Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Friday, August 26th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Brandon Shively
California vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +20
This game is being played on a neutral in Australia. I don’t think that this neutral field will benefit either team so I am going to exploit the head to head matchup here. Cal is a team that went 9-27 combined from 2012 to 2014 before winning 8 games last year, behind a QB (Goff) that got drafted in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. This is also a Cal team that has only been a favorite away from home 3 times in the last 4 years. Cal lost their top 6 receivers and 5 of their top 6 tacklers. While Cal will have a reliable QB in Davis Webb from Texas Tech, he doesn’t have a lot of talent around him and it will take time for Webb to get in sync with these new receivers. I will also note that Cal has a new offensive coordinator. While it’s still the ‘Air Raid’ offense, there are new schemes being installed and it will take time before the Bears are putting up 40+ points. With only 3 seniors starting on defense, I like Hawaii to score enough points to cover this spread.
Hawaii is 5-0 ATS in Week 1 the last five years and are undervalued in this spot. There's a new Head Coach for Hawaii and he used to play for the Rainbow Warriors. Nick Rolovich was the QB for Hawaii and will have former teammate Brian SMith as the offensive coordinator and associate head coach. I think these two guys are going to gel great and Hawaii can only get better as a team. Rolovich was the OC at Nevada the last 4 years. Rolovich came to Nevada after a wildly productive four-year run at Hawaii, where he directed one of the top passing offenses in the nation. He was the quarterbacks coach all four seasons and spent the last two years as the Warriors' offensive coordinator. In Rolovich’s first game with Nevada in 2012, Rolovich beat Cal, 31-24, as a 12 point road dog, so their is some ‘deja vu’ here and a great storyline.
Hawaii returns 9 players on offense (73 offensive line starts). Senior QB Woolsey should be able to lead the team on some scores against this soft Cal defense. While Hawaii’s weakness is their secondary, the Cal Bears passing game is not going to be up to full speed yet. I think Hawaii will be improved offensively from last year and Cal will struggle to score, especially touchdowns and the defense is not good enough to offset the offensive regression.
Special Teams: Senior utility kicker Sanchez was one of only five kickers nationally to handle all duties. As a field goal kicker, he converted 8-of-11 attempts, including two from 47 yards and a long of 50 to earn all-Mountain West Honorable Mention. So we have a quality FG kicker on our side here as well. While we are looking for touchdowns, all scores will help and this game should have it’s fair share of field goal opportunities.