Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Sunday, August 28th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Sleepyj
Chargers +6
I'll take a shot with the dog here..Chargers getting +6 in a preseason games seems a bit too much....Minnesota has won two games already this preseason and going all out here seems like a little too much....Two tough road games as well with wins..Now they come back home and i worry they might enjoy being back in Minnesota a little too much...The starters have played in both games and stretching them into the 3rd seems unlikely...Vikings defense has been very good thus far, but guys are getting banged up on that side of the ball...chargers are coming off a win and the offense has yet to really get it together...I expect the Chargers to be the team pressing the issue here..Small wager, I feel this line is off here by a full 2 points..I'll grab em.
Dave Cokin
Arizona Cardinals +1
It's "dress rehearsal" week in the NFL with most teams expected to have their regulars on the field for a good amount of time. That also means more actiual game planning than in the other exhibition games for the majority of NFL teams. But that really doesn't mean a great deal to me from an analytical standpoint, as the games still don't count and they really aren't played as though they do.
That said, I love seeing information that gives me a clue as tlo a team's mindset for its upcoming game. The games I've done best with this pre-season have been those where there were revealing quotes involved. Here's one that is as plain as day for this week. This one is from Arizona GM Steve Keim.
"We can't just go out there when the season starts and turn the switch on."
The Cardinals first team offense has been really dull in the first two games. It sure sounds like there's a sense of urgency here, and that's coming from the top of the food chain as far as team management is concerned. It might only be a pre-season game that doesn't count. But the last game this team plays that did count was brutal and the comments here indicate that there's a feeling that the team needs to get something positive accomplished this week. That might not be so easy against a tough looking Houston defense. But if Arizona is treating this game with what at least sounds like regular season focus, then I am definitely willing to back the Cardinals this weekend.
Rob Vinciletti
Padres vs. Marlins
Play: Under 8½
This one fits a nice system from the database that has gone under 13 of 15 times since 2004 an d pertains to home favorites like Miami that are off a 1 run home favored loss and scored 2 or less runs. The Fish have gone under in 6 of the last 7 and 7 of 9 as a home favorite off a home favored loss where they scored 2 or less runs. The Padres are 6 of 7 under a a road dog off a road win scoring 2 or less runs. Cashner will take on his old team tonight and both he and Perdomo should jeep this one under the total.
Bob Harvey
Phillies vs. Mets
Play: Over 8
The Mets go for a Big Apple sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies when they two clubs wrap up their three-game series.
The Mets (66-63, 33-30 home) didn’t help their playoff chances losing 16 of 23. But since that skid, they’ve bounced back to go 6-1 in their last seven as they look to cut into a 2.5 game deficit in the race for the second wild-card spot in the NL. The NY offense is hitting on all cylinders and has scored 31 runs in winning its last three games. Meanwhile it’s wait until next year for the Phillies (59-70, 29-37 road) who have lost 12 of their last 14 series vs. the Mets.
A pair of young hurlers will square off with Vince Velasquez tossing ‘em down for the Phillies while the Mets will counter with rookie Robert Gsellman. Velasquez (8-6, 4.31 ERA) is 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA in four August starts but does have an impressive 29 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings during that stretch. He opened his season with six scoreless innings at New York but was reached for five runs (two earned) in 4 1/3 frames in a rematch 10 days later.
Gsellman (1-0, 0.00) taking the spot of the injured Jon Niese, who suffered a knee injury Tuesday against St. Louis, and will be making his first major league start.
New York is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 games while Philadelphia is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 road games. The Phillies are also 19-6-2 to the high side in their last 27 overall.
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The Mariners and White Sox will square off in the rubber match of a three-game series Sunday afternoon. “King Felix” outdueled Chris Sale in Friday’s opener 3-1 but Chicago easily bested Seattle 9-3 Saturday night. The Mariners are 7 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West but just two games behind Baltimore for the second wild-card spot. Seven of Seattle’s next 11 games come against Texas, so the Mariners will be tested shortly. Are they a playoff contender or not? Chicago has already answered that question with a resounding no. The 62-66 White Sox are 7 1/2 games back of the second wild card spot and five teams are ahead of them!
Sunday’s pitching matchup will feature Seattle’s Taijuan Walker (4-8, 4.14 ERA) and Chicago’s Carlos Rodon (4-8, 4.02 ERA). Seattle has high hopes for Walker but the 24-year-old has had an up-and-down season which has included a month-long stint on the DL plus a brief demotion to Triple-A earlier this month. He allowed four runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings against the New York Yankees this past Tuesday, his first start since rejoining the big-league team. Chicago’s Rodon is 4-8 like Walker on the season (Chicago is 8-13 in all of his starts) but he’s been on quite a run here in August, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in four starts (team is 3-1). His last outing was his best effort of the month, allowing just three hits in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to beat Philadelphia 9-1 on Tuesday.
Walker is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox and Rodon is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts against the Mariners (team is 2-0), both coming in 2015. Rodon’s recent form makes Chicago tough to go against plus when one throws in Walker’s 2016’s road record (1-4 with a 5.34 ERA / team is 1-6), the play is definitely on the White Sox.
Jim Feist
Braves at Giants
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a terrible Atlanta offense is in town. The Under is 7-3 in Braves last 10 Sunday games. They face San Fran ace Madison Bumgarner (2.44 ERA), who is 7-3 at home with a 1.77 ERA. The Under is 10-4 in the Giants last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, plus 7-3 under the total when Bumgarner faces a team with a losing record. And the Under is 3-1-2 in the last six meetings.
Bob Balfe
Jaguars -1
The Bengals are a veteran team that has a few position battles, but for the most part there is a big gap between the starters and 2nd team. Jacksonville is a young and energetic football team that probably is more excited to play in a game like this opposed to the starters of Cincinnati who for the most part have their position locked up. In this heat I favor the younger receivers of the Jaguars. The Cincinnati Secondary is a mess right now so I do expect the passing game to find some deep ball shots. I am not of fan of Cincinnati’s Offensive Line once the starters come out of the game. Penalties make these games unwatchable as they get into the second half.
Mets -130
The Mets have been crushing the baseball. All it takes is one big inning and the Phillies just don’t have the offense to get back into the game. Velsquez is prone to give up the home run ball which means on swing of the bat could make it an uphill climb for the Phillies. Gsellman will get his first start today. This is a young pitcher that keeps the ball down and strikes out a lot of guys.
DAVE COKIN
PADRES VS MARLINS
PLAY: PADRES F5
Straight starting pitcher play here. San Doego righty Luis Perdomo is really nothing more than a #4 starter at this point, although he has shown some improvement lately. But Justin Nicolino is the key to this call. The lefty is back up from the minors for another start, but that’s only because Andrew Cashner got scratched and the Marlins are pretty much stuck for a pitcher at this point.
Nicolino has yet to establish he can succeed in The Show. He’s a finesse lefty and actually, it’s not like he’s even doing especially well at AAA. Nicolino at the major league level has been beyond bad. Opposing hitters have hit him hard, and the southpaw just doesn’t have a put away pitch. 30 K’s in 65 innings is not a recipe for success, and perhaps even more telling is the fact Nicolino has only 49 whiffs in 85 minor league frames this season. It’s not like I’m going to auto-fade every pitcher with a low K rate, but Nicolino is beyond that. When that many balls are put into play, big innings are simply going to happen more than they ought to.
Once this game gets to the bullpen the advantage clearly shifts to the Marlins. So this is a game where I definitely feel playing the first half rather than the full game is the logical move. I’ll hope Perdomo builds off what was a very good last outing and I’ll back the Padres with a F5 wager here.
Brad Wilton
My comp play winner for Sunday is the Reds and the Diamondbacks to play Over the total at Chase Field.
After an Under on Friday night between the teams, the Reds pushed last night's game Over the total all by themselves, as they plated 13 runs.
Look for another big runs day as the Reds have now been Over the total in 6 of their last 9 games, while the Diamondbacks have landed Over the total in 7 of their previous 10 affairs.
Overall, Arizona is now 22-5 Over the total their last 27 home games!
Both Homer Bailey and Archie Bradley have seen 2 of their last 3 starts slip Over the total, and for the season the Over is 12-6-1 when Bradley takes the mound.
Have to believe the runs will add up to an Over when these 9 innings have been finished.
Reds-Diamondbacks Over the total.
3* CINCINNATI-ARIZONA OVER
Chris Jordan
The New York Yankees have dismantled the Baltimore Orioles, 14-4 and 13-5 the last two nights. The Yankees are now charging hard, having won four in a row.
Tonight I'll play them, minus a small number, as something has this team inspired, winning its last four games by a combined final of 37-10. Sounds more like a football score.
Forget for a moment the Yankees will get a crack at Kevin Gausman, who is 0-9 with a 5.32 ERA away from Camden Yards this season, let's focus on the fact the pinstripes have quietly climbed to 5 1/2 games back in the American League East, and just 2 1/2 games back in the A.L. Wild Card race. The Yankees are in fourth, while the Orioles are in third.
This is a much different Baltimore team that was riding first place much of the summer, but since June 29 - when the team was 17 games above .500 at 47-30 - has slipped dramatically. Since then, the Orioles are 23-29, they've lost three in a row and seven of 11, and their pitching ranks in the lower half of the league in August, with a 5.68 ERA - fourth worst in the bigs,
The Yankees, meanwhile, rank sixth in the bigs with a .276 batting average this month. Their 133 runs in August rank fourth in baseball.
Look for New York to get it done, and continue its surge into the playoff picture.
1* YANKEES
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins, and I'm playing the home team in this showdown on the Run Line. The Jays lit into the Twins Friday night in Rogers Centre, using a 15-hit attack to win 15-8. Last night it was an 8-7 victory. I expect a lot of the offense in this one, as Toronto continues to surge while vying in the American League East.
I fully expect Dickey to end August on a strong note, as the veteran knuckleballer has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his four starts this month. He is in after limiting the shoddy Angels to two runs over 6 2/3 innings his last time out. Tonight he'll shut down the Twinkies.
Meanwhile, Gibson has been inconsistent this season. He pitches well every once in awhile, but can't seem to build on any of his strong outings. After a complete game against the Braves, he lasted five innings against the Tigers, allowing five runs on seven hits.
Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line.
4* BLUE JAYS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Pirates to complete the sweep at Miller Park as they hand the Brewers their 4th loss in as many day.
Pittsburgh sends former Yankees pitcher Ivan Nova to the mound, and he is coming off a complete game win over Houston his last time out, as he allowed just one run on 6 hits, while fanning 6.
Nova is now a perfect 3-0 in his new uniform, and better still, the Bucs have won ALL 4 of his starts!
Chase Anderson will counter for Milwaukee as they look to avoid being swept at home by the Pirates for the first time since the 2004 season, and Anderson doesn't usually work deep into ball games - just one start of more than 5 complete innings in his last 10! - and is the owner of a 7-10 record with a 4.99 ERA.
The Pirates have had their struggles in Milwaukee over the years, this weekend doesn't appear to be one in which they are struggling.
Go with Pittsburgh to get the sweep.
2* PITTSBURGH
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 110-87 run with free picks: Tampa Bay at HOUSTON (-120).
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Tampa Bay Rays have long been out of the playoff picture. They're 18.5 games behind the American League East-leading Toronto Blue Jays, and they're 15.5 games back in the wild card race. Point blank, they're insignificant. On the other hand, the Houston Astros are very much in the playoff picture, as they're just 7.5 back of the Texas Rangers in the A.L. West, sitting in second place. The Astros will win today, as they, are significant.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Houston is feeling it right now, as it's won three straight and seven of 10. The Astros are 36-28 at home, where the humidity plays hell on visitors, and will victimize the Rays tonight. I love how the offense has balanced out of late, and expect the Astros to hit the ball well today.
BOTTOM LINE is - Tampa Bay has struggled this month, hitting just .251, ranking in the bottom half of the bigs. I won't list pitchers in this one, because I don't think it really matters who throws for either team, but I can tell you Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer tows an MLB-worst 17 losses into this one.
2* HOUSTON
Brandon Lee
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -105
New York has caught lightning in a bottle of late. The Yankees have won 4 straight and during this stretch have lit up the scoreboard with 37 runs. They have absolutely tormented Orioles pitching in the first two games of the series, scoring a ridiculous 27 runs on 36 hits. I see no reason not to ride out this heater, as Baltimore will send out Kevin Gausman, who is 0-9 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.552 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. Yankees counter with veteran C.C. Sabathia, who is coming off a strong outing at Seattle, where he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 7 strikeouts in 7 innings. Sabathia has enjoyed facing the Orioles in his career, as he's 21-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 38 starts against them.