings tonight.

Dillon Gee just hasn’t been very good for Kansas City. I’ve got him grading out at better than average in only three of his 11 starts. I do need to point out that two of those have come recently, so I would not classify Gee as auto-fade material, at least not presently.

But the bottom line for me is that when doing the head to head comparatives in the categories I value the most, it’s a clean sweep for Pineda over Gee. I’ve been having quite a bit of success playing these scenarios as long as the price is right, and I shouldn’t have a problem with that here. So I’ll go back to that well once again, and will make a Yankees F5 play for the Monday comp.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 9:44 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Sleepyj

Nationals -1.5 -125

I'll back the Nats here on the road laying the RL...I think the Nats can get it done by a few runs with Roark on the mound...Nats haven't been anything special the alst few days, but they are coming off a loss to the Rockies..Nats can't afford to slip up coming down the stretch against bad teams....Phillies will send out Thompson and he has been blistered in 4 starts this year...His numbers are getting worse and in 19 innings of work he has allowed a total of 21ER...So he is giving up a run an inning. that's not very good and neither is his ERA...It sits at 9.78 currently...I don't see any reason to back the Phils or Thompson here...His walks are around 3 or 4 a game and strikeouts around 3 or 4....Nats will be in go mode for this series and Thompson will be the kick start the Nats need off a loss.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 9:45 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Rob Vinciletti

Twins vs. Indians
Play: Over 9

The Twins have gone over in 20 of the last 25 and 6 straight. Cleveland averages 5.8 runs at home. Home favorites of -140 or more off a road favored loss where they scored 2 or less run on 5+ hits have flown over 85% ling term vs a team that is off a road dog loss and had 10+ hits like the Twins. Santiago makes the start for the Twins and he has a 5.16 era and a 12.21 era in his last 3 starts. In his starts vs the Indians his Era is 6.63. Bauer for Cleveland has a 4.43 home Era and a 5.56 era vs Minnesota. Look for this one to play over the total.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 9:46 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Scott Spreitzer

Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Royals +105

Kansas City has won 17 of its last 21 games and now the Royals go home where they are 40-21 this season. Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 5.02 ERA and he gave up five runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings his last outing at Seattle. Pineda is 2-6 on the road and he has given up six runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Royals this season. Last year against Kansas City, Pineda allowed six runs and 16 hits in 12 innings. Seven players on the Royals roster are batting at least .300 against the right-hander. Dillon Gee has allowed the Yankees just one run with three hits in 5 1/3 innings this year. Kansas City has won 14 of its last 17 against right-handed starters and we'll back there here.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 9:47 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Big Al

Dodgers vs Rockies
Pick: Under

For Rookie starters having just come into the Majors, pitching at Coors Field can be quite an intimidating experience. But don't tell the Dodgers' RHP Kenta Maeda that. For one thing, although he is technically a rookie and this is his first go-around in the Majors, Maeda is 28 years old with a lot of professional experience. And of course, in Japan - where Maeda pitched professionally from 2008 through 2015 - Maeda pitched in a lot of small, hitter-friendly ballparks. Maeda certainly wasn't intimidated the first time he went into Coors this season on April 23. That was just his fourth MLB start and Maeda threw 6 1/3 innings of near-perfect ball on the way to an easy 4-1 victory. The second time was less than a month ago (Aug. 4) when Maeda beat the Rockies again, tossing 5 2/3 innings of two-run, four-hit ball for another easy win, 4-2. Perhaps the most impressive thing about those two starts is that Maeda didn't issue a single walk in either. He's ready to do it again, and his opposing starter also hasn't minded pitching here. RH Jon Gray's ERA may be a little high at home (5.11) but he's 5-1 and has a nice 1.21 WHIP in 11 Coors starts.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 9:48 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Larry Ness

Toronto vs. Baltimore
Pick: Toronto

Toronto completed a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins over the weekend and at 74-56, owns a two-game lead in the AL East over the Boston Red Sox. Baltimore’s 5-0 Sunday win helped them avoid a weekend sweep at the hands of the Yankees and at 71-59, the Orioles sit in third-place in the AL East, three games back of the Blue Jays. Baltimore is one game back of Boston but does own the AL’s second wild card spot, two games up on the Tigers, as well as leading the Astros, Mariners and Royals by three games. The two AL East rivals open a three-game series Monday night at Camden Yards, where the Orioles are 42-22.

The pitching matchup will be Marco Estrada (7-6, 3.47 ERA) for Toronto and Wade Miley (8-10, 5.51 ERA) for Baltimore. Estrada's ERA has jumped by more than half a run after his last two starts, as he allowed 11 ERs on 15 hits (FIVE of them HRs) in only nine innings of work (lost t8-2 to the LAA and received a no-decision in a 12-6 win over the NYY). However, Estrada’s 3.47 ERA on the season ranks 13th among all AL qualified starters! His mound opponent, Wade Miley, has no such claim. He was acquired him from the Mariners in a trade deadline deal and has gone 1-2 in five starts with his new team (Orioles are 2-3), posting an 8.18 ERA and 1.86 WHIP.

Yes, Baltimore owns a strong home record but let’s not forget that Baltimore was just 1-5 in its last homestand and I don’t see Miley beating the AL East’s best team.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 9:49 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Jim Feist

Chicago at Detroit
Pick: Over

The Detroit Tigers still have a shot at both the AL Central division and the Wild Card. The Tigers are just 4.5 back of the Inidans for the division and two back for a Wild Card spot. The Angels snapped Detroit's five game win streak on Saturday and then beat them again on Sunday, 5-0. Matt Boyd gets the start tonight. Boyd has a nice 5-2 record with a 3.98 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his 13 starts this season. Boyd gave up two home runs in his last start, where he went six innings and gave up three runs for the win at Minnesota. The White Sox have faded fast, now 10 games back in the AL Central. The Sox have won two straight and six of seven. James Shields is a far cry from the pitcher we remember with the Padres a few years back. Shields is 5-16 with a 5.98 ERA and 1.61 Whip this year (combined AL & NL). The 10-year veteran has had five bad starts in a row, allowing at least four runs in each contest and seeing his ERA climb from 5.64 to 7.49 in the A.L. In addition, Sheilds has allowed 11 home runs over is last four starts. These clubs have gone OVER in five of their last seven meetings in Detroit and with Shields on the hill,

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 9:50 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Ray Monohan

Miami / New York Over 7

The Marlins and Mets begin a weekday series and the Over here has some value. Yes, Jose Fernandez gets the ball for the Marlins, but this Over has a lot to do with the Mets and their starter.

To give Jacob deGrom a break, New York sends out Rafael Montero. This will be his first start of the season and while he has worked out of the bullpen this season, Montero has made starts between Double A and Triple A and things haven't been good. He sits with an ERA of 5.15 over a 24 start span.

Some trends to note.Over is 20-8 in Mets last 28 on grass. Over is 13-4 in Fernandezs last 17 starts with 4 days of rest.

The Marlins should have no problem scoring today. If the Marlins can add just a couple runs here, with the low total this Over can be an easy one to hit.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 12:08 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Brandon Lee

Marlins -151

Miami is worth a look here against the Mets on Monday. I have no problem laying this big number on the Marlins with Jose Fernandez on the mound, especially given how he's dominated New York over his career. Fernandez has faced the Mets 7 times and has posted a 1.54 ERA and 0.951 WHIP against them, with Miami winning 6 of those 7 starts. Making this an even stronger play is the fact that the Mets are sending out rookie Rafael Montero, who has made just 1 big league start the past two years. I'll take my chances that Montero doesn't match Fernandez in this one.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 12:08 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers -120

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won six of their last eight as they try and distance themselves from the San Francisco Giants atop the NL West. With the edge they have on the mound tonight over the Colorado Rockies, they should be bigger than -120 favorites.

Kenta Maeda is having a tremendous rookie season, going 13-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 25 starts with 142 K's in 141 2/3 innings. Maeda is 8-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 12 road starts. He is also 2-1 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in three starts against Colorado this season.

Jon Gray is now 8-6 with a 4.68 ERA in 23 starts this season, 5-1 in spite of a 5.25 ERA in 11 home starts, and 0-1 with a 7.54 ERA in his last three starts. Gray is also 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in four career starts against the Dodgers.

Los Angeles is 27-9 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 4 or less hits over the last two seasons. The Dodgers are 6-0 in Maeda's last six starts. The Rockies are 1-6 in their last seven during game 1 of a series.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 12:08 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Scott Rickenbach

Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Under 8½

The Rangers struggles at the plate continued yesterday. Even at home, against a pitcher they should crush, Texas had to eke out a 2-1 win. The Rangers are only 4-4 in their last 8 games and have averaged only 7 hits per game during this stretch. Texas now faces a hurler who has been tough on them so this won't help matters. Hisashi Iwakuma gets the start for the Mariners. He is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA and fantastic 1.08 WHIP in his 17 career starts against the Rangers. Iwakuma has allowed 5 earned runs on just 12 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. The Rangers will have Yu Darvish on the mound and he is 4-0 with a 2.80 ERA and a solid 1.05 WHIP in his six home starts this season. The Mariners have lost 5 of their last 6 games and have averaged only 2.3 runs and 6.3 hits per game in their last 6 games. Look for a pitchers duel at Globe Life Park in Arlington tonight. As a road dog in a range of +150 to +175 this season, the under is 4-1 in Mariners games. Unders are 10-4 in Seattle's Monday games this season. The under is 15-7 in Texas games this month and 49-23 the past 3 Augusts combined. 13 of the Rangers last 18 games against teams with a winning record have stayed under the total.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 12:09 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Jimmy Boyd

Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Royals +117

Kansas City is showing amazing value here as a small home underdog against the Yankees on Monday. The Royals are absolutely on fire at the moment, as they are locked in on closing out the season strong and getting back the playoffs. KC has gone 17-4 over their last 21 games to get right back in the thick of things in both the AL Central and Wild Card races.

The Royals are a dominant 40-21 at home and with the way they are playing right now, there is no reason they should be a dog on their home field. KC will send out Dillon Gee, who is working on back-to-back strong starts, giving up just 4 runs on 10 hits with 1 walk in 12 1/3 innings of work. NY will counter with Michael Pineda, who has been extremely inconsistent. In his last start, Pineda allowed 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in just 5 1/3 innings of work at Seattle. He's just 2-6 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 12 road starts this season and in his lone start against the Royals this season, allowed 6 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in 5 2/3 innings.

Yankees are swinging the bats well, but are just 3-10 in their last 13 when they come in having hit .333 or better as a team over their last 3 games. Royals are 14-3 in their last 17 against a right-handed starter, 5-0 in their last 5 in game 1 of a series and 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 12:10 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Marc Lawrence

St. Louis at Milwaukee
Pick: St. Louis

Edges - Cardinals: Carlos Martinez 15-5 last 20 away team starts, including 2.36 ERA with 1.15 WHIP away this season. Brewers: 4-15 last 19 overall games in this series; and 4-15 last 19 overall game as a host in this series. With Martinez 4-0 with a microscopic 0.62 ERA in his last four starts in this park, we recommend a 1* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 12:11 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Bruce Marshall

Dodgers at Rockies
Play: Rockies

Colorado starter Jon Gray straightened out effectively in his last start on Tuesday vs. the Brewers, striking out 10 in 6 IP. And Gray is 5-1 this season at Coors Field. Meanwhile, Dodger starter Kenta Maeda is still not pitching more than 5 innings, and while LA has won his last starts, Maeda has also been able to benefit from a whopping 53 runs of support in those games.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 2:05 pm
Page 1 / 2
Share: