Check out Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Saturday, August 27th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Carlo Campanella
Chiefs vs. Bears
Play: Chiefs -1
The KC Chiefs have started this Preseason off at 0-2, but they're playing much better than their record indicates. They lost their opener to Seattle, 17-16, after allowing a "Hail Mary" TD on the last play of the game. They followed that with a road loss in Los Angeles, 21-20, despite out-gaining the Rams 382 offensive yards to 264 total yards! Chiefs HC Andy Reid knows that you MUST build a "winning culture" during the exhibition season if you want to win during the Regular season, which is why these Chiefs went 4-0 during the 2015 NFL-X, scoring 24 points or more in 3 of those 4 games. The Bears offensive line is terrible and they have no talent at the RB position after losing All-Pro RB Matt Forte in the off-season. Expect the Chiefs to shut down this Bear's offense and get their 1st victory of the season on Saturday.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia @ Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis -3
Indianapolis lost on an interception of a two-point conversion try, but the good news was Andrew Luck played for the first time since last year and was eight-of-eight for 71 yards behind an improved offensive line. Backup quarterback Scott Tolzien also was effective completing 13 of 18 passes for 107 yards with no interceptions. In addition, the Colts gained 93 yards on the ground on 23 carries. Philadelphia beat Pittsburgh 17-0, however, the Eagles had the luxury of playing against Landry Jones, who threw four interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown by Nolan Carroll. Sam Bradford was 14-of-19 for 115 yards and Chase Daniel 10 of 16 for 82 yards. Carson Wentz is still recovering from an injury and won't play in this game but he's hoping he'll be ready for Week 4 action. The Colts lost their first two preseason games last year and then came back with a 24-14 win over the Rams in Week 3. The Eagles won their first home game and then beat rival Pittsburgh, but now they have another road contest against a Colts team that expects to play its starters for at least a half and have Luck and Tolzien both playing well. Lay the points on the Colts.
Teddy Covers
Philadelphia vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Philadelphia
The Indianapolis Colts have one goal in Saturday’s preseason tilt against the Eagles – avoid more injuries! That’s not a recipe for preseason success, especially from a favorite. But all the notes and quotes coming out of Indianapolis this week are focused on Indy’s barrage of injuries; most notably in their secondary.
Indy doesn’t have many healthy bodies in their secondary. Cornerbacks Jalil Brown, D’Joun Smith, Tevin Mitchel, Vontae Davis, Patrick Robinson, and Antonio Cromartie all won’t play. Head coach Chuck Pagano said that his staff would have to get ‘creative’ to fill the holes at defensive back on Saturday, talking about using safeties as cornerbacks. In fact, Indy will be without 13 injured players (including six defensive STARTERS) and potentially 14 – starting offensive tackle Joe Reitz is a big question mark here. And if Reitz doesn’t play, don’t expect Andrew Luck to stay in the game into the third quarter – Chuck Pagano is not going to leave him in there to take vicious hits.
Let Chuck Pagano tell you what you need to know. “It makes it tough, but we’ve got to go. That’s why we challenge every one of these guys that comes through here to prepare like starters because it’s next-man-up. You guys get tired of hearing me say it, but it’s reality. If some of those guys thought I was kidding, thought we were kidding, we were lying about next-man-up, they’re going to get a big dose of reality if they haven’t already because they’re going to trot out there. Somebody’s going to have to play.”
More Pagano, basically telling us that he doesn’t care if Indy wins or loses: “You’ve got to look through it with the right lens. I’m not worried about numbers, stats, those kinds of things….“Just continue to evaluate these guys and it’s a great opportunity for the young players. We’re going to get to look at a lot of young guys that normally wouldn’t get the amount of reps that they get in the third preseason game.”
Philly is 2-0 SU and ATS here in the preseason, and Doug Pederson is exactly the kind of coach who wants to win these meaningless exhibitions in August. The Eagles have one of the best backup QB’s in the league in Chase Daniel, expected to play the rest of the way after Sam Bradford sits. That gives Philly a legitimate QB edge in the second half of this preseason tilt. Even if the Eagles don’t dominate this game early (and they could, given Indy’s woes), I expect them to be in control late!
Marc Lawrence
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates -140
Edges - Pirates: Jameson Taillon 2.54 ERA with 0.95 WHIP last 7 starts; and 45 Ks with 5 BBs last 8 overall starts. Brewers: Jimmy Nelson 1-6 with 8.21 ERA and 1.88 WHIP last 7 overall starts; and 1-5 last 6 August team starts. With Nelson reeling in season-worst form, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Jim Feist
Cincinnati at Arizona
Pick: Under
Cincy has had a nice second half surge because of improved pitching. Anthony DeSclafani (3.27 ERA) goes here, at 7-2. He allowed four runs on eight hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out six in Sunday's loss to the Dodgers, 4-0. The Under is 5-1-1 in DeSclafani's last 7 road starts, plus 5-2-2 under when he starts with 5 days of rest. Arizona is home and the Under is 19-7 in the Diamondbacks last 26 Saturday games. The under is 56-24-6 in the last 86 meetings, including 33-16-2 under at Arizona.
DAVE COKIN
LIONS AT RAVENS
PLAY: LIONS +2.5
I’m expecting a typical “dress rehearsal” Week Three game here as the Lions take on the Ravens. That’s from a personnel standpoint, with both teams expected to give their projected starters ample playing time this evening. But beyond that, I’m getting a read that the visitors might be feeling more of a need to establish something positive tonight.
Joe Flacco has not taken a snap since he got hurt last season. So I make this more about getting back under center, finding a little rhythm and maybe even taking a hit or two to get over any mental hurdles that might still exist for the veteran Ravens quarterback. I’m sure head coach John Harbaugh would like to see his team perform well as this game is the most important of the pre-season and the regulars probably will not play at all next week. But drives and scores might be more of a bonus in terms of the overall big picture emphasis for the Ravens tonight.
The Lions might be more intent on actually getting the football in the end zone tonight. Head coach Jim Caldwell made that pretty clear with his comments this week. Here’s some of what Caldwell had to say.
“We just haven’t been able to finish drives like we’ve wanted to. We’ve moved the ball up and down the field pretty well. The most important thing when you get down there close, you’ve got to be able to come away with more than three points. So we’re looking for that and for efficiency across the board.”
Caldwell will apparently play the starters for the entire first half, and it’s pretty clear from the quote as to what he wants to see happen tonight. So my assessment is that there’s more urgency on the Detroit side and those are the type of notes that will usually get me interested in a side.
Here’s why I’m limiting this to a half unit play. I won’t try and excuse this, but the fact is Caldwell made these comments on Wednesday and I didn’t see it till Friday. That’s my fault, and in the interim, the line moved. Obviously, I’m not the only one with access to the coach quotes, and this line, which had been available at 3.5 is now almost exclusively 2.5.
I still want to play the Lions off the info, but I’m no going to swallow added juice to buy the game to 3. I don’t think that is a smart move in pre-season games where typical key numbers are of less importance. So I’ll have to apparently settle for +2.5, and with the value having been diminished, I’ll make this a half unit call on the Lions.
Sleepyj
Chiefs / Bears Over 41
Two teams with 0-2 records thus far in the preseason...Chiefs had two 1 point losses and I'm sure they will be looking to get that sour taste out of their mouths....KC has been throwing a decent amount with Smith and this game sets up for another decent passing game as well..Bears backend isn't anything special and the Chiefs really needed to round out the passing game the last few years...With some targets now, I think they look to ramp that area up this year....This would be a good game to get that going and needing scoring to win a game finally....Bears lost last week on the road to NE, but looked pretty good actually....Cutler was effective and getting more time here should churn out some more points...Bears scored 11 last week with the starting offense on the field...Bears ran the ball 30 times last week, but only has 16 passing completions...Those 16 completions went to 9 different guys...Bears will look to condense that down some I believe...In addition to shrinking down the options, I think they look to get more timing and passing going..Always good to do that in the preseason against a good defense....I think we see plenty of passing in this one today..Limited running plays even from the 2nd unit..Over we go.
Rob Vinciletti
Phillies vs. Mets
Play: Mets -1½
The Mets qualify in a solid 29-5 dominator system that pertains to favorites off a blowout win vs a team off a blowout loss that scored 4 or less runs. The Mets flattened Philly last night 9-4 and have most of their big bats back. The Phillies are scoring under 3 runs the past week and things wont get easier tonight against Syndergaard. Philadelphia has Hellickson on the mound and he has a 7+ Era vs the Mets, Syndergaard is 3-0 with a 1.40 era vs the Phillies and has a stellar 2.63 home Era this year. Look for the Mets to coast.
Scott Spreitzer
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -112
The Yankees youth movement is paying off as they won their third in a row beating their opponents by a combined score of 24-5. Chad Green is coming off two quality starts allowing just one run and seven hits in 12 innings with the Yankees beating Toronto 1-0 and then losing 2-0 to the Angels. Green has 11 stikeouts and walked only one batter in the two games. Baltimore now is 28-36 on the road after last night's blowout loss and the Yankees have won five of the last seven meetings. In 3 2/3 innings against the Yanks this season, Dylan Bundy gave up three runs and seven hits. Also, Bundy has a 4.94 ERA in day games compared to 2.67 at night. The Orioles have lost 12 of their last 16 games at Yankee Stadium.
Bob Harvey
Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates -147
The Pirates look to keep their playoff hopes alive when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers in the second-game of a four-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET at Miller Park where Pittsburgh is a -147 moneyline favorite. The total is 8.5.
The Pirates (64-61, 30-31 road) have managed to stay above the .500 mark despite a disappointing season from Andrew McCutcheon who is hitting .250 with 19 home runs and 55 RBI’s while. Sterling Marte and Gregory Polanco have been steady; Marte is batting .304 with 43 stolen bases while Polanco has a team leading 19 homers and 72 runs drive in.
The Brewers (56-71, 36-30 home) have done well against the Bucs especially at Miller Park. Since 2007, the Brewers are 64-18 vs. their counterparts from Pittsburgh.
Jameson Taillon (3-3, 2.92 ERA) has been better than advertised. The former first round pick has looked every bit as good as advertised through the first 12 starts of his career. He's coming off one of his best outings of the season, striking out a career-high eight batters while holding the Astros to two runs and four hits in a victory. It marked the third time that Tallion worked eight innings this season.
Jimmy Nelson (7-13, 4.26 ERA) snapped a six-game losing streak his last time out by holding the Rockies to two runs despite seven hits in six innings. During his losing streak, Nelson had posted an 8.04 ERA.
Pittsburgh is 7-2 in Taillon’s last nine starts.
MMA OddsBreaker
Kyle Bochniak vs. Enrique Barzola
Pick: Kyle Bochniak
Enrique Barzola won The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America season two thanks in part to his one-dimensional wrestling style, which allowed him to control Horacio Gutierrez and win the Finale. I don't think that style will work this time around in his first post-TUF fight, despite him dropping down to his more natural featherweight division. Kyle Bochniak is ferocious in the cage, displaying big time power on the feet and showcasing some solid grappling chops of his own. Barzola is going to have his hands full if he only cares about getting takedowns. Bochniak looked great in his short notice UFC debut in an absolute war against Charles Rosa where he came up short, but now he has a full training camp for this fight so I think he'll look even better this time around.
SPORTS WAGERS
S. Alvey/K. Casey Under 1½ +163
Kevin Casey may be on life support in the UFC. He has one win in his UFC career, and has a handful of no contests and a draw to accompany two knockout losses. Amongst those no contests is an overturned win in which he was popped for a banned substance and the other was one of the poorest displays of sportsmanship when he received a 'could not continue' from the referee after a gentle eye graze was embellished in order for Casey to avoid fighting Carlos Junior. Casey has been knocked out twice, once to Josh Samman in 2013, and most recently to ground specialist Rafael Natal in January. This was Natal's first knockout win since fighting in the UFC, spanning nine victories. After a draw vs. Elvis Mutapcic in June, in which Casey largely took Elvis down and won the fight with top control, the UFC has setup a horrible stylistic matchup vs. Smile'n Sam Alvey.
Of Alvey's 17 KO wins, 12 of them have occurred in the first round, including three first round KO's in his past six fights. Another fight would be a first round submission win and a first round KO loss. That's five of Alvey's last six fights ending in the first round, with the only outlier being a decision loss to an extremely talented defensive fighter in Elias Theodorou. This will be Alvey's third fight in nine weeks, and it appears after taking a bad style match with Elias in Canada in June, the matchmakers are gifting this lovable company man a couple of perfect matches for his style. Alvey has elite takedown defense, which will completely neutralize Casey. This will put Casey in a position where he has to stand and trade, much like Theodorou did in June. The main difference is, Casey is extremely hittable, being tagged 120 times in his past two fights. Those two opponents have no reputation for being powerful strikers while Alvey has been known throughout his career as a 1st round finisher. Alvey is just 30 years old, he has 27 professional wins and is in the midst of his fighting prime. It is clear where he stands. Unable to beat the likes of future contenders Theodorou or Derek Brunson, Alvey has found a comfort zone in destroying mid-level talent.
The UFC have begun showcasing bigger fights on the exclusive prelims, essentially creating three mini cards on every fight night. The culmination of each one of the segments is featured as a main event which the UFC is selling on Fight Pass or on other large networks separately. While there is no suggestion of match fixing by any means, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that match making is being used to showcase fights with electric finishing potential, and this is a clear case for Saturday's Preliminary main event between Casey and Alvey. Thus, the fight to finish under 7:30 of fight time offers up amazing value given the circumstances in this one. Stylistically, Casey does not have the tools to win inside this range and that jacks the odds up in our favour. This matchup will result in Casey standing and trading with Alvey, and Smile'n Sam has a high probability of shutting Casey's lights out in round one. That’s how we’ll play it.
Demian Maia +101 over Carlos Condit
Saturday August 27, 9:30 PM EST. The decision to drop to Welterweight has been very successful thus far for Demain Maia. He comes into this fight reeling off five straight victories in the 170 lb division, with wins over Gunnar Nelson, Matt Brown, and Neil Magny in his past three bouts. Maia is regarded as the very best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist in the UFC and he fights to his strengths, implementing an elite takedown/ground game no matter who the opponent.
Carlos Condit comes into the match 2-4 in his past six, with wins coming against Thiago Alves and Martin Kampmann, two unranked welterweights. The losses he has suffered have been vs. the divisions very best however, losing title fights to GSP and Robbie Lawler, and top contender fights to Tyron Woodley and vintage Johny Hendricks. Condit is an elite striker with great stamina, and while most of his losses have been primarily striking matchups resulting in KO's when he wins and decisions when he loses, he hasn't faced someone with this type of submission game in his career.
7-0, 12-0, 6-0, 3-0... These are the successful takedown numbers against Condit scored in his fights while fighting GSP, Hendricks, Kampmann, and Woodley. Condit has a horrible takedown defense, only avoiding the takedown 40% of the time. This area of weakness plays directly into his opponents main strength and while Condit has maintained a lot of offense from his back, attempting this versus someone of Maia's submission caliber, will put him in danger early and often.
Condit has been at the top of the welterweight division for many years, and has been a sort of gatekeeper for the title holders/contenders losing to the best of the division, and following a match vs. Robbie Lawler in which he out struck the now former champion 176 to 92, being given a decision loss had to have been extremely demoralizing. Leading up to this fight, Condit has been openly critical of Maia's style, and critical of how certain fighters are graded on score cards. At first this seemed like one man's opinion on the state of the sport as a whole but more recently, Condit has revealed his disinterest in fighting for much longer, hinting at retirement. Now the comments seem to be creating excuses for a loss that hasn't even happened yet.
Stylistically, this fight gives Maia a huge advantage early, and as the fight wears on, the gas tank for the much older Maia will be a factor in Condit's favour, assuming Condit still has the will to win left in his tank. Maia's dominant top game will allow him to win rounds with ease if and when the fight hits the ground and if he is unable to score a submission victory, by the time the fights hits rounds four and five, this one may have already been decided on the cards through the first three. We aren't in the business of predicting outcomes but all indications are that the wrong fighter is favoured in this one, and Condit is currently favoured based on his entertaining style and top level fights over the past six years. The value is on the underdog in the UFC's main event once again.
Brad Wilton
With Overs against San Diego on the 13th, and Carolina on the 20th, the Titans have now played Over the total in 5 straight and 6 of their last 7 dating back to last year's regular season.
I expect nothing different on Saturday night when they visit an Oakland team that is playing their first game in front of the Black Hole crowd, and have scored 43 points in their first two preseason games, and have had a few extra days to get ready for this game - as they last played on Thursday the 18th.
Week Three of the preseason has been a good week for the Silver and Black to score points, as they come into this game with a 7-0 Over mark the past 7 preseasons on Week Three.
Points to add up tonight as the Titans and Raiders play Over.
1* TENNESSEE-OAKLAND OVER
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins, and I'm playing the home team in this showdown on the Run Line. The Jays lit into the Twins last night in Rogers Centre, using a 15-hit attack to win 15-8. I expect a lot of the same in this one, as Toronto continues to surge while vying in the American League East.
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Stroman comes in with a 2-1 mark, and 2.45 ERA, over his last six starts with 47 strikeouts over 40 1/3 innings. He has struck out at least eight hitters in each of his previous two starts, and bring a 3.02 ERA since July 1 into this one. His arsenal will prove to be too much for Minnesota's paltry lineup tonight.
Meanwhile, while I know Santana has been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last two months - his 1.91 ERA over his last 11 starts is impressive - I'm not exactly sure he will be able to contain this lineup, and will get the run support from a team that has lost eight in a row.
Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line.
3* BLUE JAYS -1.5